An Integrated Framework for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Developing Adaptation Strategies for Coffee Growing Families in Mesoamerica

Abstract

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

“…Rather, qualitative evidence for the benefit of a practice was the cumulative result of questionnaires and focus groups with farmers based on their own perceived experiences of climate impacts on their crops, livelihoods and adaptation (Campos et al 2013;Baca et al 2014;Bacon et al 2014;Eakin et al 2014;Milan and Ruano 2014;Rahn et al 2014). Porch et al (2007) did calculate changes in production to assess the relative effect of climate variability as a driver of migration.…”

“…They use their analysis to stress that vulnerability will be exacerbated by climate change, but without use of future climate scenarios or projections. Only four studies used climate projections to construct a quantitative scenario of future climate impact as a baseline for adaptation: Baca et al (2014) and Rahn et al (2014) both used downscaled GCM projections from SRES A2a, to drive a climate suitability model (MAXENT) to produce an indicator of exposure to climate change. This indicator of climate change exposure was then used as a point of discussion with stakeholders with the aim to identify locally relevant adaptation strategies based on this information.…”

“…This has enabled them to produce information that is informed by largescale modelled future climate scenarios (A2, business as usual) with quantified uncertainty (generated by use of GCM ensembles, input in to DSSAT), but that is also locally relevant to the specific area using local case studies. Studies by Baca et al (2014) and Rahn et al (2014) and Ruane et al (2013) all discussed adaptation options post-impact assessment; there were no examples of studies that used an iterative process between researchers (impacts modeller, social scientist) and farmers to model the impact of local relevant adaptation strategies on households.…”

Learning through monitoring, evaluation and adaptations of the “Outcome Harvesting” tool

“…Projects of the Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP) of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (hereafter the fund) increasingly adopt CIAT science (e.g., Baca et al, 2014;Schroth et al, 2016) in project design, implementation and prioritization of sites and agricultural practices. CIAT climate and environmental assessments directly informed resilience projects in Comoros and Liberia.…”

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

“…In particular, decisionmakers want to better understand the relative adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers so that they can develop means of more explicitly enhancing adaptation in order to reduce overall vulnerability. Nonetheless, such information is extremely limited in many developing countries, and little is understood about the most current status of adaptive capacity within smallholder farming systems (although Eakin 2009 andBaca et al 2014 have sought to capture this in the same study region).…”