An abrupt change in winds that may radically affect the coasts and deep sections of the Baltic Sea

Soomere, Tarmo; Bishop, Steven R.; Viška, Maija; Räämet, Andrus

doi:10.3354/cr01269

Cited by 31 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The shift year 1989 was found for the majority of time series analysed in this study. This result is in good concordance with the previous investigations in the same region (Keevallik and Soomere, 2008;Elken et al, 2014;Soomere et al, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…These dynamics were related to annual mean components of air flow of the adjusted geostrophic wind. A shift in simultaneity in annual mean wave length between eight stations in the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea was detected starting in 1988 (Soomere et al, 2015). This was related to the observed shifts in the annual mean zonal and meridional components of airflow of the adjusted geostrophic wind.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

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Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Time series of monthly, seasonal and annual mean air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers in Estonia are analysed for detecting of trends and regime shifts during 1951-2015. Trend analysis is realised using the Mann-Kendall test and regime shifts are detected with the Rodionov test (sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts). The results from Estonia are related to trends and regime shifts in time series of indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Annual mean air temperature has significantly increased at all 12 stations by 0.3-0.4 K decade −1 . The warming trend was detected in all seasons but with the higher magnitude in spring and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 3-4 days decade −1 . Changes in precipitation are not clear and uniform due to their very high spatial and temporal variability. The most significant increase in precipitation was observed during the cold half-year, from November to March and also in June. A time series of specific runoff measured at 21 stations had significant seasonal changes during the study period. Winter values have increased by 0.4-0.9 L s −1 km −2 decade −1 , while stronger changes are typical for western Estonia and weaker changes for eastern Estonia. At the same time, specific runoff in April and May have notably decreased indicating the shift of the runoff maximum to the earlier time, i.e. from April to March. Air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers are highly correlated in winter determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Correlation coefficients between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices reflecting the intensity of westerlies, and the studied variables were 0.5-0.8. The main result of the analysis of regime shifts was the detection of coherent shifts for air temperature, snow cover duration and specific runoff in the late 1980s, mostly since the winter of 1988/1989, which are, in turn, synchronous with the shifts in winter circulation. For example, runoff abruptly increased in January, February and March but decreased in April. Regime shifts in annual specific runoff correspond to the alternation of wet and dry periods. A dry period started in 1964 or 1963, a wet period in 1978 and the next dry period at the beginning of the 21st century.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

et al. 2017

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“…Thus, one possible reason might be the increased atmospheric zonal circulation linked with intensified precipitation in the Baltic region and increased river runoff to the Baltic Sea (Schinke and Matthäus, 1998;Lehmann et al, 2002Lehmann et al, , 2011). An alternative explanation has been recently proposed by Soomere et al (2015). They found a significant abrupt change in the meridional component of the airflow direction over the southern Baltic Sea around 1987.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Variability of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with large volume changes of the Baltic Sea

Lehmann

Post

2015

Adv. Sci. Res.

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Abstract. Salinity and stratification in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea are linked to the occurrence of Major Baltic Inflows (MBIs) of higher saline water of North Sea origin, which occur sporadically and transport higher saline and oxygenated water to deeper layers. Since the mid-1970s, the frequency and intensity of MBIs have decreased. They were completely absent between February 1983 and January 1993. However, in spite of the decreasing frequency of MBIs, there was no obvious decrease of larger Baltic Sea volume changes (LVCs). A LVC is defined by a total volume change of at least 100 km3. LVCs can be identified from the sea level changes at Landsort which is known to represent the mean sea level of the Baltic Sea very well. Strong inflows leading to LVCs are associated to a special sequence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Our analysis based on Jenkinson-Collison circulation (JCC) types confirms that most effective inflows occur if about a month before the main inflow period, eastern air flow with anticyclonic vorticity over the western Baltic prevails. These conditions reduce the mean sea level of the Baltic Sea and lead to an increased saline stratification in the Belt Sea area. An immediate period of strong to very strong westerly winds trigger the inflow and force LVCs/MBIs. The lack of MBIs coincide with a negative trend of eastern types and a parallel increase of western type JCCs.

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“…To understand the nature of the variation in the trends of the maxima of storm surge heights and of the weekly average water level, we first consider the spatial pattern of the relevant slopes of these trends in the study area for a fixed averaging interval of 8.25 days used in Soomere et al, (2015). There is a clear difference (up to 2-3 cm/decade) in the estimates of the slopes for the stormy season and for the calendar year (Figs.…”

Section: Spatial Distribution Of Slopes Of Trendsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

Soomere

Pindsoo

2016

Continental Shelf Research

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An abrupt change in winds that may radically affect the coasts and deep sections of the Baltic Sea

Cited by 31 publications

References 34 publications

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

Variability of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with large volume changes of the Baltic Sea

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

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