An individual-based model to assess the spatial and individual heterogeneity of Brucella melitensis transmission in Alpine ibex

Lambert, Sébastien; Gilot‐Fromont, Emmanuelle; Toïgo, Carole; Marchand, Pascal; Petit, Élodie; Garin‐Bastuji, Bruno; Gauthier, D.; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Rossi, Sophie; Thébault, Anne

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109009

Cited by 9 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…MBIs são modelos estocásticos que representam cada indivíduo da população como uma entidadeúnica e discreta, possuindo ao menos uma característica que muda ao longo do seu ciclo de vida. Permite a inclusão de novas características como nos modelos compartimentais [Lambert et al 2020]. Além das classes utilizadas no modelo SIRé possível que cada indivíduo tenha uma ou mais características possibilitando a inserção de heterogeneidades individuais ao modelo.…”

Section: Resultados E Contribuiçõesunclassified

Estratégias para Alocação de Recursos de Controle Ótimo em Cenários Estocásticos

Filho¹,

Soares²,

Coelho³

2020

Anais Estendidos Do Simpósio Brasileiro De Computação Aplicada À Saúde (SBCAS 2020)

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A aplicação de modelos computacionais à epidemiologia tem contribuído para o entendimento da dinâmica de várias doenças infecciosas. Tais modelos estão sendo usados para simulações e predições em várias políticas de saúde pública contra a atual pandemia do COVID-19. Três exemplos amplamente utilizados são formulações determinísticas dos modelos compartimentais, baseados em indivíduos e baseados em redes complexas. Neste contexto, este trabalho propõe estudos sobre uma perspectiva estocástica destes modelos no intuito de inserir incerteza à dinâmica epidemiológica, bem como a obtenção de estratégias de controle ótimo para sua mitigação. Os resultados mostram reduções significativas na quantidade de indivíduos infectados.

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Section: Resultados E Contribuiçõesunclassified

Estratégias para Alocação de Recursos de Controle Ótimo em Cenários Estocásticos

Filho¹,

Soares²,

Coelho³

2020

Anais Estendidos Do Simpósio Brasileiro De Computação Aplicada À Saúde (SBCAS 2020)

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“…Targeted management strategies could be relevant in this case by maximizing the effectiveness while minimizing the costs of field operations and the negative impact of interventions on the ibex population. Indeed, in-depth knowledge of the host–pathogen system is now available, which notably revealed a strong spatial structure and heterogeneity for brucellosis transmission in the studied population [ 31 – 33 ]. More specifically, it has been highlighted that females transmit the infection in ~90% of cases [ 33 ] and that they are spatially structured in five subpopulations with nearly no female movements between them [ 31 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, in-depth knowledge of the host–pathogen system is now available, which notably revealed a strong spatial structure and heterogeneity for brucellosis transmission in the studied population [ 31 – 33 ]. More specifically, it has been highlighted that females transmit the infection in ~90% of cases [ 33 ] and that they are spatially structured in five subpopulations with nearly no female movements between them [ 31 ]. These subpopulations exhibit contrasted seroprevalence levels [ 31 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These subpopulations exhibit contrasted seroprevalence levels [ 31 ]. The subpopulations with the highest seroprevalence and abundance, that occupy a central position in the massif, are hotspots of transmission and act as sources for the subpopulations in the periphery, in particular due to movements of males between female subpopulations [ 33 ]. Based on knowledge accumulated on this brucellosis-ibex system since 2012, it is now possible to evaluate the relative efficacy of different management strategies, and to compare them with their counterparts targeting specific individuals or subpopulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To achieve this goal, we expanded the model developed in a previous study [ 33 ] to simulate the future dynamics of the population, with and without disease management, so as to evaluate the relative efficacy of various management strategies. Our first objective was to evaluate and compare the following strategies: (i) “do nothing”, without any management actions, which corresponds to the reference to which the other strategies will be compared to, (ii) serological testing of live individuals followed by removal (here, mainly euthanasia) of seropositive individuals (“test-and-remove”), and (iii) test-and-remove of live individuals combined to culling of others without testing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex

Lambert

Thébault

Rossi

et al. 2021

Vet Res

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The management of infectious diseases in wildlife reservoirs is challenging and faces several limitations. However, detailed knowledge of host–pathogen systems often reveal heterogeneity among the hosts’ contribution to transmission. Management strategies targeting specific classes of individuals and/or areas, having a particular role in transmission, could be more effective and more acceptable than population-wide interventions. In the wild population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex—a protected species) of the Bargy massif (French Alps), females transmit brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) infection in ~90% of cases, and most transmissions occur in the central spatial units (“core area”). Therefore, we expanded an individual-based model, developed in a previous study, to test whether strategies targeting females or the core area, or both, would be more effective. We simulated the relative efficacy of realistic strategies for the studied population, combining test-and-remove (euthanasia of captured animals with seropositive test results) and partial culling of unmarked animals. Targeting females or the core area was more effective than untargeted management options, and strategies targeting both were even more effective. Interestingly, the number of ibex euthanized and culled in targeted strategies were lower than in untargeted ones, thus decreasing the conservation costs while increasing the sanitary benefits. Although there was no silver bullet for the management of brucellosis in the studied population, targeted strategies offered a wide range of promising refinements to classical sanitary measures. We therefore encourage to look for heterogeneity in other wildlife diseases and to evaluate potential strategies for improving management in terms of efficacy but also acceptability.

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Brucellosis in the Arctic and Northern Regions

et al. 2022

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An individual-based model to assess the spatial and individual heterogeneity of Brucella melitensis transmission in Alpine ibex

Cited by 9 publications

References 52 publications

Estratégias para Alocação de Recursos de Controle Ótimo em Cenários Estocásticos

Estratégias para Alocação de Recursos de Controle Ótimo em Cenários Estocásticos

Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex

Brucellosis in the Arctic and Northern Regions

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