An assessment of the climate change impacts on groundwater recharge at a continental scale using a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of GCMs

Crosbie, Russell; Pickett, Trevor; Mpelasoka, Freddie; Hodgson, Geoff; Charles, Stephen P.; Barron, Olga

doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0558-6

Cited by 80 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…[13] The methods used in this study were selected to mirror those used by Crosbie et al [2013] for investigating climate change impacts on recharge in Australia. This approach was selected in order to allow for comparisons between the current study and the previous study without added uncertainty stemming from methodological differences (comprehensive comparison between results from the High Plains and Australia will be the subject of a future investigation).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These 16 GCMs were selected because they had daily data archived by the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set [Meehl et al, 2007] and are the same 16 GCMs as used by Crosbie et al [2013]. The CMIP3 model data were used rather than the CMIP5 model data to enable a comparison to previous work.…”

Section: Point-scale Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential climate change effects on groundwater recharge in the High Plains Aquifer, USA

Crosbie

Scanlon

Mpelasoka

et al. 2013

Water Resources Research

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173

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[1] Considering that past climate changes have significantly impacted groundwater resources, quantitative predictions of climate change effects on groundwater recharge may be valuable for effective management of future water resources. This study used 16 global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios to investigate changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2050 climate relative to a 1990 climate in the U.S. High Plains region. Groundwater recharge was modeled using the Soil-Vegetation-AtmosphereTransfer model WAVES for a variety of soil and vegetation types representative of the High Plains. The median projection under a 2050 climate includes increased recharge in the Northern High Plains (þ8%), a slight decrease in the Central High Plains (À3%), and a larger decrease in the Southern High Plains (À10%), amplifying the current spatial trend in recharge from north to south. There is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and direction of these changes in recharge projections. Predicted changes in recharge between dry and wet future climate scenarios encompass both an increase and decrease in recharge rates, with the magnitude of this range greater than 50% of current recharge. On a proportional basis, sensitivity of recharge to changes in rainfall indicates that areas with high current recharge rates are least sensitive to change in rainfall and vice versa. Sensitivity analyses indicate an amplification of change in recharge compared to change in rainfall, and this amplification is in the range of 1-6 with an average of 2.5-3.5 depending upon the global warming scenario.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Point-scale Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential climate change effects on groundwater recharge in the High Plains Aquifer, USA

Crosbie

Scanlon

Mpelasoka

et al. 2013

Water Resources Research

Self Cite

173

142

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“…WAVES has been shown to perform similarly to three other hydrological models in a comparison study of the climate change impacts on recharge . As has previously been done (Crosbie et al, 2010b(Crosbie et al, , 2012b, drainage below the bottom of a 4-m soil column is assumed to become groundwater recharge; this is to be considered potential dryland diffuse recharge as other forms of recharge (e.g. focused recharge or irrigation drainage) are not considered in this paper.…”

Section: Recharge Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These three classes of vegetation have traditionally been used in classifying vegetation for field-based recharge studies (Crosbie et al, 2010a; Petheram et al, 2002), and this has been carried forward into modelling studies (Crosbie et al, 2010b(Crosbie et al, , 2012b. Annuals are mainly shallow rooted crops and pasture; there is no ground cover for part of the year so recharge is highest under this vegetation type.…”

Section: Recharge Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The annuals (including crops) were modelled as annual pasture; the perennials were modelled as perennial pasture and the trees (including forestry) as an overstorey of eucalypts with an understorey of perennial grasses. Each climate zone used different parameters for each of the three vegetation types modelled to account for different species present in each climate zone (Crosbie et al, 2012b).…”

Section: Recharge Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatic controls on diffuse groundwater recharge across Australia

Barron

Crosbie

Dawes

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Reviews of field studies of groundwater recharge have attempted to investigate how climate characteristics control recharge, but due to a lack of data have not been able to draw any strong conclusions beyond that rainfall is the major determinant. This study has used numerical modelling for a range of Köppen-Geiger climate types (tropical, arid and temperate) to investigate the effect of climate variables on recharge for different soil and vegetation types. For the majority of climate types, the correlation between the modelled recharge and total annual rainfall is weaker than the correlation between recharge and the annual rainfall parameters reflecting rainfall intensity. Under similar soil and vegetation conditions for the same annual rainfall, annual recharge in regions with winter-dominated rainfall is greater than in regions with summer-dominated rainfall. The importance of climate parameters other than rainfall in recharge estimation is highest in the tropical climate type. Mean annual values of solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit show a greater importance in recharge estimation than mean annual values of the daily mean temperature. Climate parameters have the lowest relative importance in recharge estimation in the arid climate type (with cold winters) and the temperate climate type. For 75 % of all soil, vegetation and climate types investigated, recharge elasticity varies between 2 and 4 indicating a 20 % to 40 % change in recharge for a 10 % change in annual rainfall. Understanding how climate controls recharge under the observed historical climate allows more informed choices of analogue sites if they are to be used for climate change impact assessments.

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How to embrace uncertainty in participatory climate change risk management—A roadmap

Döll

Romero‐Lankao

2017

Earth's Future

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The Earth's future depends on how we manage the manifold risks of climate change (CC). It is state-of-the-art to assume that risk reduction requires participatory management involving a broad range of stakeholders and scientists. However, there is still little knowledge about the optimal design of participatory climate change risk management processes (PRMPs), in particular with respect to considering the multitude of substantial uncertainties that are relevant for PRMPs. To support the many local to regional PRMPs that are necessary for a successful global-scale reduction of CC risks, we present a roadmap for designing such transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes. The roadmap suggests ways in which uncertainties can be comprehensively addressed within a PRMP. We discuss the concept of CC risks and their management and propose an uncertainty framework that distinguishes epistemic, ontological, and linguistic uncertainty as well as ambiguity. Uncertainties relevant for CC risk management are identified. Communicative and modeling methods that support social learning as well as the development of risk management strategies are proposed for each of six phases of a PRMP. Finally, we recommend how to evaluate PRMPs as such evaluations and their publication are paramount for achieving a reduction of CC risks.

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An assessment of the climate change impacts on groundwater recharge at a continental scale using a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of GCMs

Cited by 80 publications

References 26 publications

Potential climate change effects on groundwater recharge in the High Plains Aquifer, USA

Potential climate change effects on groundwater recharge in the High Plains Aquifer, USA

Climatic controls on diffuse groundwater recharge across Australia

How to embrace uncertainty in participatory climate change risk management—A roadmap

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