An assessment of observed and projected temperature changes in Armenia

Abstract

Future changes in annual and seasonal temperature over Armenia based on the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) output data from newly developed dataset of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been analysed. The results of this study suggest that Armenia will experience significant temperature increase in the twenty-first century. Moreover, the greatest warming is expected in the summertime and can reach 4-6°C under representative concentration pathways (RCP)8.5 for the middle and end of the century. However, observations show significant variability and seasonal amplitude in temperature regime which is peculiar to mountain regions located in mid-latitudes. It was shown that strong cold wave events can be directly followed by prolonged hot days within one year in Armenia. The CCSM4 model has substantial deficiencies in simulating the regional climate over Armenia. Validation results indicate the largest errors (root-mean-square error (RMSE)) in the representation of winter temperatures. There is also significant uncertainty in projected temperature change patterns in Armenia over the twenty-first century. However, the CCSM4 model becomes more confident in the prediction of temperature increase over Armenia toward the end of the century.

Simulating thermal dynamics of the largest lake in the Caucasus region: The mountain Lake Sevan

“…Moreover, its simplicity is helpful to keep the results easily interpretable by lake managers and to have a straightforward scenario design where only one variable is changed at a given time. Additionally, the suggested warming scenarios up to +5 K are in accordance to the assessment of projected temperature changes in Armenia where warming is expected in the summertime to reach values greater than 4 K for the worst case scenario (Gevorgyan et al, 2016;Vardanyan et al, 2014;Vermishev et al, 2015).…”

“…Until 2100, a decrease of precipitation by 4.6% and river flow by 40.8% in parallel with an increase in evaporation by 17.8% had been estimated for Lake Sevan and its catchment (Yu et al, 2014). It has moreover been projected that Armenia will experience significant warming in the future, and air temperature at the end of the century can be 4-6 °C higher than current climate conditions (Gevorgyan et al, 2016). However, a quantitative assessment of climate warming effects on the water body of Lake Sevan is still missing.…”

Convection‐Permitting Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Event in Armenia Using the WRF Model

“…Furthermore, previous studies confirm that Armenia and the Armenian Highland represent an especially challenging region for modeling not only precipitation but also wind and temperature (Evans et al, ; Gevorgyan, ; Gevorgyan & Melkonyan, ) due to impact of topographically induced mesoscale circulations. It is worth noting that the study area is highly vulnerable to climate change (Gevorgyan et al, ), while there are still high uncertainties in precipitation projections in climate models. Therefore, it is of high importance to understand the capabilities and limitations of modeling heavy and extreme convective‐scale precipitation events in Armenia.…”

Distribution of Biodiversity of Wild Beet Species (Genus Beta L.) in Armenia under Ongoing Climate Change Conditions

“…Relatively high temperatures can be seen in Ararat Valley (south-west), the north-eastern and south-eastern valley regions of Armenia. The more mountainous regions experience lower average temperatures, with sub-zero average annual temperatures at altitudes above 2500 m [ 8 , 9 ]. The strong annual cycle of temperature well-defines differences for all four seasons ( Figure S2 , [ 8 ]).…”

“…There is a projected decline in atmospheric precipitation, however, the precise assessments of future precipitation levels are uncertain due to the large number of affecting factors. While vulnerability for water resources in Armenia varies, under a ‘worst-case scenario’ the average decrease in river flow is estimated at 39% by 2100 [ 9 , 13 , 16 ].…”