An Application of Evidence Theory to Subject Matter Expert Based Technology Portfolio Analysis

Akram, Farooq; Prior, Matthew A.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

doi:10.2514/6.2011-1413

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…An even more general method than D-S theory is Dezer-Smarandache (DSm) theory, which uses new models for the FD and new rules of combination to take into account paradoxical and uncertain information. 108 Akram and Mavris use D-S theory for a technology valuation process / technology portfolio analysis, [109][110][111][112][113] and conclude it is better capable of providing insight into epistemic uncertainties, as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Additionally they state: "It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge."…”

Section: B Uncertainty Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty-Based Design Optimization and Technology Evaluation: A Review

Roelofs

Vos

2018

2018 AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting

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Evaluation and assessment of novel technologies for aerospace applications is essential for business strategy and decision making regarding development efforts. Since technology is evaluated in the conceptual design phase and little is known about the technology, large uncertainty is present. This uncertainty needs to be accurately assessed and managed. To investigate the research efforts that have been performed to perform technology evaluation under uncertainty, a literature review was conducted, focusing on methods and modeling approaches to assign and quantify these uncertainties. It is found that probability theory is still the most popular theory for representing uncertainty. Polynomial Chaos Expansions and Stochastic Collocation methods are gaining popularity for propagating uncertainty through a modeling environment, but Monte Carlo Simulations are still widely used. Commonly, surrogate models are used to reduce computational effort. Other efforts focus on the use of multifidelity approaches to reduce computational effort when high-fidelity methods are required. Four issues that may need to be addressed in future research were identified.

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Section: B Uncertainty Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty-Based Design Optimization and Technology Evaluation: A Review

Roelofs

Vos

2018

2018 AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting

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“…Clearly, to propose innovation in critical conditions, private initiative uses its available resources as human capital or economic resources. In the two case studies, human capital, particularly the knowledge of legal practice, is fundamental to activate "negative capabilities" and develop "expertdriven" (Prior et al 2011;Potts et al 2010) IT innovation.…”

Section: Negative Capabilities: Organizational Precondition For Techn...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in some cases presented later in this article (Section 4), ICTs created by the private initiatives Laws 2022, 11, 51 of lawyers for justice professionals bridge the gap between public administration services incapable of keeping pace with technological evolution. Like other areas of application, these forms of innovation can be defined as subject-matter expert-driven IT developments (Prior et al 2011;Potts et al 2010) (different from simple private-driven innovations) due to the requirement of legal expertise for proposing expert technological solutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smart Justice in Italy: Cases of Apps Created by Lawyers for Lawyers and Beyond

Lupo

Carnevali

2022

Laws

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The smart city literature states that three levels of institutional layers (regulatory, normative, and cognitive) and four typologies of actors (government, universities, citizens, and the private sector) support private initiative for developing smart technologies. Focusing on the emergent phenomenon of smart apps ideated by lawyers’ private initiatives, this paper acknowledges that other factors, including the ubiquity of mobile technologies and the absence of effective public services provided by public institutions, contribute to the institutional and organizational humus necessary for the creation of intelligent technological proposals. In the light of the organizational theory framework, and based on the analysis of the literature on smart cities and e-justice and on the empirical investigation of two Italian lawyers’ apps (Collega and Anthea), this paper identifies the institutional, organizational, and technological conditions under which smart technologies are being developed in high-regulated public institutions’ contexts as justice systems. The findings of the study described in this paper help integrate the contribution of the literature on the topic.

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“…Even though all of the mentioned research uses probability theory, there are alternatives: Bayesian theory, possibility theory [14], interval analysis [15,16], and Dempster-Schafer (D-S) theory [17][18][19]. Akram et al [20][21][22][23][24] use D-S theory for a technology valuation process-technology portfolio analysis. While there are strong arguments against theories other than (subjective) probability theory [25,26], the most relevant argument in the current context is that only Bayesian theory supports the inverse problem, besides probability theory.…”

Section: Selecting Technologies In Aircraft Conceptualmentioning

confidence: 99%