An assessment of predictive forecasting of Juniperus ashei pollen movement in the Southern Great Plains, USA

Abstract

Juniperus ashei pollen, a significant aeroallergen, has been recorded during December and January in Tulsa, Oklahoma, over the past 20 years. The nearest upwind source for this pollen is populations growing in southern Oklahoma and central Texas, at distances of 200 km and 600 km respectively. Long-distance dispersal of J. ashei pollen into the Tulsa area shows a strong correlation with the trajectories of wind blowing across southern populations before traveling north towards eastern Oklahoma. The strong tie between climatic conditions and the occurrence of this aeroallergen within the Tulsa, Oklahoma, atmosphere provided a unique opportunity to forecast the dispersal, entrainment, and downwind deposition of this significant aeroallergen. Forecasts of long-distance J. ashei pollen dispersal began during the winter of 1998/1999. Each forecast uses defined climatic parameters to signal pollination at each source site. Coupled to these estimates of pollen release, forecast weather conditions and modeled wind trajectories are used to determine the threat of dispersal to downwind communities. The accuracy of these forecasts was determined by comparing the forecast "threat" to aerobiological records for the same period collected in the "Tulsa region". Analysis of the two seasons revealed only a single occurrence of "high" or "very high" pollen concentrations in Tulsa not directly linked to "moderate" or "severe" forecast threats from the southern source areas.

Transport of airborne pollen into the city of Thessaloniki: the effects of wind direction, speed and persistence

“…Nevertheless, pollen from taxa not representative of the local or regional vegetation is also recorded, implying long-range transport (Munuera Giner et al 2002;). The distance pollen travels, once released into the air, is closely related to the wind as a vectorial quantity (Solomon 1984;Hjelmroos 1991;Cour et al 1999;Munuera Giner et al 1999;Van de Water et al 2003). Long-distance pollen transport into the city of Thessaloniki has been confirmed by aerobiological records .…”

“…Detailed analysis of the effect of wind is necessary if we are to achieve forecasting ability regarding the air pollen load. Pollen can be transferred from distant sources outside the sampling area (Stix 1975;Solomon and Mathews 1978;Hjelmroos 1991;Campbell et al 1999;Cour et al 1999;Van de Water et al 2003). This is particularly true in urban areas, where Burkard traps are usually located.…”

“…This is mainly due to the fact that pollen grains are frequently implicated in respiratory allergy symptoms, but also because of the high economic importance associated with some of them. For these reasons, forecasting of the main pollen season is a common pursuit for many researchers (Munuera Giner et al 1999;Laaidi 2001;Adams-Groom et al 2002;Gioulekas et al 2003;Laaidi et al 2003; Van de Water et al 2003;Vazquez et al 2003).…”

Ecosystem carbon changes with woody encroachment of grassland in the northern Great Plains

“…At an ecological level, such conversion exacerbates landscape fragmentation (Coppedge et al 2002), eliminates habitat for grassland species (Coppedge et al 2001;Rosenstock and Van Riper 2001;Horncastle et al 2005;Frost and Powell 2011), reduces plant species richness (Ratajczak et al 2012), and changes carbon cycling and storage Natural Areas Journal 119 (Wessman et al 2004;Barger et al 2011). Societal effects of grassland conversion include lost forage, lost or fragmented ranches and the economic (livestock production) and recreational (hunting, birding, aesthetic) benefits they provide, as well as increased wildfire danger resulting from increased fuel loading (Burkinshaw and Bork 2009) and human health issues exacerbated by allergenic juniper pollen pulses (Van de Water et al 2003). Once converted, restoring shrub/tree-invaded areas back to functioning grassland can be costly (Ortmann et al 1998).…”

Comparison of phenological, aerobiological and melissopalynological patterns of Olea europaea

“…Airborne pollen is very mobile, due to its size and structure. The long-distance transport of pollen is well known, and several studies have demonstrated the ability of airborne pollen to transfer hundreds of kilometres away (Cambon et al, 1992;Cabezudo et al, 1997;Latorre, 1997;Jato et al, 2002b;Kasprzyk, 2003;Rousseau et al, 2003;Van de Water et al, 2003;Lorenzo et al, 2006;Ranta et al, 2006;Estrella et al, 2006). Therefore, pollen found in airborne pollen traps does not necessarily reflect the pollen from the studied surroundings.…”