An appraisal of the Great Lakes advanced hydrologic prediction system

Gronewold, Andrew D.; Clites, Anne H.; Hunter, Timothy; Stow, Craig A.

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2011.06.010

Cited by 47 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 44 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is employed in seasonal operational water supply and water level forecasting by water resource and hydropower 5 management authorities (Gronewold et al, 2011) and is used as a basis for long-term historical monthly average evaporation records (Hunter et al, 2015). It has historically been calibrated and verified using observed ice cover and surface water temperature, but not turbulent flux, data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating and improving modeled turbulent heat fluxes across the North American Great Lakes

Charusombat¹,

Fujisaki‐Manome²,

Gronewold³

et al. 2018

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating and improving modeled turbulent heat fluxes across the North American Great Lakes

Charusombat¹,

Fujisaki‐Manome²,

Gronewold³

et al. 2018

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…The NBS is defined as the sum of the net atmospheric supply of water (that is the difference between precipitation that falls into the lakes and evaporation from lakes) and the supply from the land through the Great Lakes' tributary streams (i.e., runoff). A comprehensive overview of the AHPS modeling system is provided in Gronewold et al (2011). It is important to highlight that AHPS is primarily intended for seasonal forecasting, and not necessarily for longer-term climate-scale projections, in which energy and water budget conservation play an important role.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydrometeorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041-2070) and present (1971-1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.

show abstract

“…More specifically, the skill of Great Lakes seasonal waterlevel forecasts in 2011 and 2012 was significantly diminished relative to previous time periods (for further discussion on research-oriented and operational Great Lakes water-level forecasting systems, see Gronewold et al 2011). Scheffer et al (2012) propose that rising variance is a leading indicator of a pending regime shift; it appears that disruptions in the normal oscillation pattern of Lake Erie water levels could indeed be a symptom of a system in transition.…”

Section: Unprecedented Seasonal Water Level Dynamics On One Of the Eamentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcast

2014

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An appraisal of the Great Lakes advanced hydrologic prediction system

Cited by 47 publications

References 44 publications

Evaluating and improving modeled turbulent heat fluxes across the North American Great Lakes

Evaluating and improving modeled turbulent heat fluxes across the North American Great Lakes

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Nowcast

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About