An Empirical Analysis of Risk Similarity among Major Transportation Projects Using Natural Language Processing

Erfani, Abdolmajid; Cui, Qingbin; Cavanaugh, Ian

doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0002206

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…During the determination of risk register items, a query was executed for the term "risk register" and "public-private partnership" in the abstract, resulting in only three relevant results (Ke et al, 2010;Mazher et al, 2018;Erfani et al, 2021) [48,50,51] in the Scopus database. In these studies, the term was used to refer to a list of risk factors, but they did not provide detailed sample risk registers or typical items found in registers, rendering them unsuitable for this research.…”

Section: Risk Register Items In the Literature And System Functions U...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Riesgo: A Knowledge-Based Qualitative Risk Assessment System for PPP Projects

Kuru,

Artan

2024

Buildings

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A successful public-private partnership (PPP) relies heavily on effective risk assessment, given the intricate risk factors and contractual arrangements involved. While quantitative risk assessment methods have received significant attention in the PPP literature, qualitative risk assessment, the sector’s predominant preference, remains underexplored, causing a low level of applicability of academic studies and indicating a noticeable research gap. A qualitative risk assessment tool prototype, Riesgo, is developed in this paper as a customizable, knowledge-based digital risk register incorporating a pre-defined template that guides users using PPP risk factors, compensation and mitigation options, project information requirements, and risk register items. This paper presents the proposed system architecture, explains the research steps adopted in determining the system elements, and delineates the system functions through a use case developed to illustrate the process and information flows. The prototype was verified by 13 PPP experts who employed it for risk assessment, and their feedback was utilized for further development. A validation survey of 21 professionals affirmed Riesgo’s usability and applicability in the industry. The customizable and knowledge-based prototype has the potential to streamline effective risk assessment and guide the users across various PPP phases, such as early risk assessment, feasibility studies, contract preparation, and monitoring.

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Section: Risk Register Items In the Literature And System Functions U...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Riesgo: A Knowledge-Based Qualitative Risk Assessment System for PPP Projects

Kuru,

Artan

2024

Buildings

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“…Besides, recent research identifies some new risk allocation criteria, such as governance environment (corruption, government, legislation, and regulatory quality) (Wang et al, 2019a), public support (Pellegrino, 2021), SPV partners (Burke & Demirag, 2019) and risk cost (Almarri et al, 2019). Risk management is also incorporating novel theories and methodologies, including fuzzy set theory (Ameyaw & Chan, 2015;Mazher et al, 2018), bargaining game theory (Li et al, 2017), Monte Carlo simulation (Carbonara et al, 2014), Natural Language Processing (Erfani et al, 2021). As PPP practices evolve and the external environment changes, new risks like Residual Value Risk (RVR) (Yuan et al, 2015(Yuan et al, , 2018a and the COVID-19 pandemic (Casady & Baxter, 2020) emerge.…”

Section: Risk Management Topics In Pppmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Review of the Public–private Partnership Literature Published Between 2012 and 2021

Sun

Fang

et al. 2023

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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After approximately 30 years of development, public-private partnership (PPP) has attracted increased attention as an alternative procurement paradigm. However, fresh research on PPP has emerged in the last decade that needs to be summarized. This study selects publications on PPP that were published in recognized journals between 2012 and 2021 from the Scopus database. In target publications, methodologies employed, contributions made, and fields applied are summarized. Social network analysis is used to summarize five core topics in PPP from a multidisciplinary perspective; they are risk management, contract management, CFFs and CSFs, economic and financial issues, and performance management. Additionally, the research limitations and future development direction of PPP are also examined. This study can shed some light on future research on PPP and can contribute to the practice of PPP.

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Section: Definition and Understanding Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent studies have combined historical knowledge with AI-based approaches to learn from the risk and uncertainty domain [15,18]. For instance, Erfani et al [15] used a datadriven model with Natural Language Processing (NLP) and deep learning to measure the similarity of risk registers, which belong to experts in major transportation projects. In other research by Jallan and Ashuri [18], they developed a structured method using text mining and NLP capabilities to draw out information from "textual disclosures".…”

Section: Definition and Understanding Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Knowledge about the Origins of Uncertainties from the Pre-Project Phase of Road Projects

et al. 2022

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To succeed with projects, we need to understand and manage uncertainty. Uncertainties impact a project’s cost, time, and quality performance. The project’s front end is challenging for decision makers due to the high level of uncertainty. This paper identifies the most common uncertainties and their origin in the pre-project phase of large road projects. It also analyses the changes in these factors over 20 years. Document studies collected information about uncertainty factors identified in the early phase of 90 large road projects. The research strategy was explanatory, and data were collected from quality assurance reports from a population of large Norwegian road projects. The project cost varies between USD 30 million and over USD 2 billion. Then, 15-factor groups were established for categorising uncertainties. This study shows a rise in uncertainty factors with operational origins and a decrease in uncertainty factors with strategic and contextual origins over the last 20 years. Identifying and understanding common uncertainties and their origins provides policymakers, practitioners, and researchers with useful insights for policy revision and investment decision making and facilitates a proper focus regarding uncertainty analyses in the front end of road projects.

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An Empirical Analysis of Risk Similarity among Major Transportation Projects Using Natural Language Processing

Cited by 13 publications

References 45 publications

Riesgo: A Knowledge-Based Qualitative Risk Assessment System for PPP Projects

Riesgo: A Knowledge-Based Qualitative Risk Assessment System for PPP Projects

A Systematic Review of the Public–private Partnership Literature Published Between 2012 and 2021

Knowledge about the Origins of Uncertainties from the Pre-Project Phase of Road Projects

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