An estimate of the effects of climate change on the rainfall of Mediterranean Spain by the late twenty first century

Sumner, Graham; Romero, R.; Homar, V.; Ramis, C.; Alonso, Sergio; Zorita, Eduardo

doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0307-7

Cited by 87 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…However, if ETP increases in Mediterranean ecosystems, water stress could dominate over the CO 2 -induced WUE increase (if any), resulting in important changes in latitudinal and altitudinal shift of species distribution (Benito Garzón et al, 2008). Species growing at low elevations in the Mediterranean, like Q. ilex in this study, are likely to be most susceptible to suffering the negative effects of climate change as a result of the combination of predicted reduced precipitation (Sumner et al, 2003) and increasing temperatures (IPCC, 2007).…”

Section: Population Response To Climatementioning

confidence: 84%

“…In Mediterranean ecosystems, precipitation is the most limiting factor at low and mid-elevation sites; and the climatic signal in tree rings is likely to differ from that at high elevation sites (more temperature-limited). Thus, understanding how species from different elevation stands respond to climate is essential to infer future ecological behaviours and shifts in species distributions, and especially in drought-limited ecosystems with a future scenario of rising temperatures and decreasing precipitations (IPCC, 2007;Sumner et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate-growth variability in Quercus ilex L. west Iberian open woodlands of different stand density

Gea‐Izquierdo¹,

Martín-Benito²,

Cherubini

et al. 2009

Ann. For. Sci.

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Abstract• We present the longest tree-ring chronology (141 y) of Quercus ilex L. (holm oak), and discuss the species climate-growth relationships and the influence of stand density on tree sensitivity to climate.• Similarly to Quercus suber L., the most influential climatic variables upon holm oak growth were late spring and early summer precipitation, which enhanced growth, and high temperatures in the previous August and current July, which negatively affected growth.• High density stands responded to similar climatic factors as low density stands, but their response was generally weaker. Holm oak sensitivity to climate has increased in recent decades, which might be related to increasing temperatures in the region. Sensitivity was higher in low density stands. Additionally, the effect of summer stress on growth seems to have increased during the same period, similarly to other species in the Iberian Peninsula, suggesting that trees are more vulnerable to climatic changes.• Stand density could buffer the response to climate by smoothing climatic extremes. Nevertheless, the effect of competition might reverse this positive effect at the individual tree level. Precautions should be taken before providing management guidelines regarding the effect of climate change and stand density on holm oak. Mots-clés :chêne vert / dendroécologie / changement climatique / réchauffement / dehesas / cernes des arbres Résumé -Variabilité des relations climat-croissance chez Quercus ilex L. dans des peuplements forestiers ouverts de différentes densités dans l'ouest de la péninsule Ibérique.• Nous présentons la plus longue chronologie de cernes (141 ans) de Quercus ilex L. (chêne vert) comme et nous discutons les relations climat-croissance chez cette espèce et l'influence de la densité du peuplement sur la sensibilité des arbres au climat.• De façon similaire à Quercus suber L., les variables climatiques les plus influentes sur la croissance du chêne vert ont été les précipitations de la fin du printemps et du début de l'été, qui ont augmenté la croissance, et les températures élevées d'août de l'année précédente et du mois de juillet de l'année, qui ont affecté négativement la croissance.• Les peuplements de densité élevé ont répondu à des facteurs climatiques similaires que les peuplements de faible densité mais leur réponse a été généralement plus faible. La sensibilité du chêne vert au climat a augmentée au cours des dernières décennies, elle pourrait être liée à l'augmentation des températures dans la région. Cette sensibilité est plus élevée dans les peuplements de faible densité. En outre, le effet du stress estival sur la croissance semble avoir augmenté au cours de la même pé-riode, de la même façon que pour d'autres espèces dans la péninsule Ibérique, ce qui suggère que les arbres sont plus vulnérables aux changements climatiques.• La densité du peuplement pourrait amortir la réponse au climat en lissant les extrêmes climatiques. Néanmoins, les effets de la concurrence pourraient inverser cet effet positif au niveau de...

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Section: Population Response To Climatementioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-growth variability in Quercus ilex L. west Iberian open woodlands of different stand density

Gea‐Izquierdo¹,

Martín-Benito²,

Cherubini

et al. 2009

Ann. For. Sci.

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“…With T-mode and correlation matrix in PCA, and K-means CL previously oriented by Ward's hierarchical method, Romero et al (1999a) identified 19 atmospheric circulation patterns at two levels (925 and 500 hPa) related to significant rainfall days for Mediterranean Spain. The patterns obtained have been related to the precipitation spatial patterns obtained by the same authors via PCA and CL techniques for the area treated (Romero et al, 1999b), and recently changes have been estimated in these precipitation patterns for the late twenty-first century using the GCM ECHAM-OPYC3 (Sumner et al, 2003). Applying it to wind erosion events in sandy soil agricultural areas of southern Sweden, Ekström et al (2002) classified daily SLP circulation data and identified (via the definition of an Index of Erosion Severity) the patterns associated with large erosion damage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily atmospheric circulation catalogue for western Europe using multivariate techniques

Esteban

Martín‐Vide

Mases³

2006

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study uses principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering (CL) techniques to characterize the daily surface synoptic circulation patterns over the region 30°N-60°N by 30°W-15°E, for the period 1960-2001 using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project data. The methodology used, previously proposed by Esteban et al. (2005) to identify heavy snowfall days over Andorra (Pyrenees), involves a pre-processing approach consisting of a spatial standardization of the data used for the rotated PCA on S-mode analysis and correlation matrix, and Varimax rotation of the retained components. For the clustering process, an alternative approximation based on the PCA results (positive and negative phases) to decide the centroids and the number of groups for the K-means clustering is shown, followed by the rejection of the iterations for this non-hierarchical algorithm. Twenty sea level pressure (SLP) circulation patterns were obtained, with all days classified. The composite maps for SLP and 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), the monthly distribution, and the long-term variability for each of the circulation patterns is obtained. The results are consistent with the subjective knowledge of the daily atmospheric circulation over the area treated, and seem to be an easy and accessible way for the synoptic studies of short-lived (from weekly to daily) phenomena. In addition, this methodology appears to be applicable to all climatic areas of the world, as it characterizes well enough the complex circulation variability at mid-latitudes, including the surface low-pressure gradient patterns normally located over the Mediterranean in summer.

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“…According to Sumner et al (2003), in the Spanish south Mediterranean, there is a currently marked diminution in wet flows coming from the Atlantic in the east, which provokes most of the rain in winter and spring. Consequently, the quantity of total annual precipitation will be reduced (GE and AM).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of dry periods along a pluviometric gradient in Mediterranean southern Spain

Ruíz-Sinoga

García-Marín

Gabarrón-Galeote

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:In southern Spain a longitudinal pluviometric gradient occurs under Mediterranean climatic conditions in an area that has at least two months of drought each year and very irregular rainfall. From the Strait of Gibraltar to the Cabo de Gata in Almería there is a reduction of more than 1,000 mm year −1 in the mean annual rainfall. Analysis of the frequency and intensity of drought periods is necessary in regions where water resources are scarce and the ecosystem is highly dependent on water availability. Drought periods in the region described above were analysed using the DDSLR (Dry Days Since Last Rain) index to i) characterize trends in number of dry days and the amount of rainfall along the pluviometric gradient, ii) assess how the DDSLR index changes along the gradient from semiarid to humid Mediterranean regions, and iii) contribute to studies addressing the importance of climatic gradients in relation to the dynamics of various ecosystems. The DDSLR method enables calculation of the probability of the occurrence of dry days (days without rain) at any time of the year, assessment of the risk of water deficits for vegetation during plant growth periods, and evaluation of the temporal variability of hydrological/geomorphological processes that depend on soil moisture throughout the year. The results showed that there is a critical period of rainfall scarcity during September and October, which has implications for the availability of soil water resources for vegetation.In short-term, the major problems are predicted for the Spanish Southern Mediterranean due to the increasing irregularity in precipitations: the number of days with no rains and drought periods are increased, but also a significant increment in the probabilities of extreme rainfalls exceeding 30 mm day −1 .

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An estimate of the effects of climate change on the rainfall of Mediterranean Spain by the late twenty first century

Cited by 87 publications

References 23 publications

Climate-growth variability in Quercus ilex L. west Iberian open woodlands of different stand density

Climate-growth variability in Quercus ilex L. west Iberian open woodlands of different stand density

Daily atmospheric circulation catalogue for western Europe using multivariate techniques

Analysis of dry periods along a pluviometric gradient in Mediterranean southern Spain

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