Alternative stories and the decision to prosecute: an applied approach against confirmation bias in criminal prosecution

Abstract

In many legal systems, preliminary proceedings and the prosecutor's charging decision predict the outcome of the trial, as reflected in high conviction rates. This charging decision is mostly based on the final police report, which is primarily aimed to substantiate the given suspicion and may lead to a preponderance of incriminating evidence. We investigated if a written statement by the defense (an alternative story) can balance out this information disparity and can alter the charging decision. Building on classical debiasing methods, the Story Model and narrative persuasion, we hypothesized that an alternative story reduces the likelihood of being charged, because the police report becomes less unique. Participants of three experiments (criminal-law students, N = 684) received either only the police report, or the police report plus an alternative story (vs. a statement merely claiming innocence) and were asked to make charging decisions. The presence of prior conviction evidence (PCE) was varied. Results show that 1) an alternative story reduces (and PCE increases) the likelihood of being charged, 2) a statement merely claiming innocence is less but still effective, and 3) PCE effects were small and inconsistent. Underlying mechanisms, implications for criminal procedural law, and applicability to adversarial systems are discussed.

Psychological assumptions underlying credibility assessments in Finnish asylum determinations

“…Decision-makers should explicitly write down all arguments with clear references to the evidence and systematically seek CREDIBILITY ASSESSMENTS IN ASLYUM CASES 27 alternative explanations to all findings by actively considering the opposite (e.g., Hirt & Markman, 1995;O'Brien, 2009). Other debiasing methods worth exploring include alternative stories or systematic tools such as checklists (Schmittat et al, 2022;Sibbald et al, 2013). These measures could minimize the effect of bias and subjective assumptions on the decision-making.…”

The Effect of Suspect Description and Possible Motive on Forming Suspicion During Pre-trial Investigation: A Comparison of Police Officers and Students Groups

“…Pareigūnų sprendimų priėmimo ypatumai ikiteisminio tyrimo metu tiriami vykdant įtariamojo apklausą (Noriega 2020;Lidén, Gräns, Juslin 2018;Hill, Memon, McGeorge 2008), parenkant tolesnius baudžiamojo proceso veiksmus (O'Brien 2009;Van den Eeden, de Poot, van Koppen 2019). Tyrimuose įprastai formuojama išankstinė nuomonė apie įtariamojo kaltės aspektą pateikiant duomenis, preziumuojančius, kad įtariamasis įvykdė nusikalstamą veiką (Marksteiner et al 2011;Rassin, Eerland, Kuijpers 2010;Ask, Rebelius, Granhag 2008) ir galimą motyvą (Ask, Granhag 2005;Schmittat et al 2021). Psichologiniuose tyrimuose tendencingai vykdomas nusikalstamos veikos tyrimas ir išreiškiamas įtarimas dažnai siejami būtent su patvirtinimo šališkumo pasireiškimu (Ask, Granhag 2005;O'Brien 2009).…”