An Evaluation of the REMI Model for the South Coast Air Quality Management District

Cassing, Shirley; Giarratani, Frank

doi:10.1068/a241549

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Several scholars have compared the model operations and results to those obtained with models that include only one modeling aspect, such as just an input-output approach (see, e.g., Crihfield & Campbell, 1991;Rickman & Schwer, 1993, 1995a, 1995b for a comparison and analysis of multipliers; and Rey, 1997Rey, , 1998, for an estimation of error and discussion of the usefulness of econometric and input-output hybrid models). Others have evaluated the predictive accuracy (Cassing & Giarratani, 1992;Molotch & Woolley, 1994;Treyz et al, 1991) and explanatory power of the model (see , for a discussion of this literature). These studies all confirm that the REMI model is robust and highly accurate, especially over short-to medium-term timeframes.…”

Section: Appendix B: Remi Model Supporting Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Macroeconomic Effects of 2017 Through 2025 Federal Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards

Carley

Zirogiannis

Duncan

et al. 2019

J Policy Anal Manage

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In the absence of a national carbon price, the federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards and the related greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) standards are the primary mechanisms through which the U.S. reduces transportation GHG emissions. In 2012, these standards were set to rise for light‐duty vehicles between 2017 and 2025, eventually achieving a target of 54.5 miles per gallon in 2025. Since 2012, conditions have changed: forecasts of future gasoline prices have dropped dramatically, consumers have demanded larger vehicles, and the cost of compliance appears to be larger than previously thought. In this article, we analyze the possible macroeconomic effects of the standards with both 2012 inputs and updated inputs to reflect these new market developments. The results reveal that the short‐term effects of the federal standards will be negative, but the long‐term effects will be positive, using both 2012 and updated inputs. The transition from annual negative employment impacts to positive impacts occurs between 2023 and 2026, depending on which set of assumptions are used. Possible revisions to the standards that freeze them at 2020 levels or decrease their stringency reduce short‐term negative impacts but also reduce long‐term positive impacts. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications as they relate to the current energy and climate policy conditions.

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Section: Appendix B: Remi Model Supporting Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Macroeconomic Effects of 2017 Through 2025 Federal Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards

Carley

Zirogiannis

Duncan

et al. 2019

J Policy Anal Manage

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Statistical techniques are extensively used in the equation parameters and response estimations in the REMI model. There are a number of studies in the literature designed to validate the predictive accuracy of the REMI Model (Treyz et al 1991;Cassing and Giarratani 1992). In these studies, post-sample period forecasts are computed.…”

Section: Remi Model Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…REMI has also been tested for its consistency across regions for equivalent simulations (Cassing and Giarratani 1992). There are also a number of studies in the literature designed to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the REMI model by testing the prediction errors in post-sample period forecasting (Treyz et al 1991;Cassing and Giarratani 1992). Our analysis moves beyond error analysis to validate, through multivariate econometric analysis, both the explanatory power of the REMI model and consistency of its output with regard to policy variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional macroeconomic assessment of the Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan

Rose¹,

Wei²,

Dormady³

2011

Regional Science Policy & Practice

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The Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan (CAP) is the culmination of a formal stakeholder process to specify policies and measures to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The implementation of technical and behavioural mitigation options will require changes in the way businesses and government operate, and the way households conduct their daily lives. An important question is whether the sum of all of these microeconomic changes and their interactions will be a stimulus to or a drain on the economy as whole. We apply the Regional Economic Models, Inc. Policy Insight Plus (REMI PI+) model in an innovative manner to analyse the impacts of major GHG mitigation options at the macroeconomic level in Pennsylvania for the policy horizon of 2009–2020. Our results indicate that the net impacts on the state's economy will be significantly positive. We also develop a reduced form econometric model based on the results and subject it to rigorous statistical testing. This is the first time an independent validation of this kind has been applied to the REMI Model in order to verify its simulation results. Resumen. El Plan de Acción sobre el Clima, en Pensilvania, es la culminación de un proceso formal de partes interesadas para definir políticas y medidas para mitigar las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI). La implementación de opciones de mitigación técnicas y de comportamiento requerirán cambios en el modo de operar de las empresas y el gobierno, y en que los hogares actúan de manera cotidiana. Una pregunta importante es si la suma de todos estos cambios microeconómicos y sus interacciones serán un estímulo o una carga para la economía en su conjunto. Aplicamos el modelo REMI Policy Insight Plus (Regional Economic Models, Inc. PI+) de manera innovadora para analizar los impactos de las principales opciones de mitigación de GEI a nivel macroeconómico en Pensilvania para el horizonte de políticas 2009‐2020. Nuestros resultados indican que los impactos netos en la economía de este estado serán significativamente positivos. Desarrollamos asimismo un modelo econométrico de formato reducido basado en los resultados y lo sometimos a pruebas estadísticas rigurosas. Ésta es la primera vez que se realiza una validación independiente de este tipo al Modelo REMI para verificar los resultados de su simulación.

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“…omy may not provide necessary forecasting accuracy (Cassing and Giarratani, 1986). On the other hand, forecasting models may not adequately capture the cyclicality of economic activities.…”

Section: Measuring Benefits On a Rule-by-rule Basis Is Very Costly Simentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of these similarities, the model uses statistical techniques so as to estimate economic responses based on data from throughout the United States. The second step of the modeling process is region specific and involves calibrating the model based on region-specific historical data (Cassing and Giarratani, 1990).…”

Section: The Remi Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Impacts of Air Quality Regulation: Applying an Economic Model

Lieu¹

1991

Contemporary Economic Policy

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The South Coast Air Quality Management District promulgated an Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) in 1989 so as to attain federal air quality standards for the South Coast Air Basin by the year 2007. Because the AQMP affects all walks of life, its economic impact has become the focal point of debates. This paper examines not only the traditional approach to evaluating the direct cost of a public policy change on the regulated community, but also a systematic approach to assessing direct and indirect impacts of such policy change. This latter approach will enhance the decisionmaking process by allowing one to compare the impacts of various projects in the same context. Copyright 1991 Western Economic Association International.

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An Evaluation of the REMI Model for the South Coast Air Quality Management District

Cited by 15 publications

References 4 publications

The Macroeconomic Effects of 2017 Through 2025 Federal Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards

The Macroeconomic Effects of 2017 Through 2025 Federal Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards

Regional macroeconomic assessment of the Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan

Regional Impacts of Air Quality Regulation: Applying an Economic Model

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