An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed

Sunde, Michael G.; He, Hong S.; Hubbart, Jason A.; Urban, Michael A.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.025

Cited by 44 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 70 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Many scholars worldwide have discussed the relationship between urbanization, global change, resources, and environment from the perspective of sustainable development on a global scale [26][27][28], exploring the interaction between urbanization and natural ecosystems and global change at different spatial scales [29][30][31]. For example, André Mascarenhas [32] explored the impact of population and urbanization development in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area on land occupation and ecosystem services, and the results show that each pattern can have both positive and negative effects on the supply of ecosystem services. Fernanda Coyado Reverte [33], taking the Taubaté Basin in Brazil as the research area, explored the impact of biodiversity in highly urbanized areas on ecosystem services.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–Temporal Interaction Relationship between Ecosystem Services and Urbanization of Urban Agglomerations in the Transitional Zone of Three Natural Regions

Pan

Shi

2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Clarifying the spatial interaction relationship between urbanization and multiple ecosystem services (ESs) is a prerequisite for reducing the impact of urbanization on the ecological environment and coordinating urbanization and ecological environmental protection. Urbanization is especially significant for ecologically fragile areas, where ecosystems are particularly sensitive to changes in urban patterns. This study considered the Lan–Xi (LX) urban agglomeration in three natural transitional regions using socio-economic, ecological environment, and other data, through a variety of methods, to supersede administrative boundaries and to explore the relationship between urbanization and ESs on a grid scale. The results revealed a significant negative spatial correlation between the levels of urbanization and comprehensive ESs, indicating that rapid urbanization has led to a decline in regional ESs. However, with the rapid urbanization trend from 2010 to 2018, the ESs in the LX region showed an upward trend because the implementation of ecological protection and restoration projects greatly offset the decline in ESs caused by urban expansion. We found a positive correlation between nutrient purification and the levels of urbanization among various ESs and four principal types of spatial–temporal interactions between ESs and urbanization levels. Among them, the high–high cluster areas occupied the smallest proportion, and the low–low cluster areas occupied the largest proportion.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–Temporal Interaction Relationship between Ecosystem Services and Urbanization of Urban Agglomerations in the Transitional Zone of Three Natural Regions

Pan

Shi

2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although the climate variables were simulated using the RCM and updated emission scenarios, there are several uncertainties associated with the climate and hydrological models. Both hydrological and climate model simulations have not considered land-use dynamics; but land use has a significant role in the partitioning of the hydrologic components into infiltration, interception, and evapotranspiration (Wagner et al 2016;Marhaento et al 2018;Sunde et al 2018;Woldesenbet et al 2018). Besides, land use dynamics will directly influence the land surface-atmosphere interaction and consequently alter the climate processes and patterns (Deng et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Teklay

Dile

Asfaw

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.

show abstract

“…So, the methodology can be applied in different research areas but the parameters in the scenarios should be changed to meet local policies. Secondly, to ensure the comparability we did not consider the effect of climate change, although studies have shown it influences the water yield [17,26]. Thus, future studies could combine climate change models with the models we use.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The spread of the impervious surfaces influences the water yield mainly through accelerated surface runoff and evapotranspiration reduction [24,25]. It has been demonstrated that the impervious surface projected from 2011 to 2051 in Hinkson Creek Watershed in central Missouri, Midwestern US, would make the surface runoff increase by 9.3% and the evapotranspiration reduce by 2.4% [26]. Moreover, these changes have been addressed by hydrologic models, such as Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran [27], the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model [28] and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Strict Cropland Protection on Water Yield: A Case Study of Wuhan, China

Wang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Land use and land cover change is a critical factor of ecosystem services, while water yield plays a vital role in sustainable development. The impact of urban expansion on water yield has long been discussed, but water yield change resulting from cropland protection is seldom concerned. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of cropland protection on water yield by comparing the water yield in two cropland protection scenarios (i.e., Strict Cropland Protection scenario and No Cropland Protection scenario). Specifically, the LAND System Cellular Automata for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE) model was employed to simulate land use maps in the two scenarios, while Water Yield module in the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to calculate water yield. The results show water yield would increase by 8.7 × 107 m3 in the No Cropland Protection scenario and 9.4 × 107 m3 in the Strict Cropland Protection scenario. We conclude that implementation of strict cropland protection in rapid urbanizing areas may cause more water yield, which is also a prerequisite of potential urban flooding risk. This study throws that it is not wise to implement strict cropland protection policy in an area of rapid urbanization.

show abstract

An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed

Cited by 44 publications

References 70 publications

Spatial–Temporal Interaction Relationship between Ecosystem Services and Urbanization of Urban Agglomerations in the Transitional Zone of Three Natural Regions

Spatial–Temporal Interaction Relationship between Ecosystem Services and Urbanization of Urban Agglomerations in the Transitional Zone of Three Natural Regions

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Impacts of Strict Cropland Protection on Water Yield: A Case Study of Wuhan, China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About