An Algorithm for Evaluating and Improving the Statistical Stability of the Results of Retrospective Studies Based on Geochronological Tracking

Abstract

Geochronological tracking has been accorded wide recognition as an appropriate scientific and methodological toolkit and an effective information technology for retrospective research in the interests of substantiating and rationalizing transport route net-works, transportation logistics, analyzing the facts of population migration and movements of individual historical figures. A procedure based on geochronological tracking for statistical verification of research hypotheses has been developed about robust trends in the development of various spatiotemporal processes. The eliability and validity of accepting a particular hypothesis within the framework of a retrospective study is determined by the representativeness of the initial dataset on geographic movements, considered as a sample from the general population. The statistical significance (robustness) of the results of a retrospective study based on geochronological tracking depends on the sufficiency of the considered initial data on the movements of the objects under study. This article is devoted to the analysis of this dependence and the development of an algorithm for assessing the specified robustness (or significance).