An extended human reliability analysing under fuzzy logic environment for ship navigation

Uflaz, Esma; Çelik, Erkan; Aydın, Muhammet; Erdem, Pelin; Akyüz, Emre; Arslan, Özcan; Kurt, Rafet Emek; Turan, Osman

doi:10.1080/18366503.2022.2025687

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(75 reference statements)

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“…Expert opinions are particularly valuable in scenarios with high environmental uncertainties and challenges in collecting historical data [26,27]. These opinions are processed using fuzzy set theory to assess BEs using linguistic terms, thereby translating them into quantifiable fuzzy membership values essential for subsequent FTA [28].…”

Section: Calculation Of Polar Environment-induced Failure Probability...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operation in a Polar Environment Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

Noh,

Kang,

Park

2023

JMSE

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Autonomous underwater vehicles have long been used in marine explorations, and their application in recent polar expeditions is particularly noteworthy. However, the complexity and extreme conditions of the polar environment pose risks to the stable operation of autonomous underwater vehicles. This study adopted the methodology of fuzzy fault tree analysis to deeply analyze the operational risks of autonomous underwater vehicles in polar environments. While traditional fault tree analysis maps the causal relationships and probabilities between basic and intermediate events, fuzzy fault tree analysis models the uncertainty of data and determines the failure probability by integrating expert opinions. This study revealed that polar environment-induced failures play a more substantial role in autonomous underwater vehicle loss in polar regions than inherent system failures. The study identified ‘recovery failure’ and ‘poor communication’ as the major risk factors facing autonomous underwater vehicles in polar environments, exhibiting the highest failure probabilities. Specifically, among various polar environmental factors, ‘large ice concentration’, ‘ice thickness’, and ‘roughness of ice underside’ under ‘bad’ conditions were found to have a significant impact on the autonomous underwater vehicle’s failure probability. The fuzzy fault tree analysis method in this study successfully filled the gap created by the absence of historical data by effectively incorporating expert opinions, enabling a quantitative presentation of the impact of polar environments, which has been previously difficult to convey in qualitative terms.

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Section: Calculation Of Polar Environment-induced Failure Probability...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operation in a Polar Environment Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

Noh,

Kang,

Park

2023

JMSE

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“…32 Uflaz et al and IlkeSezer et al utilized HRA for the assessment of ship managers. 33,34 Zare et al investigated human reliability in the petrochemical industry. They employed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assign weights and rank the Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) and human errors.…”

Section: No No Nomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on Equation ( 22) through Equation ( 32), and by simplifying the expressions and identifying constant parameters, the HEP be represented as Equation (33). In this study, the primary objective is to minimize the HEP, which is equivalent to enhancing workforce reliability.…”

Section: 𝑇𝐶 𝑅mentioning

confidence: 99%

A new model to optimize the human reliability based on CREAM and group decision making

Bafandegan Emroozi,

Modares,

Roozkhosh

2023

Quality & Reliability Eng

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The Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) represents one of the second‐generation approaches to human reliability assessment, taking into account the influence of environmental conditions on human error probability (HEP). In the context of CREAM, the Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) influence error probabilities. Since not all CPCs have equal impacts, this study employs the Bayesian Best Worst Method (BWM), a novel approach in group decision‐making, to assign weights to these factors. Subsequently, two techniques based on basic CREAM are proposed. The current control mode is determined in the first technique according to the experts' opinions. Then the probability of human error is calculated based on the amount of control. It is possible to provide solutions for improving control mode, based on obtained results. Therefore, in this study, the second method has been used to make suggestions to enhance human reliability. For this purpose, in the second technique, an optimization problem is formulated to select the best applicable programs for managers to enhance human reliability. The proposed bi‐objective model tries to increase the reliability of human resources by reducing human error and costs. The proposed bi‐objective model seeks to bolster the reliability of human resources by concurrently minimizing HEP and associated costs. The efficiency of the presented methods is verified through a case study in the control room of the cement factory. The results of the first technique reveal an opportunistic control mode with a corresponding HEP of 0.0198. On the other hand, the outcomes of our proposed model underscore the greater impact of improving CPC levels in reducing the probability of human error. Ultimately, the practical programs derived from our mathematical model provide decision‐makers with valuable insights to reduce the probability of human error to a mere 0.000172 through the transition from opportunistic to strategic control.

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“…The results revealed that safety culture, fatigue, time limitation, and experience are deeply influential on crew performance (Erdem & Akyuz, 2021). Uflaz et al (2022) outlines the principles of fuzzy-based shipboard operation human reliability analysis (SOHRA), which is used to quantitatively assess human error during ship preparation procedures for navigation. The overall human error probability for preparing the ship for sailing is found to be 1.49E-01.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The overall human error probability for preparing the ship for sailing is found to be 1.49E-01. It is stated that the study will provide practical contributions to shore-based safety professionals, ship managers and masters of the ship (Uflaz et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Evaluation of the Effects of Human Factors on Potential Ship Accidents Under Pilotage

Demirci

Canımoğlu

Elçiçek

2022

Marine Science and Technology Bulletin

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In recent years, despite the technological advances, and increasing security measures in the maritime industry, it is observed that the effect of the human factor in the marine accidents has not changed. Most of the accidents occur in narrow canals, straits, rivers and entering port areas, resulting in environmental pollution, economical casualties and injury/loss of life. Pilotage is set compulsory in order to maintain safe passage at such confined waters. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of critical human factors on the potential ship accidents under pilotage operations. To explore the identified human factors, depth interviews and a questionnaire study were conducted with masters and pilots. The obtained data was analysed using DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to identify the most important and influential factors. The DEMATEL method is used to investigate interaction among human factors and to visualize them with help of causal-effect relation diagram. The results show that master experience, pilot experience and crew training are significant factors compared to other human risk factors. As a result of the findings of this research, it is also thought that improving the collaboration and communication between the master and the pilot will be effective in preventing the accidents.Moreover, understanding casual relations among human factors is important to prevent marine accidents. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was performed for testing reliability of the experts' evaluation and being clear certainty of the main results/findings in the DEMATEL method. It is found that expert considerations to the casual relationship between human factors are objective and sufficient. The findings of this article provide a critical overview of the research literature on the development of preventive measures for policy makers, shipping companies and port authorities.

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An extended human reliability analysing under fuzzy logic environment for ship navigation

Cited by 11 publications

References 64 publications

Risk Analysis of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operation in a Polar Environment Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

Risk Analysis of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operation in a Polar Environment Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

A new model to optimize the human reliability based on CREAM and group decision making

An Evaluation of the Effects of Human Factors on Potential Ship Accidents Under Pilotage

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