An econometric study of the determinants of food security in Egypt

Abstract

The research aimed at diagnosing the status of agricultural production in the field of food and its ability to achieve food security, as well as studying exports, imports, production and consumption of agricultural commodities and identifying the full causes of the food problem and the lack of food security, and then proposing some future solutions to solve the problem, especially in light of the developments of the Russian-Ukrainian war and its effects. The expected prices of feed, and then animal production on the one hand and the strategic wheat stock on the other hand.The problem of the research is the extent to which the state is able to provide and make sufficient food supplies available to citizens, but it extends to the circumstances of the extent of individuals' ability to obtain food in light of the low rate of self-sufficiency in food commodities and the continued increase in the food gap, which negatively affects Egyptian food security, especially In light of the expected effects of the current Russian-Ukrainian war, and despite the recent increase in agricultural production, this increase is not commensurate with the increasing consumer needs, which indicates the widening of the food gap in basic food commodities and with the increase in international prices of food commodities, large groups of low-income populations It will face severe problems in its ability to obtain its necessary food needs, which requires the import of food from abroad to fill this gap.To achieve its objectives, the research relied on quantitative analysis by using multiple equation models (simultaneous equations). The model consists of ( 22) equations that are integrated with each other in an integrated manner, and to determine the most important variables that affect Egyptian food security. Some indicators related to the volume of studies of exports and imports were also calculated. This production and consumption is in addition to predicting the food groups, which include (cereals -cereals -vegetables -fruits -sugars -oils -meat).