An Evidence Accumulation Model for Conflict Detection Performance in a Simulated Air Traffic Control Task

Abstract

Evidence accumulation models are a form of dynamic signal detection theory, allowing for the analysis of response times as well as response proportions, and can be used for simulating human performance on dynamic decision tasks.

Individual Differences in the Effect of Vertical Separation on Conflict Detection in Air Traffic Control

“…Consider two aircraft flying at the same altitude on converging courses. Determining whether these aircraft will violate lateral separation requires the integration of speed and distance information to predict the distance or time between the aircraft at the point of intersection of their trajectories (Law et al, 1993;Loft, Neal, & Humphreys, 2007;Neal & Kwantes, 2009). When aircraft are also changing altitude, the prediction of loss of separation in the future also requires the integration of the vertical speeds and altitudes of aircraft, and the subsequent computation of whether the difference between aircraft altitudes at the time of the position overlap on the lateral plane is below a minimum separation (Xu & Rantanen, 2003).…”

“…A second general approach has been to develop theoretical accounts that describe the process by which environmental cues (e.g., lateral and vertical separation) are used to make judgments of conflict risk (Loft et al, 2009;Neal & Kwantes, 2009). For example, the Neal and Kwantes (2009) random-walk model specified how individuals use the distance-to-velocity ratios of aircraft to estimate the difference in the lateral arrival times of pairs of aircraft at common intersection points.…”

“…For example, the Neal and Kwantes (2009) random-walk model specified how individuals use the distance-to-velocity ratios of aircraft to estimate the difference in the lateral arrival times of pairs of aircraft at common intersection points. This model closely predicted the conflict detection accuracy and response times of naive participants on a laboratory conflict detection task that involved aircraft simulation in the lateral plane.…”

“…Recent efforts have been directed toward formally describing the cognitive processes that underlie conflict detection (Loft, Bolland, Humphreys, & Neal, 2009;Neal & Kwantes, 2009;Stankovic, Raufaste, & Averty, 2008). This recent literature has several limitations, however.…”

“…First, there is considerable disagreement regarding the effect of vertical separation between aircraft on conflict judgment (e.g., Loft et al, 2009;Stankovic et al, 2008). Second, current theories and models rest on data from quite limited air traffic scenarios, often with aircraft only presented to participants at level flight (e.g., Neal & Kwantes, 2009) or on trajectories converging at limited angles (e.g., Neal & Kwantes, 2009;Stankovic et al, 2008). Third, studies testing theories and models of conflict detection have only reported the "average" responses from controllers without explicitly considering the role of individual differences between controllers (e.g., Loft et al, 2009).…”