An Improved Water Budget for the El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, as Determined by the Water Supply Stress Index Model

Zhang, Liangxia; Sun, Ge; Cohen, Erika; McNulty, Steven G.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Krieger, Suzanne; Christian, Jason; Zhou, Decheng; Duan, Kai; Cepero-Perez, Keren

doi:10.1093/forsci/fxx016

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Approximate decadal water budgets have been compiled for the EYNF and adjacent downstream regions outside of the EYNF [ 29 – 30 , 48 ]. While all budgets have relied on the mass balance equation (i.e., Eq 1 ), different methods were used to estimate parameter values (i.e., P , RO , W , and ET ) with each successive analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, hydropower intakes within the EYNF boundary were excluded from our water budget in contrast to the previous two budgets ( Table 4 ), because the water used for hydropower generation is returned to the river channel. Nonetheless, all three of these studies indicate that water withdrawals represent a substantial alteration of the hydrologic budget and should be included in analyses [ 48 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, our water withdrawal estimates are based on data provided by the water utility company on the island and we limit our study to intakes within the EYNF boundaries. This budget also provides an alternative approach to simulation-based water budgets for the region [ 48 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Building a hydrologic foundation for tropical watershed management

et al. 2019

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Here we provide an empirical hydrologic foundation to inform water management decisions in the El Yunque National Forest (EYNF) in eastern Puerto Rico. Tropical watershed hydrology has proven difficult to quantify due to high rainfall variability, high evapotranspiration rates, variation in forest canopy interception and storage, and uncertain hydrologic inputs from fog condensation in cloud forests. We developed mass-balance and observation-based water budgets for nine local watersheds within the EYNF using a novel assemblage of remotely sensed rainfall data, gaged streamflow observations, and municipal water withdrawal rates. It is important to note that, while prior budgets considered large water withdrawals outside (downstream) of EYNF boundaries, our current budget is confined to within EYNF boundaries. Here, we also base our estimates of water withdrawal volume on operational data, in contrast to prior water budgets that estimated volume based on either the capacity of known water intakes or regulatory permit limits. This resulted in more conservative and realistic estimates of withdrawals from within the EYNF. Finally, we also discuss the ecological importance of considering the effects of water withdrawals not only at an average monthly scale, but also on the basis of exceedance probability to avoid over-abstraction for the protection of native migratory fishes and shrimps. This analysis highlights a number of unique challenges associated with developing hydrologic foundations for water management in tropical ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Building a hydrologic foundation for tropical watershed management

et al. 2019

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“…Several other hydrologic modelling studies have been conducted in PR for conditions similar to those considered in this study, including [28,[50][51][52][53][54][55][56]. The authors of [50] developed a real-time runoff model to evaluate runoff for the Loíza Basin in northeast PR.…”

Section: Ramos and Gilbesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors of [51] simulated streamflow for the Loíza Basin to characterize forecast uncertainties and statistical measures of model performance as part of a National Weather Service experiment in the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project [58]. The authors of [53] applied the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model [54] at the Luquillo National Rainforest in northeast PR. WaSSI estimates the monthly runoff volume and routed water exiting a watershed outlet.…”

Section: Ramos and Gilbesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Impacts on Critical Infrastructure in a Coastal Floodplain in Western Puerto Rico during Hurricane María

et al. 2021

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Flooding during extreme weather events damages critical infrastructure, property, and threatens lives. Hurricane María devastated Puerto Rico (PR) on 20 September 2017. Sixty-four deaths were directly attributable to the flooding. This paper describes the development of a hydrologic model using the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), capable of simulating flood depth and extent for the Añasco coastal flood plain in Western PR. The purpose of the study was to develop a numerical model to simulate flooding from extreme weather events and to evaluate the impacts on critical infrastructure and communities; Hurricane María is used as a case study. GSSHA was calibrated for Irma, a Category 3 hurricane, which struck the northeastern corner of the island on 7 September 2017, two weeks before Hurricane María. The upper Añasco watershed was calibrated using United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream discharge data. The model was validated using a storm of similar magnitude on 11–13 December 2007. Owing to the damage sustained by PR’s WSR-88D weather radar during Hurricane María, rainfall was estimated in this study using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Flooding in the coastal floodplain during Hurricane María was simulated using three methods: (1) Use of observed discharge hydrograph from the upper watershed as an inflow boundary condition for the coastal floodplain area, along with the WRF rainfall in the coastal flood plain; (2) Use of WRF rainfall to simulate runoff in the upper watershed and coastal flood plain; and (3) Similar to approach (2), except the use of bias-corrected WRF rainfall. Flooding results were compared with forty-two values of flood depth obtained during face-to-face interviews with residents of the affected communities. Impacts on critical infrastructure (water, electric, and public schools) were evaluated, assuming any structure exposed to 20 cm or more of flooding would sustain damage. Calibration equations were also used to improve flood depth estimates. Our model included the influence of storm surge, which we found to have a minimal effect on flood depths within the study area. Water infrastructure was more severely impacted by flooding than electrical infrastructure. From these findings, we conclude that the model developed in this study can be used with sufficient accuracy to identify infrastructure affected by future flooding events.

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Forest cover lessens the impact of drought on streamflow in Puerto Rico

Hall

Scholl

Gorokhovich

et al. 2022

Hydrological Processes

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Tropical regions are experiencing high rates of forest cover loss coupled with changes in the volume and timing of rainfall. These shifts can compromise streamflow and water provision, highlighting the need to identify how forest cover influences streamflow generation under variable rainfall conditions. Although rainfall is the key driver of streamflow regimes, the role of forests is less clear, particularly in tropical regions where forest loss is an ongoing risk. Forest cover loss alters evapotranspiration, rainfall infiltration and storage, and may increase stream ecosystem vulnerability to rainfall extremes. Puerto Rico, an island with spatially heterogenous forest cover and a marked geographic rainfall gradient, is projected to experience more frequent droughts and flash flooding. Using 15‐min streamflow data collected between 2005 and 2016 from 20 US Geological Survey stream gages and 3‐hourly Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation rainfall estimates, we utilized flow‐duration curves and linear mixed regression models to examine the role of forest cover in regulating the timing and volume of streamflow. The mixed model approach helps to account for differences in watershed characteristics. We determined the effects of rainfall and forest cover on low and peak flows in Puerto Rican streams, then evaluated changes in these relationships under dry and wet antecedent rainfall conditions. Watersheds with high forest cover had consistently greater low and peak streamflow than deforested ones under all rainfall conditions, although the effect was more marked during wet antecedent conditions, suggesting that peak flow is largely the result of saturation excess overland flow. During dry antecedent rainfall conditions, highly forested watersheds had higher streamflow than deforested ones, suggesting greater hillslope storage and release may also be at play. Our results demonstrate that forest cover generated a net increase in hillslope infiltration and storage and may lessen drought impacts on streamflow in Puerto Rico. Resilience to prolonged drought may be limited by finite water storage potential in this steep, mountainous setting, highlighting maintenance of forest cover as an important water management strategy to increase infiltration.

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An Improved Water Budget for the El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, as Determined by the Water Supply Stress Index Model

Cited by 10 publications

References 55 publications

Building a hydrologic foundation for tropical watershed management

Building a hydrologic foundation for tropical watershed management

Flood Impacts on Critical Infrastructure in a Coastal Floodplain in Western Puerto Rico during Hurricane María

Forest cover lessens the impact of drought on streamflow in Puerto Rico

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