An analysis of risky financial decisions

Abstract

A problem of financing uncertain cost of a project is investigated. The paper analyses the allocation and the loss due to the cost uncertainty. Different formulations of the problem are suggested and compared: expected profits, chance constraint maximization and a utility approach. It is shown that even a risk‐neutral manager is willing to pay a premium to reduce uncertainty. The two approaches to risk, chance constraint versus concave utility, are shown to be non‐equivalent.