An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on the inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures

Takao, Shintaro; Yamano, Hiroya; Sugihara, Kaoru; Kumagai, Naoki H.; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

doi:10.1007/s00338-015-1347-2

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Moreover, lower diversity on mesophotic reefs suggests that depth refuges may not support as many species as currently observed in shallow environments 34 . Nevertheless, as isotherms penetrate deeper, these findings do broadly support the role of depth as a refuge for coral reefs, analogous to existing evidence of long-term poleward expansion of tropical reefs at 14 km year −1 in Japan 35,36 and eastern 37 and western Australia 38 .…”

Section: Consistency Of Realized Rates Of Vertical Velocity With Reposupporting

confidence: 81%

Ocean warming compresses the three-dimensional habitat of marine life

et al. 2019

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he effects of ocean warming on marine life are often summarized as a poleward displacement of their biogeographical ranges, tracking the direction and horizontal velocity of surface isotherms in the ocean 1-4. The assumption underlying this two-dimensional (2D) depiction of warming effects on marine life is that surface temperature adequately represents the thermal regimes experienced in the upper ocean. However, climate velocity is defined as the rate and direction isotherms shift through space 1,2,5 , including the vertical dimension. Indeed, the upper ocean environment is 3D, with temperature and light, among other key factors, regulating biological activity at depth 6. Consequently, species abundance and richness decline rapidly with depth 7. Ocean warming involves the penetration of excess heat in the water column, which can now be detected to characteristic depths of 700 m across the upper ocean 8 , thereby affecting horizontal thermal regimes but also those at depth. Indeed, marine species around the United States have shifted their distribution, tracking the velocity of isotherm displacement along both the meridional and depth axes 5. Similarly, North Sea demersal fish assemblages have shifted their depth distribution downward in response to warming 9. Hence, there is evidence that options available to marine organisms to respond to warming do not only involve local acclimation or poleward range shift, but also a shift in their 3D range, to occupy deeper, cooler environments that are closer to their optimal thermal range. The horizontal velocity of climate change and associated poleward displacement of marine life have already been examined globally 1,2,4. However, the vertical velocity of climate change with depth has not yet been reported at the global scale. Available evidence from regional studies shows that the vertical velocity of climate change can be pronounced, with thermal envelopes deepening by up to 60 m dec −1 around the United States 5. Deepening of vertical distributions by a few metres per year has been proposed as a mechanism that allows marine organisms to keep pace with climate

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Section: Consistency Of Realized Rates Of Vertical Velocity With Reposupporting

confidence: 81%

Ocean warming compresses the three-dimensional habitat of marine life

et al. 2019

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“…Initially, this body of research suggests this species may colonize new territories, while coping with climate change, as already suggested for other species, e.g., Acropora spp. (Takao et al., 2015). However, Vargas‐Angel et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More than half of the world's reefs are at risk of degradation, and the vast majority has already disappeared (Burke, Reytar, Spalding, & Perry, 2011; Castro & Huber, 1997; Hughes & Kerry, 2017). Due to global warming, tropical reef‐forming species are currently shifting towards higher latitudes, at an approximate rate up to 10 km per year (Takao et al., 2015). However, other factors besides temperature also limit the distribution of tropical shallow corals at high latitudes, such as lowered pH, which generates a decay of the carbonate ions necessary for the formation of coral skeletons, or low light intensities that may concurrently limit the photosynthesis of the symbionts (Couce, Ridgwell, & Hendy, 2012; Guan, Hohn, & Merico, 2015; Hoegh‐Guldberg, 2012; Kleypas, McManus, & Meñez, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental factors driving the distribution of the tropical coral Pavona varians: Predictions under a climate change scenario

et al. 2020

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Climate change causes shifts in the geographical distribution boundaries of many organisms. Modelling techniques predict the distribution of species by relating climatic and physical factors with species' presence records, including potential extinction areas and new potential areas of colonization, under predicted climatic scenarios. In this study, we initially explored which environmental variables most influenced the distribution of Pavona varians, a hermatypic coral from the equatorial Indian and the Pacific Ocean, which is categorized as ‘Least Concern’ by the UICN. The most influential variables were the minimum and maximum sea surface temperature, the diffuse water attenuation and the cloud cover. These variables were used to predict habitat suitability of P. varians under a current and a future (A1B IPPC) scenario using MaxEnt. Despite P. varians is an opportunistic species, with a well‐known resistance to environmental stress, the model predicted a massive decline in the suitability of its habitat in all areas by the year 2100. The information obtained by this study can be used to support the conservation decision making process to improve the preservation of the species.

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“…We used simulated historical (1986–2005) and projected (2026–2035) bias‐corrected (Yara et al., ) monthly mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the MIROC4h model (Sakamoto et al., ), currently the highest resolution model (0.281° × 0.188°) for ocean components developed for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Maynard et al., ). Developed by Japanese research institutions, the bias‐corrected SST product has been shown to accurately reproduce historically observed SSTs for the region (Takao et al., ). Given the type and scale of the analysis considered, the need for high‐resolution data outweighed the MIROC4h's limitations regarding timescale and climate scenarios.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Maynard et al, 2015). Developed by Japanese research institutions, the biascorrected SST product has been shown to accurately reproduce historically observed SSTs for the region (Takao et al, 2015). Given the type and scale of the analysis considered, the need for high-resolution data outweighed the MIROC4h's limitations regarding timescale and climate scenarios.…”

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confidence: 99%

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Molinos

Takao

Kumagai

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.

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An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on the inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures

Cited by 18 publications

References 46 publications

Ocean warming compresses the three-dimensional habitat of marine life

Ocean warming compresses the three-dimensional habitat of marine life

Environmental factors driving the distribution of the tropical coral Pavona varians: Predictions under a climate change scenario

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

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