An Analysis of the Occurrence Probabilities of Wet and Dry Periods through a Stochastic Monthly Rainfall Model

Caloiero, Tommaso; Sirangelo, B.; Coscarelli, Roberto; Ferrari, Ennio

doi:10.3390/w8020039

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 110 publications

(111 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…; Caloiero et al . ). Alternatively, past climatic information stored in specific trees can be utilized to produce extended precipitation record in the region where trees exist.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Design of water storage facilities and plans for water release from surface and ground sources depend on the magnitude and duration of the rainy (wet) season. The magnitude and duration of the wet season can be estimated after analyzing the historical precipitation records, however, the reliability of the estimated statistics becomes questionable especially when the used record length is short (Salas et al 2005;Caloiero et al 2016). Alternatively, past climatic information stored in specific trees can be utilized to produce extended precipitation record in the region where trees exist.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimation of consistent wet period characteristics for further improvement of water resources studies

Tarawneh

2017

Water & Environment J

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study presents an analysis of consistent wet periods for further improvement of water resources studies. While previous studies have focused on characterizing dry periods, this study uses tree‐ring reconstructed precipitation to detect the occurrence of wet periods of magnitude larger than what can be achieved from the analysis of the historical precipitation records. Tree‐ring reconstructed precipitation for Madaba region in Jordan that began in 1743 was used. The analysis of the historical precipitation indicated the occurrence of short wet periods (1–4 years). The analysis of the 239 years of the reconstructed precipitation indicated the occurrence of long wet periods (7 years), and wet period magnitude of 551 mm, that is 20% larger than the observed from the analysis of historical precipitation. Furthermore, this study presents theoretical formulation that can be used to estimate the expected number of wet events of desired length that could emerge during the operation period of surface resources.

show abstract

“…; Caloiero et al . ). Alternatively, past climatic information stored in specific trees can be utilized to produce extended precipitation record in the region where trees exist.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of consistent wet period characteristics for further improvement of water resources studies

Tarawneh

2017

Water & Environment J

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Because of this, the SPI method is considered a standout among the most powerful and effective drought indices [15]. Additionally, the assessment of the SPI only requires rainfall data, making it simpler to compute than more complex indices, and permits the evaluation of drought circumstances in various regions and for various time periods [11,14,[16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Event Analysis and Projection of Future Precipitation Scenario in Abaya Chamo Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

Gebeyehu

Zhao

Zhou

et al. 2019

J. Eng. Technol. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Monthly observed and future precipitation magnitudes were subjected to statistical trend analysis to examine possible time series behavior. Future precipitation was downscaled from large-scale output through statistical downscaling. The observed and downscaled future precipitation was analyzed for drought events using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method. In the Abaya Chamo sub-basin, Ethiopia precipitation is explained by below average magnitudes in most of the low land area, characterized by moderate to extreme drought episodes. Nine drought events were discerned during the period of 1988 to 2015, i.e. once in three years, resulting in harvest failure and subsequent food insecurity. The NCEP-NCAR and CanESM2 model predictors were used to statistically downscale the precipitation data. The monthly observed and downscaled precipitation magnitudes were in good agreement. The RCP-2.6, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 long-term future scenarios were computed to evaluate future drought patterns. The mean annual precipitation scenario decreased by 0.2% to 13.7%, 0.5% to 6.4% and 0.1% to 1.3% for the period from 2016 to 2040, 2050s and 2080s respectively. The increase in mean precipitation was projected to be 0.7% to 12.2%, 0.2% to 11.7% and 0.1% to 17.8% for the period from 2016 to 2040, 2050s and 2080s respectively. The present analysis may provide useful information associated to drought events to decision makers and can be used as a basis for future research in this area.

show abstract

“…Asimismo, los Modelos Estocásticos o Generadores Climáticos (GCs) han sido ampliamente implementados para la cuantificación y comportamiento de procesos meteorológicos (p. ej. Mishra et al, (2005)para la detección de sequías, para el análisis de probabilidades de ocurrencia de precipitación Caloiero et al, (2016) y para el pronóstico mensual de sequías Avilés et al, (2015).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Pronóstico de la ocurrencia de precipitación diaria en un gradiente altitudinal en el Sur del Ecuador mediante un generador climático

Flores¹,

Célleri²

2018

Enfoque UTE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

El pronóstico de precipitación es fundamental para mejorar la gestión de los recursos hídricos tanto para proyectos de aprovechamiento como de reducción de riesgos. Debido a su alta variabilidad, es un reto realizar un buen pronóstico de lluvia. En el presente estudio se empleó un generador climático (GC) para investigar la calidad del pronóstico de ocurrencia de precipitación diaria en una zona de montaña. El GC implementado usó como predictores a tres variables: la variable binaria ocurrencia del día anterior (Kt-1), las temperaturas máximas y mínimas del día anterior (Txt-1, Tnt-1, respectivamente); y dos covariables: las anomalías de la Temperatura mensual Superficial del Mar de las Regiones 1+2 y 3.4 de El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (Niño 1+2 y Niño 3.4 respectivamente). Determinamos que las variables Kt-1, Tnt-1 y la covariable Niño 3,4 mejoran el ajuste en el pronóstico. Encontramos diferencias notables en el número de días consecutivos secos y lluviosos en el gradiente altitudinal en un periodo lluvioso. El estudio permitió el planteamiento de varias hipótesis a partir del uso del GC las cuales ayudan a la comprensión del funcionamiento del sistema climático y el mejoramiento del pronóstico de precipitación.

show abstract

An Analysis of the Occurrence Probabilities of Wet and Dry Periods through a Stochastic Monthly Rainfall Model

Cited by 22 publications

References 110 publications

Estimation of consistent wet period characteristics for further improvement of water resources studies

Estimation of consistent wet period characteristics for further improvement of water resources studies

Drought Event Analysis and Projection of Future Precipitation Scenario in Abaya Chamo Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

Pronóstico de la ocurrencia de precipitación diaria en un gradiente altitudinal en el Sur del Ecuador mediante un generador climático

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About