An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

Abstract

RESUMOT he a im of this stu dy wa s to eva lu a te the potentia l risk of monilia sis occu rrence a nd the impa cts of clima te cha nge on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favora bility ma ps were devised for the oc cu r renc e o f m oni lia sis, bo th for the pr esen t a nd fu t u re tim e. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the deca des of 2 020, 2 0 5 0 a nd 2 0 8 0 . T hese scena r ios we re obt a ined from six glo ba l clima t e models (GC Ms) ma de a va ila ble by th e third a sse ssment re po rt o f In te rgo ve rn me nt a l Pa ne l on C li ma te Ch a n ge ( IP CC for m on i li a sis in Br a z il , e sp ec i a l l y i n r e g io n s a t h i gh ri sk o f in tro du c tio n o f t ha t pa tho gen . C onside rin g t he glo ba l wa rmi ng scena rios provided by the IPCC, the potentia l risk of monilia sis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both futu re scenarios, bu t will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, pa rticu la rly in Bra zil's ma in producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo a ltera tions du e to climate cha nge, which will a ffect the extent of their impa cts on this pa thosystem.Este traba lho teve como objetivo ava lia r o potencia l risco de ocorrên cia da monil ía se e os im pa ctos da s m u da nça s clim á tica s so bre esta doe nça na s déca das futura s, caso este patógeno seja m introduzida no Brasil. Para tal, elaboraram-se mapas de favorabilidade climática à ocorrência da monilíase no período atu al e fu tu ro. v.38, n.1, p.30-35, 2012. principa lmente em regiões qu e apresentam a lto risco de introdu ção do p a t óg en o. C on si de ra nd o os c en á r io s de a qu ec im en to g lo ba l previsto pelo IPCC, haverá a redu çã o do potencial risco climático de ocorr ência da monilí a se no Bra sil. Ta l redu çã o é pr edita em a mb os c ená r ios futuros, porém ocorrerá de forma mais a centua da a dmitindo-se o cená rio A2 . No enta nto, a inda ha verá á rea s qu e a presenta ra m condições de fa vora bilida de climá tica a o desenvolvimento da doença , principa lmente na s ma iores regiões produtoras do Brasil. Além disso, tanto o patógeno como o hospedeiro poderão sofrer alterações com mudanças climáticas, o que influenciará magnitu de dos seu s impa ctos sobre este pa tossistema .

Fuzzy modeling of the risk of cacao moniliasis occurrence in Bahia state, Brazil

“…Thus, these regions do not reach the ideal temperature range for moniliasis development; however, they are not traditional areas for cacao cultivation. Moraes et al (2012) reported that, in Brazil, the development of moniliasis was more favorable from November to May between 1961 and 1990. This interval is compatible with the time of fruit development, which can lead to large production losses.…”

“…In Brazil, the areas with the greatest climatic potential for the occurrence of Moniliophthora roreri are found in the Northeast region, especially in southern Bahia (Moraes et al, 2012). This study focused on the main cocoa-producing region in Southern Bahia, which presents high temperature and air relative humidity during most of the year, making it a high-risk region if the disease were introduced to Brazil.…”

Climate change and the risk of spread of the fungus from the high mortality of Theobroma cocoa in Latin America

“…Es necesario crear un cordón de control y monitoreo constante que permita alertas tempranas y detección de brotes incipientes. En caso contrario, M. roreri podría devastar los cultivos de cacao brasileños y bolivianos, como está comenzando a suceder en la actualidad [7,16,65].…”

Linking Plant Disease Models to Climate Change Scenarios to Project Future Risks of Crop Diseases: A Review

“…However, some crop production systems will likely need to be adapted to higher temperature conditions, for example, cacao (Theobroma cacao) production systems, where new cultivars adapted to the new environmental conditions (e.g. better adapted to heat stress) may be required (Moraes et al 2012a). Moreover, climate change may also alter the effectiveness of genetic resistance of cacao cultivars, which currently show moderate disease resistance to moniliosis (caused by Moniliophthora roreri).…”

“…In addition, an adaptation option is to cultivate cacao intercropped with forest plant species, because cacao is well adapted to shade. However, shade may also modify the potential for moniliasis occurrence on cacao due to alternations of the microclimatic conditions including leaf temperature and wetness duration (Moraes et al 2012a). This example illustrates that future disease risk is not only dependent on the future climatic conditions, but also on the yet unknown alternations of the cropping system, which ultimately creates complex interactions of the crop with various biotic and abiotic factors.…”