An Expanded Digital Daily Database for Climatic Resources Applications in the Midwestern United States

Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Andsager, Karen; Conner, Glen; Decker, Wayne L.; Hillaker, Harry J.; Knox, Pam; Nurnberger, Fred V.; Rogers, Jeffrey C.; Scheeringa, K. L.; Wendland, Wayne M.; Zandlo, James A.; Angel, James R.

doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<1357:aedddf>2.0.co;2

Cited by 35 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Methodologies used to calculate changes in other climate characteristics, such as heavy precipitation events, are discussed in section 4. (Kunkel et al 1998) over the same period.…”

Section: Combining Historical and Model Datamentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Historical data were obtained from the database maintained by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at the Illinois State Water Survey (Kunkel et al 1998(Kunkel et al , 1990. This data includes daily observations of maximum and minimum temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) and daily precipitation (in units of millimeters per day) from over 300 stations dating back over a century.…”

Section: Historical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Wuebbles

Hayhoe

2004

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

136

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Abstract. Environmental and societal factors such as air quality, water quality and availability, land use changes and expanding urbanization are already affecting human health and welfare, agriculture, and natural ecosystems in the Midwestern United States. Over this century, these existing stresses will likely be exacerbated by climate changes resulting from human activities. It is essential that policy decisions aimed at preserving the well-being of a region be informed by a good understanding of the region's climate, how climate might change, and the uncertainties inherent in future projections. Recent updates in climate modeling expertise and an expanded view of possible non-intervention emission scenarios have narrowed the range of change that can be expected over the Midwest throughout the next century in some ways, while broadening it in others. In contrast to previous studies, which generally consider a mid-range scenario for future emissions, this study presents the range of change that would result from low to high scenarios for climate change. In this way we account for uncertainties in anthropogenic forcing on climate change in the region and quantify the potential effects of human actions on future climate. This analysis also combines the latest climate model projections with historical records of observed climate over the past century, effectively placing potential changes in extreme event frequencies such as heavy rainfall events and temperature threshold exceedances within the context of observed variability over the past century. The purpose of this study is to provide an updated picture of the potential impacts of climate change on the Midwest to inform the impact assessment and policy development community. From the magnitude of the changes projected by this study, it is clear that these must be included in future policy decisions in order to ensure the successful adaptation and survival of existing human and natural systems in the Midwest.

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“…Methodologies used to calculate changes in other climate characteristics, such as heavy precipitation events, are discussed in section 4. (Kunkel et al 1998) over the same period.…”

Section: Combining Historical and Model Datamentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Historical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Wuebbles

Hayhoe

2004

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

136

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Figure 1 shows the locations of the 643 stations from this data set that passed the selection criteria applied herein and hence are subject to trend analysis. The data set employed has been subject to substantial homogenization efforts as described in Kunkel et al (1998Kunkel et al ( , 2005. The record length varies by station, but many have records beginning in the 1890s, and the majority ends in 2002.…”

Section: S C Pryor Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA?

Pryor

Howe

Kunkel

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

133

104

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Century-long precipitation records from stations in the contiguous USA indicate an increased frequency of rainy days over the past century and some evolution in the probability distributions of precipitation amount. Temporal trends in eight metrics of the precipitation climate are of similar magnitude and sign regardless of whether they are derived from bootstrapping of regression residuals or using the Kendall's tau statistic, though the bootstrap technique generally resolved a larger number of 'significant' trends. There is substantial variability in terms of the magnitude, significance and sign of the linear trends with specific metrics, and they are sensitive to recording bias of light precipitation events in the early part of the 20th century. The majority of stations that exhibit significant linear trends show evidence of increases in the intensity of events above the 95th percentile. The resolved trends tend to have a larger magnitude at the end of the century. Spatial variability as manifest in the spatial autocorrelation in the interannual variability and trends in extreme metrics is manifest at a range of scales, but in general the correlation between stations is significant only for separation of distances of a few tens of kilometres. The largest trends towards increased annual total precipitation, number of rainy days and intense precipitation (e.g. fraction of precipitation derived from events in excess of the 90th percentile value) are focussed on the Central Plains/northwestern Midwest.

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“…The official Chicago Midway historical daily T max and T min record for the period 1928-1980 was observed at the airport location, whereas official values after January 16, 1980, were based on observations taken at a NWS cooperative station located 3 miles (5 km) southwest of the airport (National Climatic Data Center [NCDC] TD-3200 and pre-1948 data digitized by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center; Kunkel et al 1998).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relating changes in agricultural practices to increasing dew points in extreme Chicago heat waves

Changnon¹,

Sandstrom²,

Schaffer³

2003

Clim. Res.

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The temporal distribution of surface atmospheric water vapor levels during shortduration extreme heat events at Chicago was assessed. Heat events were characterized by at least 3 consecutive days with a minimum temperature greater than 24°C (75°F) and a maximum temperature greater than 35°C (95°F). Thirteen such heat events were identified during the 75 yr record at Chicago Midway Airport located inside the city. Average dew points in events fluctuated considerably over time, but generally increased. Event average hourly dew-point values before the mid 1980s were generally below 21°C, rising to an average of 24°C during the mid 1990s. The temporal changes in dew-point values were related to 2 factors: (1) the existence of average to aboveaverage regional precipitation anomalies occurring in May and during the 20 d period prior to the heat event, and (2) changes in agricultural practices that have led to enhanced evapotranspiration rates in the Midwest.KEY WORDS: Short-duration heat waves · Surface dew-point temperature · Chicago · Climate variability · Evapotranspiration Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 24: [243][244][245][246][247][248][249][250][251][252][253][254] 2003 western heat-related fatalities were nearly one-fourth of those in 1995, a reduction partially due to improved municipal response efforts for heat waves.Record high dew points experienced during these 2 events of the 1990s raised questions about dew point levels experienced during earlier Chicago heat waves. A recent study (Sparks et al. 2002) identified that the frequency of hours with extreme dew points (> 24°C) at 2 northeastern Illinois first-order NWS stations, Rockford and Chicago O'Hare, had increased significantly during a 42 yr period .The primary goal of this study was to determine whether and why dew point levels had changed over time during short-duration Chicago heat waves. The Chicago Midway Airport weather records were examined for a 75 yr period . Any changes would have a significant impact on human health, the design and operation of air conditioning systems, as well as electrical demand in the Midwest (Cohen & Kosar 2000, Changnon 2002, Sparks et al. 2002.Both Kunkel et al. (1996) and Palecki et al. (2001) concluded that the extreme high dew points experienced during the 1995 and 1999 heat events occurred as a result of widespread regional rainfalls that preceded the heat waves. These rains were believed to have increased evapotranspiration rates from actively growing Midwestern corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) crops. Studies that examined conditions prior to the development of Midwest mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) postulated that the primary source for low-level moisture during weak-flow (anticyclonic) situations was evapotranspiration from crops, not moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico (Chang & Wetzel 1991, Bentley & Mote 1998, Changnon & Kunkel 1999. The possibility exists that changes in agricultural practices relating to corn a...

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An Expanded Digital Daily Database for Climatic Resources Applications in the Midwestern United States

Cited by 35 publications

References 5 publications

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA?

Relating changes in agricultural practices to increasing dew points in extreme Chicago heat waves

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