Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou's [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839-874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates. We propose a transitional probability model of finding employment or staying on employment as a means to take into account issues arising from sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. Being state dependent, employment or nonemployment, a transition probability model accommodates dynamics in a simple format. We estimate our transitional probability model under the assumptions of (1) conditional independence (CIA) (namely, participation in JSS can be considered exogenous conditional on the confounding variables) and (2) no individual-specific effects. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou's (2000) conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. HHS Public AccessAuthor manuscript J Econom. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2015 June 04.We find that only the first Job Search Services had positive and statistically significant impacts on employment rates. The probabilities of employment are increased by about 3.6% for the non-employed and by 3.4% for the employed. Repeating JSS does not appear to raise the probability of employment. We also find that each additional quarter of non-employment reduces the probability of employment by 2.9% and each additional quarter of employment raises the probability of employment by 2.3%. The "experience-enhancing" effect together with the finding that the first JSS does raise the probability of employme...

show abstract

“…Page 5 Rubin, 1983) or Ignorable Treatment Assignment Assumption (Heckman and Robb, 1985;Holland, 1986)), 2…”

Section: Hsiao Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

“…see the survey of Friedlander et al (1997)). The measurements may be subject to various selection bias (e.g., Angrist et al (1996), Heckman and Robb (1985), and Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983)). With panel data outcomes of the same individual before and after the treatment could be observed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients

Hsiao

Shen

Wang

et al. 2008

Journal of Econometrics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…10 There are different restrictions (e.g. Angrist and Imbens, 1991, Imbens and Angrist, 1994, Heckman and Hotz, 1989, Heckman and Robb, 1985 available to solve the identification problem, but this one appears to be the most fundamental in its close resemblance of the experimental context, and, given the data available and the nature of the objective pursued here, it is best suited for this context.…”

Section: Causality Potential Outcomes Identification and Balancingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various model-based procedures are suggested in the econometrics' literature to avoid such biases (see for example Hotz, 1989, or Heckman andRobb, 1985). 2 However, Ashenfelter and Card (1985) and LaLonde (1986) -among others -conclude that the results are highly sensitive to the different stochastic assumptions made about the selection process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany

Lechner

2000

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…As already noted by Heckman and Robb (1985) and Ahn and Powell (1993) in single-index selection models the selectivity bias can be expressed as the probability of selection given covariates.…”

Section: Schooling Probabilities As Su Cient Statistics In Single Andmentioning

confidence: 91%

Does Risk Matter? A Semiparametric Model for Educational Choices in the Presence of Uncertainty

Mazza

2011

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard human capital theory suggests that individuals select into education in order to maximize their utility. If agents are risk averse, they select the educational level that minimizes future uncertainty. The possibility of self-selection complicates the identi cation of the causal contribution of education to uncertainty in future payo s. In this paper the assumption of endogenous school choices due to concerns about future risk is tested and the importance of uncertainty in shaping schooling choices is assessed. Relying on a exible semiparametric procedure allowing for self selection, bounds for the e ect of eld of study in college on uncertainty are estimated and, in a second stage, exploited for modeling schooling choices. The results of the empirical investigation do con rm that individuals self-select into education in order to minimize uncertainty and maximize returns. Only selection of Humanities type of majors is una ected by risk or expected returns.

show abstract

Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions

Cited by 775 publications

References 11 publications

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients

An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany

Does Risk Matter? A Semiparametric Model for Educational Choices in the Presence of Uncertainty

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About