An Empirical Model of Fatalities and Injuries Due to Floods in Japan

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a largescale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

show abstract

“…Zhai et al (2006) analysed data from floods in Japan. They derived a relationship between the number of inundated houses and the loss of life.…”

Section: Other Methods For Coastal and River Floodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The reason for excluding these factors from further analysis is the lack of data concerning such circumstances gathered during (COSMC, 2009 andCSO, 2009) demonstrated close correlation between the PAR, property and property loss in the endangered area. The functional relationship between the number of flooded buildings and the number of fatalities was also confirmed by Zhai et al (2006). Material losses D were therefore used as an appropriate aggregated parameter containing all contributing factors mentioned above.…”

Section: The Aggregation Of Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A promising method was proposed by Zhai et al (2006), who derived a functional relationship between the number of flooded houses and the number of fatalities. This approach reflects mainly the population at risk and flood characteristics (depth, velocity, rate of water level rise) but omits the influence of other factors like warning, evacuation, etc.…”

Section: Current Methods Of Modelling Fatality Numbersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe

Brazdova

Říha

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.In this paper a model for the estimation of the number of potential fatalities is proposed based on data from 19 past floods in central Europe. First, the factors contributing to human losses during river floods are listed and assigned to the main risk factors: hazard -exposure -vulnerability. The order of significance of individual factors has been compiled by pairwise comparison based on experience with real flood events. A comparison with factors used in existing models for the estimation of fatalities during floods shows good agreement with the significant factors identified in this study. The most significant factors affecting the number of human losses in floods have been aggregated into three groups and subjected to correlation analysis. A close-fitting regression dependence is proposed for the estimation of loss of life and calibrated using data from selected real floods in central Europe. The application of the proposed model for the estimation of fatalities due to river floods is shown via a flood risk assessment for the locality of Krnov in the Czech Republic.

show abstract

“…However, a number of longitudinal studies have shown that this ratio is pretty stable if we take a historical average of multiple events and various types of injuries. For example, in Japan the ratio of deaths to injuries is 1 to 10 ( Zhai et al 2006), for the US it is 1 to 6 (Ashley and Ashley 2008). This means that it would be reasonable to assume for our case an approximate ratio of deaths to injuries between 1 to 5 and 1 to 10.…”

Section: Injuries Vs Fatalitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Composite Valuation of Immaterial Damage in Flooding: Value of Statistical Life, Value of Statistical Evacuation and Value of Statistical Injury

2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An Empirical Model of Fatalities and Injuries Due to Floods in Japan

Cited by 34 publications

References 8 publications

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe

Composite Valuation of Immaterial Damage in Flooding: Value of Statistical Life, Value of Statistical Evacuation and Value of Statistical Injury

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About