Signs of Trouble: Regional Organization Mediation and Civil War Agreement Durability

Gartner, Scott Sigmund

doi:10.1017/s0022381611000090

Cited by 57 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…For this reason, several publications that focus on the effects of mediation in intrastate conflicts have incorporated analyses of mediation onset based on structural factors as part of selection equations which control for the self-selection into mediation (cf. Gartner, 2011;Lounsbery & Cook, 2011;Melander, Möller & Ö berg, 2009). This study adds to this research and demonstrates that short-term conflict events are important predictors of mediation and should not be neglected.…”

Section: Previous Research On Mediationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, the political or economic concerns of neighboring states or regional organizations can be heightened by more extensive hostilities (cf. Gartner, 2011). Whether neighbors are affected by instability on their own through cross-border links such as ethnic groups, whether they cope with large refugee flows or whether they experience the economic fall-out from regional instability -all of these factors should increase the likelihood that a regional actor gets involved when the conflict escalates.…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Anticipating mediated talks

Ruhe

2015

Journal of Peace Research

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Research on mediation has shown that mediation can be an effective conflict management tool to contain intrastate conflicts, prevent escalation of low intensity conflicts, and foster de-escalation. But can ripe moments for conflict prevention effectively be anticipated? This article argues that the short-term conflict history provides a good predictor of the probability of mediation onset in low-intensity conflicts. It builds on an expected utility theory of mediation and states that conflict intensity is a primary indicator of whether a window of opportunity for mediation exists. Thereby, the article asserts that the direction of the effect is conditional on the respective probability of victory of each conflict party. The theory postulates that high conflict intensity only increases the probability of mediation onset when neither side is likely to prevail militarily. If one of the conflict parties has a high chance of a military success, then it will not regard conflict intensity as costly, since it can expect to impose these costs on its opponent. Under these circumstances the conflict parties will not be willing to engage in mediation. The article presents empirical support for this proposition. It uses temporally disaggregated data of low-intensity African conflicts from 1993 to 2004 and demonstrates that the theoretically motivated model predicts mediation onset with high accuracy. The results show that conflict dynamics are highly relevant covariates in predicting mediation. This selection process should be considered when the impact of mediation is evaluated.

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Section: Previous Research On Mediationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Anticipating mediated talks

Ruhe

2015

Journal of Peace Research

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“…Carter's efforts and the bases are examples of process effects (and a Directive Strategy). Process effects have a causal rela tionship to outcomes -they directly influence mediation efforts' success and failure (Gartner 2013).…”

Section: Selection and Process Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, identifying the dispute's type (hard or easy) helps to predict the likely outcome of any conflict resolution effort. Similarly, some mediators might be more or less effective and thus might be more or less likely to engage in especially intractable disputes (Gartner 2011;Mitchell & Hensel 2007).…”

Section: Selection and Process Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Influence of Directive Strategies on Settlement Duration

Gartner

2014

Int Negot

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A bstractAre Directive Strategies in international disputes the most effective mediation method for obtaining durable peace? A standard statistical analysis shows no effect of Directive Strategies on settlement durability. This result however, is misleading, failing to take selection and indirect effects into account. In this article, I identify when selection and process effects reinforce or oppose each other. Directive Strategies have opposing neg ative selection and positive process effects, which can distort inferences about their influence. Strategies' direct and indirect effects are also examined. Directive Strategies are more likely to lead to Full Settlements -the most comprehensive form of agree ment, which improve the settlement durability (an indirect effect). However, Directive Strategies are used in more intractable disputes that result in fragile settlements (a direct effect). A statistical analysis of international disputes that takes these conflicting dynamics into account demonstrates the efficacy of Directive Mediation Strategies in producing durable agreements.

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Mediation in International Conflicts

Beardsley

Danneman

2015

Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences

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Scholars of international conflict mediation have made strides in the last two decades in understanding when mediation occurs and when it is successful. The rationalist framework has allowed theorists to sharpen and expand on early insights, and research using quantitative methods continues to be an important part of the field. Gaining a sense of when disputants might use mediation disingenuously and expanding the scope and comparability of data sets on mediation will push both the study and practice of mediation onto useful new ground.

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Signs of Trouble: Regional Organization Mediation and Civil War Agreement Durability

Cited by 57 publications

References 49 publications

Anticipating mediated talks

Anticipating mediated talks

The Influence of Directive Strategies on Settlement Duration

Mediation in International Conflicts

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