An Event Data Analysis of Third-Party Mediation in the Middle East and Balkans

Abstract

Event data on the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Palestinian conflicts in the Levant (1979Levant ( -1999 and the Serbia-Croatia and Serbia-Bosnia conflicts in the Balkans (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999) are used to test two sets of processrelated hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation. Cross-correlation analysis is used to examine the time delay in the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Results show that these effects vary somewhat, depending on the conflict, and differ substantially, depending on who is conducting the mediation. Whether conflict reduction is most effectively achieved with sanctions or rewards is tested. Results show that a reduction in violence is generally associated with mediation combined with conflictual action directed toward both of the antagonists and combined with cooperative action directed to the weaker antagonist.This study uses statistical time-series analyses of political event data to examine the dynamics of third-party international mediation on the Israel-Lebanon and IsraelPalestinian conflicts in the Levant and the Serbia-Bosnia and Serbia-Croatia conflicts in the Balkans. Event data-nominal or ordinal codes that record the interactions between international actors as reported in the open press-provide a rich set of indicators about the results of mediation, the political circumstances of the mediation (e.g., prior military success or failure by the protagonists), and the various strategies employed by the mediating parties.Our analysis shifts from the generally structural focus of quantitative mediation literature to an emphasis on the dynamics of the mediation process. We first introduce results of cross-correlation analyses, which we undertake to identify the lag structure between mediation and levels of conflict-cooperation between antagonists. We then present a time series analysis that directly tests the "sticks-or-carrots" model: is media-

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