An economic assessment of tropical cyclone risk on offshore wind farms

Abstract

Frequent tropical cyclones pose great risks and obstacles to the development of offshore wind farms in the coastal regions of China and other areas in the Pacific, where development of wind energy is gaining momentum. This paper aims to identify and evaluate the risks of tropical cyclones on offshore wind farms within the Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) of China and help improve decision-making for planners and investors. The risks of tropical cyclone impact in this paper are defined by the statistical extreme wind climate and the expected economic losses of offshore wind farms. A probabilistic tropical cyclone event model is applied to evaluate 20-year, 30-year, 50-year and 100-year recurrence of extreme wind speeds by geographical location. Combining a damage model derived from empirical loss data and an investment cost model within a Geographical Information System (GIS), the expected annual losses of offshore wind farms from tropical cyclones are evaluated and shown on a spatially continuous risk map. Results are given in terms of annual economic risks and damage losses based on occurrence of an average recurrence interval. Implications for identifying locations for offshore wind farms and resource potential and costs are then discussed. The impact of tropical cyclones on offshore wind farms likes a double-edged sword, which might be advantageous for some regions in terms of increasing full-loaded hours of turbines, but also disadvantageous for others due to its destructive effects. However, specific design standards and insurance of turbines would help reduce the risks and economic losses of offshore wind farms in tropical cyclone-prone areas and expand exploitable locations for future offshore wind farms.

A novel hybrid MCDM approach for offshore wind farm site selection: A case study of Iran

“…The challenges and opportunities that exist in the development stages of an offshore wind farm project, from exploration to erection and installation of wind turbines, construction of platforms, up to maintenance and de-commissioning, involving important technical aspects are addressed. A number of investigations conducted by some researchers in the design and economic assessment of a wind farm addressed and help improve decision making for planners and investors (Rehman et al, 2011;Hong and M€ oller, 2012;Ladenburg and Lutzeyer, 2012).…”

Probabilistic risk assessment on wind turbine towers subjected to cyclone‐induced wind loads

“…As for wind turbines is concerned, Rose et al presented a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed in an offshore wind farm under hurricane wind‐induced loads. Hong and Möller identified and evaluated the economic risk on offshore wind farms by tropical cyclones for improving decision making for planners and investors in China. Continuous research on risk assessment for Mexico is desirable, since the country is struck not only by hurricanes but also by many other natural phenomena every year.…”

“…Besides probabilistic features, the wind hazard intensity must be quantified in terms of a relevant damage‐related measure. A 3‐second gust wind speed has been used before for tiny structures subjected to gustiness effects; maximum sustained (10‐min mean) wind speed for turbine towers (eg, Rose et al) or 3‐second gust wind speed at the hub height for turbine tower (eg, Hong and Möller) has been employed as well. In this study, the selected parameter of intensity is the 3‐second gust wind speed at 10 m height, including the variation because of the friction with the surface of the ground and local topography.…”

“…In this study, the vulnerability function represents the expected damage value suffered by each wind turbine class because of the occurrence of a given wind intensity; these are different for each class, independently of the occurrence and frequency of the wind hazard caused by cyclones. They can be deduced by theoretical models or by empirical statistical relationships between wind speed and damage ratio from tropical cyclones data (eg, Hong and Möller). For a given site, vulnerability functions incorporate the expected damage related to the wind intensity.…”

Policy Learning and Central–Local Relations: A Case Study of the Pricing Policies for Wind Energy in China (from 1994 to 2009)

“…(), Han et al . (), and Hong and Möller () studied technology options of wind power that include onshore, offshore and decentralized wind farms. Some studies examined major policy developments and challenges (Liao et al ., ; Liu and Kokko, ) while some evaluated policy effectiveness (Wang, ).…”