No abstract

[1] The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere. This study examines the evolution of the hydrologic regime from before the onset of the MJO (pre-onset period) to the MJO onset period, using deuterated water vapor (HDO) measurements from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and from ground-based stations. Ground-based observations reveal a clear transition between high HDO/H 2 O isotope ratios during the pre-onset period to a period of repeated abrupt decreases in the HDO/H 2 O isotope ratio associated with intense convection. Each observed minimum in the HDO/H 2 O ratio corresponded to a maximum in stratiform rainfall fraction, which was derived independently from radar precipitation coverage area. The ground-based observations are consistent with the satellite observations of the HDO/H 2 O ratio. In order to attribute the mechanisms that bring about the isotopic changes within the MJO convection, an isotope-enabled general circulation model (GCM) constrained by observed meteorological fields was used to simulate this MJO period. The GCM reproduced many of the observed isotopic features that accompanied the onset of an MJO. After the development of deep convection, large-scale stratiform cloud cover appears, and isotope ratios respond, as a consequence of diffusive exchange between stratiform raindrops and the surrounding vapor. In this diffusive exchange process, heavy isotopes tend to become enriched in precipitation and depleted in the surrounding vapor, and thus successive stratiform rainfall results in decreasing isotope values in the middle and lower troposphere. On the basis of these characteristics, isotope tracers can be used to partition stratiform and convective rainfall from observed isotope data and to validate the simulated proportions of convective/stratiform rainfall.

The upper-air sounding network for Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) has provided an unprecedented set of observations for studying the MJO over the Indian Ocean, where coupling of this oscillation with deep convection first occurs. With 72 rawinsonde sites and dropsonde data from 13 aircraft missions, the sounding network covers the tropics from eastern Africa to the western Pacific. In total nearly 26 000 soundings were collected from this network during the experiment's 6-month extended observing period (from October 2011 to March 2012). Slightly more than half of the soundings, collected from 33 sites, are at high vertical resolution. Rigorous post-field phase processing of the sonde data included several levels of quality checks and a variety of corrections that address a number of issues (e.g., daytime dry bias, baseline surface data errors, ship deck heating effects, and artificial dry spikes in slow-ascent soundings).Because of the importance of an accurate description of the moisture field in meeting the scientific goals of the experiment, particular attention is given to humidity correction and its validation. The humidity corrections, though small relative to some previous field campaigns, produced high-fidelity moisture analyses in which sonde precipitable water compared well with independent estimates. An assessment of operational model moisture analyses using corrected sonde data shows an overall good agreement with the exception at upper levels, where model moisture and clouds are more abundant than the sonde data would indicate.

Global cloud/cloud system-resolving models are perceived to perform well in the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a huge eastward -propagating atmospheric pulse that dominates intraseasonal variation of the tropics and affects the entire globe. However, owing to model complexity, detailed analysis is limited by computational power. Here we carry out a simulation series using a recently developed supercomputer, which enables the statistical evaluation of the MJO prediction skill of a costly new-generation model in a manner similar to operational forecast models. We estimate the current MJO predictability of the model as 27 days by conducting simulations including all winter MJO cases identified during 2003–2012. The simulated precipitation patterns associated with different MJO phases compare well with observations. An MJO case captured in a recent intensive observation is also well reproduced. Our results reveal that the global cloud-resolving approach is effective in understanding the MJO and in providing month-long tropical forecasts.

This study analyzes data obtained by intensive observation during a pilot field campaign of the Years of the Maritime Continent Project (Pre-YMC) to investigate the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the western coastal area of Sumatra Island. The diurnal cycle during the campaign period (November–December 2015) is found to have a number of similarities with statistical behavior of the diurnal cycle as revealed by previous studies, such as afternoon precipitation over land, nighttime offshore migration of the precipitation zone, and dependency on Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phase. Composite analyses of radiosonde soundings from the Research Vessel (R/V) Mirai, deployed about 50 km off the coast, demonstrate that the lower free troposphere starts cooling in late afternoon (a couple of hours earlier than the cooling in the boundary layer), making the lower troposphere more unstable just before precipitation starts to increase. As the nighttime offshore precipitation tends to be more vigorous on days when the cooling in the lower free troposphere is larger, it is possible that the destabilization due to the cooling contributes to the offshore migration of the precipitation zone via enhancement of convective activity. Comparison of potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio tendencies suggests that this cooling is substantially due to vertical advection by an ascent motion, which is possibly a component of shallow gravity waves. These results support the idea that gravity waves emanating from convective systems over land play a significant role in the offshore migration of the precipitation zone.

Turbulent and radiative exchanges of heat between the ocean and atmosphere (hereafter heat fluxes), ocean surface wind stress, and state variables used to estimate them, are Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) and Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) influencing weather and climate. This paper describes an observational strategy for producing 3-hourly, 25-km (and an aspirational goal of hourly at 10-km) heat flux and wind stress fields over the global, ice-free ocean with breakthrough 1-day random uncertainty of 15 W m −2 and a bias of less than 5 W m −2. At present this accuracy target is met only for OceanSITES reference station moorings and research vessels (RVs) that follow best practices. To meet these targets globally, in the next decade, satellite-based observations must be optimized for boundary layer measurements of air temperature, humidity, sea surface temperature, and ocean wind stress. In order to tune and validate these satellite measurements, a complementary global in situ flux array, built around an expanded OceanSITES network of time series reference station moorings, is also needed. The array would include 500-1000 measurement platforms, including autonomous surface vehicles, moored and drifting buoys, RVs, the existing OceanSITES network of 22 flux sites, and new OceanSITES expanded in 19 key regions. This array would be globally distributed, with 1-3 measurement platforms in each nominal 10 • by 10 • box. These improved moisture and temperature profiles and surface data, if assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, would lead to better representation of cloud formation processes, improving state variables and surface radiative and turbulent fluxes from these models. The in situ flux array provides globally distributed measurements and metrics for satellite algorithm development,

A polarization lidar was continuously operated aboard the research vessel Mirai in the tropical western Pacific over three northern winters: at 2.0°N, 138.0°E during November and December 2001; at 2.0°N, 138.5°E during November and December 2002; and at 7.5°N, 134.0°E during December 2004 and January 2005. Intensive radiosonde soundings were made from the vessel at 3‐h intervals during all three campaigns. The mechanisms that underlie the observed variations in cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are discussed from the viewpoint of large‐scale dynamics and transport. During the 2001 campaign, the tropopause region was cold, but the TTL was often clear, with only some subvisual cirrus. Potential vorticity data and trajectories show that the TTL during this period was strongly affected by dry air transport from the northern midlatitude lower stratosphere. During the 2002 campaign, a packet of large‐amplitude equatorial Kelvin waves was the primary control on the generation and disappearance of cirrus in the TTL. During the 2004–2005 campaign, a cold phase of large‐scale waves resulted in cirrus generation in the TTL in late December of 2004, similar to that observed during the 2002 campaign. Outflow from the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) caused optically thick cirrus in the TTL, particularly during early January 2005, when we also observed regular diurnal variations in cirrus development within the TTL, that is, apparent sedimentation during the nighttime. We investigated two possible controlling processes, namely, horizontal advection together with diurnal variations in convective activity within the SPCZ and diurnal variations in local temperature due to tides and gravity waves. In the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial Kelvin waves are the important dynamical process that controls cirrus variations in the TTL. Dry‐air horizontal transport from the midlatitude lower stratosphere and wet‐air vertical transport near the tropical convergence regions should also be considered in fully explaining the cirrus observations in the TTL.

Recent studies using data from the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere program's Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) have shown that synoptic-scale areas of extremely dry air can occur in the troposphere over the equatorial western Pacific. These layers of extremely dry air modify convective activity and the vertical profile of radiation in clear air. At the present time there is some disagreement as to the dynamic mechanism responsible for these events and a number of their characteristics are relatively unknown. In this study, the origin and characteristics of the dry air events were investigated through analysis of TOGA COARE rawinsonde data and examination of global analyses from two different forecast centers. These drying events were found to be very common and evidence was presented that their intensity was underestimated in the global analyses. These dry events were shown to most often originate in the Northern (winter) Hemisphere as troughs associated with baroclinic waves intensified and expanded equatorward, leading to a process analogous to Rossby wave breaking. In these cases, the dry air at the edge of the westerlies at upper levels was incorporated into the equatorward extension of thin NE-SW tropospheric troughs, where it subsided and was subsequently advected equatorward. If sufficient subsidence took place, the dry air continued flowing equatorward on the eastern edge of well-defined anticyclones in the lower troposphere. The dry air in one case originated in a Southern (summer) Hemisphere trough that was associated with midlatitude baroclinic waves that propagated equatorward and developed into a series of distinct disturbances along a subtropical jet. In both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere events, the subsiding dry air in the midtroposphere was injected into the fringes of the Tropics, where it was able to reach equatorial regions if it interacted with favorable meridional flow in the Tropics. Past studies have proposed that these intrusions of dry air could induce droughts in the Tropics through decreasing deep convective activity. The implication of this study is that these droughts are actually induced by midlatitude processes.