An improved reconstruction of May–June precipitation using tree-ring data from western Turkey and its links to volcanic eruptions

Abstract

We developed a high quality reconstruction of May-June precipitation for the interior region of southwestern Turkey using regional tree-ring data calibrated with meteorological data from Burdur. In this study, three new climate sensitive black pine chronologies were built. In addition to new chronologies, four previously published black pine chronologies were used for the reconstruction. Two separate reconstructions were developed. The first reconstruction used all site chronologies over the common interval AD 1813-2004. The second reconstruction used four of the chronologies with a common interval AD 1692-2004. R² values of the reconstructions were 0.64 and 0.51 with RE values of 0.63 and 0.51, respectively. During the period AD 1692-1938, 41 dry and 48 wet events were found. Very dry years occurred in AD 1725, 1814, 1851, 1887, 1916, and 1923, while very wet years occurred in AD 1736, 1780, 1788, 1803, and 1892. The longest dry period was 16 years long between 1860 and 1875. We then explored relationships between the reconstructed rainfall patterns and major volcanic eruptions, and discovered that wetter than normal years occurred during or immediately after the years with the largest volcanic eruptions.

Spring temperature variability over Turkey since 1800 CE reconstructed from a broad network of tree-ring data

“…3). The high correlation was expected given that numerous studies also found similar results in Turkey (Akkemik, 2000a, b, 2003Hughes et al, 2001;D'Arrigo and Cullen, 2001;Touchan et al, 2003Touchan et al, , 2005aTouchan et al, , b, 2007Köse et al, 2011Köse et al, , 2012Köse et al, , 2013Martin-Benitto et al, 2016). The influence of temperature was not as strong as May-August precipitation on radial growth, although generally positive in early spring (March and April; Fig.…”

“…1). Fifteen chronologies were produced by previous investigations (Mutlu et al, 2011;Akkemik et al, 2008;Köse et al, 2005Köse et al, , 2011Köse et al, , 2013) that focused on reconstructing precipitation in the study area. In addition, we sampled eight new study sites and developed tree-ring time series for these areas (Table 1).…”

“…TIR in Akkemik et al, 2008. TAN in Köse et al, 2013. KIZ, ESK, TEF, BON, KEL, USA, FIR and TUR in Köse et al, 2011.…”

“…(Wick et al, 2003;Jones et al, 2006;Roberts et al, , 2012Kuzucuoglu et al, 2011;Woodbridge and Roberts, 2011;Ülgen et al, 2012;Dean et al, 2013) and tree rings, have been used to reconstruct long-term hydroclimate conditions over Turkey. Tree rings in particular have shown to provide useful information about the past climate of Turkey and were used intensively during the last decade to reconstruct precipitation in the Aegean (Griggs et al, 2007), Black Sea (Akkemik et al, , 2008Martin-Benitto et al, 2016), Mediterranean regions (Touchan et al, 2005a), as well as the Sivas (D'Arrigo and Cullen, 2001), southwestern (Touchan et al, 2003(Touchan et al, , 2007Köse et al, 2013), south-central and western Anatolian regions of Turkey. These studies used tree rings to reconstruct precipitation because available moisture is often found to be the most important limiting factor that influences radial growth of many tree species in Turkey.…”

Tree-ring chronologies of Pinus sylvestris from Burabai Region (Kazakhstan) and their response to climate change

“…Esper et al, 2007;Kausrud et al, 2010;Corona et al, 2010;Tegel et al, 2010;Büntgen et al, 2011;Büntgen et al, 2016;Gogou et al, 2016;Luterbacher et al, 2016;Xoplaki et al, 2016;Holmgren et al, 2016), in the eastern Mediterranean basin (e.g. Touchan et al, 2005;Touchan et al, 2007;Akkemik et al, 2008;Köse et al, 2011;Köse et al, 2013), in central Asia (e.g. Yuan & Li, 1999;Yuan et al, 2001;Esper et al, 2002;Yuan et al, 2003;Chen et al, 2009;Chen et al, 2010), in the southern Urals (Agafonov & Kukarskikh, 2008) and in Siberia (Rigling et al, 2001;Babushkina et al, 2015;Shah et al, 2015).…”