An Evaluation of the Reproducibility of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the CMIP3 Multi-Models

Sato, Naoki; Takahashi, Chiharu; Seiki, Ayako; Yoneyama, Kunio; Shirooka, Ryuichi; Takayabu, Yukari N.

doi:10.2151/jmsj.87.791

Cited by 17 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Overall, they adequately reproduce the MJO convective signals compared with observation. Four of the BEST models correspond to those with high skill scores with regard to the MJO signal in the tropics (Sato et al 2009). Analyses of the wave activity flux and the RWS indicate that the BEST models pronouncedly reproduce the upperlevel extratropical wave train.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…In most of the general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the MJO signal in the convective activity is not properly simulated (e.g., Lin et al 2006;Sato et al 2009). Most climate models produce overly weak MJO variance and lack highly coherent eastward propagation of the MJO, compared to observations (Lin et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most climate models produce overly weak MJO variance and lack highly coherent eastward propagation of the MJO, compared to observations (Lin et al 2006). Models with moisture convergence-type convection schemes simulate the MJO signal well in precipitation (Lin et al 2006;Sato et al 2009). Several previous studies have evaluated the model status of simulation for MJO-extratropical teleconnection by IPCC AR4 GCMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Extratropical Teleconnection over East Asia during the Northern Winter in IPCC AR4 Climate Models

Takahashi

Yoneyama

Sato

et al. 2012

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The reproducibility of the extratropical teleconnection in East Asia associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the boreal winter is evaluated in the 20 th century experiment (20C3M) outputs from 16 global climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). It is revealed that five of the models (BEST models) realistically simulate the MJOextratropical convection teleconnection. These models successfully represent the MJO convective signals better than the other models. Through analysis of the wave activity flux and Rossby wave source (RWS), the upper-level extratropical wave train induced by MJO convection is demonstrated to propagate northeastward along the Asian jet with its reinforcement, which eventually a¤ects the convective variability in East Asia. The BEST models pronouncedly reproduce the extratropical wave train and RWS. However, the other models produce unrealisCorresponding author: Chiharu Takahashi, Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for MarineEarth Science and Technology, 2-15 Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka, Kanagawa 237-0061, Japan. E-mail: takachi@jamstec.go.jp 6 2012, Meteorological Society of Japan tic or no extratropical wave trains due to unrealistically produced RWSs, although all models realistically exhibit the climatological absolute vorticity over the Asian jet as a waveguide. Furthermore, only the BEST models reproduce the low-level moisture transport with southerlies from the tropics into East Asia, which are associated with realistically reproduced anticyclonic circulation over the North Pacific, that is largely formed as a Rossbywave response to the cooling anomaly with meaningful suppressed convection over tropical western and central Pacific. In summary, correctly simulating the intensity of the MJO convection and its eastward propagation into the Pacific is necessary in order to predict the wintertime climate variability over East Asia.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Extratropical Teleconnection over East Asia during the Northern Winter in IPCC AR4 Climate Models

Takahashi

Yoneyama

Sato

et al. 2012

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…In many general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the horizontal pattern (Sato et al 2009) and variance (e.g., Lin et al 2006) of MJO signal in the convective activity are not completely simulated. Most GCMs exhibit coherent eastward propagation of the MJO convection over the IO, but few represent its eastward extension into the western/central Pacific (e.g., Sperber and Annamalai 2008;Takahashi et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies suggested that simulating realistic basic states such as sea-surface temperature (SST) or moisture is important for good MJO simulation in GCMs (e.g., Sperber and Annamalai 2008). Sato et al (2009) showed that unrealistic MJO precipitation signal simulated in IPCC AR4 GCMs appears to arise from the distribution of SST bias.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Future Change of MJO and its Extratropical Teleconnection in East Asia during the Northern Winter Simulated in IPCC AR4 Models

Takahashi

Sato

Seiki

et al. 2011

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The future changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its extratropical teleconnection in East Asia during the boreal winter are examined by analyzing 12 climate models with good simulation skills of the MJO convective signal in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The MJO convection increases over the western to central Indian Ocean (IO) under the warming climate in seven models (MJO-plus models). However, it decreases in the other five models (MJOminus models). The wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) exhibits more El Niño-like warming in the MJO-plus models. Furthermore, the predicted increase of the MJO amplitude over the IO significantly correlates with that of the amplitude in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In East Asia, the convective activity increases (decreases) in the MJO-plus (MJO-minus) models associated with the enhancement (weakening) of the MJO over the western to central IO. The MJO-plus models predict the intensified extratropical circulations as a wave train along the subtropical jet, and increased low-level warm-moist air transport into East Asia related to the intensified Kelvin-Rossby response. Such changes are not detected in the MJO-minus models. It is suggested that proper simulations of the change in the MJO and ENSO are required in order to predict the wintertime climate change in East Asia.

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The madden-julian oscillation as simulated by the mpi earth system model: Over the last and into the next millennium

Schubert

Stevens

Crueger

2013

J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst.

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The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), as represented by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), is analyzed for the first time over time periods ranging from decades to more than a millennium. Particular attention is paid to the behavior of the MJO index as calculated from the leading pair of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) derived from a multivariate EOF analysis. The analysis of 1000 year simulations with the MPI-ESM and its predecessor reveals significant interannual (2-6 years) to interdecadal (10-20 years) internal variability of the MJO but relatively little evidence of significant variability at longer timescales in unforced runs. A 1200 year experiment forced by the best estimates of solar variability, volcanism, and changing atmospheric composition indicates that the MJO simulated in the twentieth century is very similar to the MJO simulated since AD 800. The analysis of sensitivity experiments shows the influence of different external forcings: solar variability may contribute to MJO variability on 11 and 22 year periods, but this is difficult to separate from internal variability; and there is a hint of enhanced decadal variability associated with volcanic forcing. Land use change and changes associated with anthropogenic forcing over the twentieth century have no detectable effect on the simulated MJO. An increase of the CO 2 concentrations by 1% per year starting in AD 1850 leads to an increase in the MJO strength in the twenty-first century, as does the warming associated with an abrupt quadrupling of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration, suggesting that the MJO may intensify with warming.

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An Evaluation of the Reproducibility of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the CMIP3 Multi-Models

Cited by 17 publications

References 35 publications

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Extratropical Teleconnection over East Asia during the Northern Winter in IPCC AR4 Climate Models

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Extratropical Teleconnection over East Asia during the Northern Winter in IPCC AR4 Climate Models

Projected Future Change of MJO and its Extratropical Teleconnection in East Asia during the Northern Winter Simulated in IPCC AR4 Models

The madden-julian oscillation as simulated by the mpi earth system model: Over the last and into the next millennium

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