An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows

Asch, Th.W.J. van; Tang, Chuan; Alkema, D.; Zhu, Jing; Zhou, Weili

doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0810-z

Cited by 66 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Runout models such Flow-2D, RAMMS, MassMove2D (Beguería et al, 2009), Debris Mobility Model (Kwan & Sun, 2006), and AschFlow (Luna et al, 2016) have seen much use in debris-flow hazard and risk assessment (e.g., M. Chang et al, 2017), but they require input on discharge, sediment concentration, initiation volumes, and entrainment. In any case, such models can offer insights into the relationships between inputs (e.g., rainfall) and consequence (e.g., runout;van Asch et al, 2014).…”

Section: Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake‐Induced Chains of Geologic Hazards: Patterns, Mechanisms, and Impacts

Fan

Scaringi

Korup

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

610

325

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Large earthquakes initiate chains of surface processes that last much longer than the brief moments of strong shaking. Most moderate‐ and large‐magnitude earthquakes trigger landslides, ranging from small failures in the soil cover to massive, devastating rock avalanches. Some landslides dam rivers and impound lakes, which can collapse days to centuries later, and flood mountain valleys for hundreds of kilometers downstream. Landslide deposits on slopes can remobilize during heavy rainfall and evolve into debris flows. Cracks and fractures can form and widen on mountain crests and flanks, promoting increased frequency of landslides that lasts for decades. More gradual impacts involve the flushing of excess debris downstream by rivers, which can generate bank erosion and floodplain accretion as well as channel avulsions that affect flooding frequency, settlements, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Ultimately, earthquake sequences and their geomorphic consequences alter mountain landscapes over both human and geologic time scales. Two recent events have attracted intense research into earthquake‐induced landslides and their consequences: the magnitude M 7.6 Chi‐Chi, Taiwan earthquake of 1999, and the M 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake of 2008. Using data and insights from these and several other earthquakes, we analyze how such events initiate processes that change mountain landscapes, highlight research gaps, and suggest pathways toward a more complete understanding of the seismic effects on the Earth's surface.

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Section: Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake‐Induced Chains of Geologic Hazards: Patterns, Mechanisms, and Impacts

Fan

Scaringi

Korup

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

610

325

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Another approach involves connecting a rainfall-infiltration-runoff simulation to the surface erosion model (van Asch et al, 2014;Melo et al, 2018). Although this can precisely treat debris flow initiation types 1) and 2), it requires multiple parameters related to water transportation (e.g., coefficient of saturated/unsaturated permeability) and soil strength (e.g., cohesion coefficient, internal friction angle).…”

Section: Treatment Of Debris Flow Initiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Simulation of Concurrent Debris Flow: How Slope Failure Locations Affect Predicted Damage

Yamanoi¹,

Oishi²,

Kawaike³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flow using only pre-disaster information has proven to be difficult as a result of problems in predicting the location of debris-flow initiation (i.e., slope failure). However, because catchment topography has concave characteristics, with all channels in a catchment joining each other as they flow downstream, it is possible to predict damage to downstream area using relatively inaccurate initiation points. Based on this, this paper presents methodologies employing debris-flow initiation points generated randomly using statistical slope failure prediction. A many-case simulation across numerous initiation points was performed to quantify the effect of slope-failure location in terms of deviations in the predicted water level and terrain deformation. It was found that the relative standard deviation diminished as the points approached the downstream area, indicating a location-based predictability effect. (131 words) Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 8 April 2020

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“…However, sophisticated automated techniques, like the application of genetic algorithms (e.g. Iovine et al, 2005;D'Ambrosio et al, 2006;Spataro et al, 2008;Terranova et al, 2015) has made it possible to obtain more exhaustive evaluations of the calibration parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

Melo

Asch

Zêzere

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

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An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows

Cited by 66 publications

References 41 publications

Earthquake‐Induced Chains of Geologic Hazards: Patterns, Mechanisms, and Impacts

Earthquake‐Induced Chains of Geologic Hazards: Patterns, Mechanisms, and Impacts

Predictive Simulation of Concurrent Debris Flow: How Slope Failure Locations Affect Predicted Damage

Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

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