An Integrated Approach for Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Using Cloud Computing

Abstract

Abstract-The paper proposes an integrated approach for risk assessment of natural disasters using cloud computing, based on joint application of fuzzy logic models and an actuarial model. A hierarchical fuzzy logic system with several inputs and one output is designed. The risk assessment problem is defined as a multicriterial task that evaluates input variables (natural disaster indicators) and takes into account available information sources and the expert knowledge. The natural disaster indicators represent product of the probability of occurrence of a particular natural disaster and the aggregate loss caused by its action. The aggregate loss assessment is carried out by an actuarial model, more accurately, by the collective risk model. The main components of the collective risk model are discussed -the natural disaster magnitude (adverse events) and the negative consequences (severity of the damages). It is noted that the cloud computing is a model for providing on-demand Internet-based access to a shared pool of computing resources, including networks, storage and applications. The risk assessment results can support the state and local government to take more informed decisions regarding the efficient allocation of the available funding for the improvement of the population and infrastructure from natural disasters. The proposed fuzzy logic system with actuarial model is envisaged to be implemented as a part of an integrated information system for risk management of natural disasters in a cloud based environment. This system can be successfully used in e-government.Index Terms-Actuarial model, cloud computing, fuzzy logic model, natural disasters, risk assessment.

Cloud Computing in natural hazard modeling systems: Current research trends and future directions

“…Furthermore, the architectural design of communication network proposed by Ali et al [92] focused on effective flow of information for better preparedness against the disasters. The integrated approach devised by Zlateva et al [93] performed the risk assessment of natural disasters to calculate the probability of occurrence of a particular disaster for the effective preparedness. The outspread of various disasters can be predicted to take better informed decisions to stay prepared against the perilous disasters.…”

“…The stakeholders could input different desired risk scenarios into the platform developed by Aye et al [100] for possible mitigation measures for better disaster response management. The risk assessment result obtained in the integrated approach proposed by Zlateva et al [93] could provide the government with crucial information for taking more informed decision regarding the mobilization of the resources in post-disaster scenario.…”

“…The use of an actuarial model combined with Remote Sensing has been used to assess the damages caused by disasters such as flood and droughts. The aggregated loss after a disaster could be accounted for using an actuarial model in the approach explained by Zlateva et al [93] which was helpful in distribution of the available fundings for the population affected by the disasters. Jeyaseelan [53] emphasized on the use of Remote Sensing for quick damage assessment of drought and flood disasters.…”

“…Zou [88] provided a Cloud solution of MapReduce for data analysis of massive RS data including the preprocessing such as radiometric correction, geometric correction, mosaic and fusion and information extraction processes such as classification, transformation and index calculation. Zlateva et al [93] used the Cloud infrastructure to perform risk assessment of the natural disasters using a joint application of fuzzy logic models and an actuarial model. Various biodiversity indices at different resolutions were calculated using the marine life data in the system developed by Fujioka et al [108].…”

A Fuzzy Logic Method for Assessment of Risk Management Capability

“…There are many qualitative and quantitative methods for the risk management assessment [3]. However, it is necessary to point out, that the risk assessment from natural hazards is done under the subjective and uncertain conditions [4]. The fuzzy logic approach is an appropriate tool for risk management assessment.…”