An Evaluation of Historical Trends in New Mexico Beef Cattle Production in Relation to Climate and Energy

Abstract

In support of Food-Energy-Water Systems (FEWS) analysis to enhance its sustainability for New Mexico (NM), this study evaluated observed trends in beef cattle population in response to environmental and economic changes. The specific goal was to provide an improved understanding of the behavior of NM’s beef cattle production systems relative to precipitation, temperature, rangeland conditions, production of hay and crude oil, and prices of hay and crude oil. Historical data of all variables were available for the 1973–2017 period. The analysis was conducted using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. The results indicated declining trends in beef cattle population and prices. The most important predictors of beef cattle population variation were hay production, mean annual hay prices, and mean annual temperature, whereas mean annual temperature, cattle feed sold, and crude oil production were the most important predictors for calf population that weigh under 500 lb. Prices of beef cattle showed a strong positive relationship with crude oil production, mean annual hay prices, rangeland conditions, and mean annual precipitation. However, mean annual temperature had a negative relationship with mean annual beef prices. Variation in mean annual calf prices was explained by hay production, mean annual temperature, and crude oil production. This analysis suggested that NM’s beef cattle production systems were affected mainly and directly by mean annual temperature and crude oil production, and to a lesser extent by other factors studied in this research.

Historical Trends in New Mexico Forage Crop Production in Relation to Climate, Energy, and Rangelands

“…Historical datasets since the 1950's on NM's climatic, energy, socioeconomics, and food production were obtained and used to evaluate the observed behavior of forage crops production. The variables considered in the study were selected to reflect climate variability based on precipitation and temperature; energy as represented by crude oil production; socioeconomics as represented by the prices of crude oil and forage crops (i.e., hay, grain sorghum, and corn) [10,32,34]; and food production as represented by forage crop production, beef cattle production [11,27], and rangelands forage availability as represented by range conditions. Except for range conditions, the data for all the selected variables were available for the period between 1958 and 2017.…”

“…Ranchers' dependency (i.e., demand) on hay may also increase during drought periods [36] to retain their cattle and avoid the liquidation operations [37,38]. However, this increased demand for hay may not be adequately addressed also due to drought [11,27]. Another possible explanation for the decline in hay production can partially be attributed to a potential time lag in beef cattle numbers to adjust to drought conditions [11,27].…”

“…However, this increased demand for hay may not be adequately addressed also due to drought [11,27]. Another possible explanation for the decline in hay production can partially be attributed to a potential time lag in beef cattle numbers to adjust to drought conditions [11,27]. In other words, an increased beef cattle number during a drought year can be followed by a decline in the beef cattle number in the following year.…”

“…Mean annual precipitation (mm) 1 10.42 2.38 × 10 −3 0.01 0.83 Mean annual temperature ( • C) 1 12.27 −6.69 × 10 −2 0.76 Crude oil production (barrel) 1 11.67 −2.011 × 10 −9 <0.001 0.84 Mean annual crude oil prices ($/barrel) 1 [27] with mean annual precipitation (mm) [54] and crude oil production (barrel) [58] in New Mexico between 1958 and 2017.…”

“…The sustainability and hence the economic contribution of forage crops and beef cattle production systems in the state have shown a variable behavior in response to some environmental changes such as drought, limited water supply, and rising temperature. These environmental changes collectively can negatively impact New Mexican's livelihood, and thus there is a need to further evaluate their effects [1,11,22,25,27].…”