Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective

Mäll, Martin; Nakamura, Ryota; Suursaar, Ülo; Shibayama, Tomoya

doi:10.1007/s11069-020-03911-2

Cited by 27 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 57 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The model selection criteria follows that of Mäll et al. (2020), due to their horizontal resolution and the ability to better capture ETCs, as discussed by Zappa, Shaffrey, Hodges (2013), Zappa, Shaffrey, Hodges, et al. (2013).…”

Section: Case Description and Numerical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among these studies, the intensity of TCs becomes stronger under future climate conditions mainly due to an increase in sensible and latent heat fluxes (Kanada et al., 2017; Nakamura et al., 2016). Meanwhile, PGW method has been employed for global warming impact assessment of extra‐tropical cyclones (ETCs) which can acquire baroclinic instability as the main energy source (Mäll et al., 2020). The results indicate toward little to no change in the intensification of ETCs, however showed southward extension of strong wind fields in the Baltic Sea from the North Atlantic approaching ETCs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Pseudo Global Warming Sensitivity Experiments of Subtropical Cyclone Anita (2010) Under RCP 8.5 Scenario

Nakamura

Mäll

2021

JGR Atmospheres

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The potential changes in the future cyclone activities around the world are important topics of discussion and research across the socio‐economic spectrum. This study investigated the subtropical cyclone (SC) Anita (2010) in the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) under the extreme future pathway scenario RCP8.5. The study focused on thermodynamic and other dynamical changes of Anita by analyzing the storms intensity change under future background conditions. Ensemble simulations considering a combination of various physical schemes and initial conditions were carried out by using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW‐WRF). The historical case runs showed agreement with the objective analysis, meeting the criteria that defines a SC. The future results show that SC Anita will become more intense and likely transition into a tropical cyclone when only considering changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). Results that considered changes both in SST and air temperature (AT) show a reduction in cyclone surface wind velocities and an increase in the minimum sea level pressure (relative to SST only). The results considering a combination of environmental changes such as SST, AT, relative humidity, geopotential height, and wind velocity show a slight increase in the cyclone intensity. These results suggest that the future conditions are favorable for the development of SCs in the SAO. In addition, the possibility for SCs to transition into tropical cyclones will have a higher occurrence of probability, leading to potentially more severe cyclone associated consequences in the SAO region.

show abstract

Section: Case Description and Numerical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pseudo Global Warming Sensitivity Experiments of Subtropical Cyclone Anita (2010) Under RCP 8.5 Scenario

Nakamura

Mäll

2021

JGR Atmospheres

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A pseudo-climate study by Mäll et al (2020) reported an expanding area of extreme waves for past Baltic Sea cyclones under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. While the results were not conclusive, and included no north-to-south cyclones, it's possible that the 2019 storm could respond in a similar way.…”

Section: In a Future Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: A Baltic Sea case study

Björkqvist¹,

Rikka²,

Alari³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. This paper presents how to account for the lack of sampling variability in model data when they are combined with wave measurements. We addressed the dissimilarities between the types of data by either: i) low-pass filtering the observations or ii) adding synthetic sampling variability to the model. Measurement–model times series combined with these methods served as the basis for return period estimates of a high wave event in January 2019. During this storm northerly wind speeds in the Baltic Sea rose to 32.5 m s−1 and an unprecedented significant wave height of 8.1 m was recorded in the Bothnian Sea sub-basin. Both methods successfully consolidated the combined time series but produced slightly different results: using low-pass filtered observations gave lower estimates for the return period than using model data with added sampling variability. Extremes in both types of data followed the same type of theoretical distributions, and our best estimate for the return period was 104 years (95 % confidence 39–323 years). A similar wave event can potentially be more likely in the future climate, and this aspect was discussed qualitatively.

show abstract

“…Extratropical cyclones (ETC) are a dominant feature of the midlatitudes (Mäll et al., 2017, 2020; Ulbrich et al., 2009; Yáñez‐Morroni et al., 2018). The most intense of these ETC can have huge socioeconomic repercussions on the impacted regions due to the associated strong winds, heavy rain and storm surges (Befort et al., 2018; Bitencourt et al., 2011; Catto, et al., 2010; Domingues et al., 2019; Parise et al., 2009; Pezzi et al., 2016; Piva et al., 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Physical Parameterization Schemes in Capturing the Characteristics of Extratropical Cyclones Over the South Pacific Ocean

Gómez

Mäll

Aránguiz

2021

Earth and Space Science

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The extratropical cyclone (ETC) of August 2015 in central Chile was investigated using the WRF model to analyze the sensitivity of meteorological variables to different physical parameterization schemes. This study assesses the performance of different physical schemes in the simulation of track, core pressure, mean sea level pressure, wind direction and wind speed associated with ETC over the South Pacific. The analysis uses a total of 36 sensitivity experiments, consisting of: two microphysics schemes; three surface layer and planetary boundary layer; two cumulus schemes; two longwave and shortwave radiation; and Noah for land surface. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the cumulus, planetary boundary layer and surface layer scheme have a fundamental role in the characterization of ETC track and intensity, while the microphysics scheme plays a secondary role in determining these variables. On the other hand, long‐ and shortwave radiation do not have a significant impact. The sensitivity experiments indicate that exp24 provides the best results overall. The results of this work allow the selection time of the different physical schemes to be optimized according to the ETC characteristics that are to be simulated

show abstract

Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective

Cited by 27 publications

References 57 publications

Pseudo Global Warming Sensitivity Experiments of Subtropical Cyclone Anita (2010) Under RCP 8.5 Scenario

Pseudo Global Warming Sensitivity Experiments of Subtropical Cyclone Anita (2010) Under RCP 8.5 Scenario

Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: A Baltic Sea case study

The Role of Physical Parameterization Schemes in Capturing the Characteristics of Extratropical Cyclones Over the South Pacific Ocean

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About