Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power

Walt, Stephen M.

doi:10.2307/2538540

Cited by 510 publications

(253 citation statements)

References 73 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

202

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…These help display the essential features of the data and methods but do not attempt to address every sophisticated substantive argument in the literature. For a sampling of studies on intekmtional alliances, see singer and Small (1968) Wallace (1973), McGowan and Rood (1975), Siverson and Tennefoss (1984) McDonald and Rosecrance (1985), and Walt (1985).…”

Section: Hurdle Modes Of Instability and International Alliancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications

King¹

1989

International Studies Quarterly

175

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

International relations theorists tend to think in terms of continuous processes. Yet we observe only discrete events, such as wars or alliances, and summarize them in terms of the frequency of occurrence. As such, most empirical analyses in international relations are based on event count variables. Unfortunately, analysts have generally relied on statistical techniques that were designed for continuous data. This mismatch between theory and method has caused bias, inefficiency, and numerous inconsistencies in both theoretical arguments and empirical findings throughout the literature. This article develops a much more powerful approach to modeling and statistical analysis based explicitly on estimating continuous processes from observed event counts. T o demonstrate this class of models, I present several new statistical techniques developed for and applied to different areas of international relations. These include the influence of international alliances on the outbreak of war, the contagious process of multilateral economic sanctions, and reciprocity in superpower conflict. I also show how one can extract considerably more information from existing data and relate substantive theory to empirical analyses more explicitly with this approach. IntroductionWhereas most theories in the social sciences attempt to explain underlying continuous processes, we generally observe only finite numbers of discrete events. Bertram M. Gross writes: "[Tlhe world or my part of it is seen as an ongoing stream of events in time . . . Facts and process are separated into discrete elements only by human analysis . . . Change-whether rapid or slow, hidden or open-is continuous" (Gross, 1968:262). For example, influence among political actors, the continuing allocation of resources, constituency representation, and other aspects of politics can all be described as unobserved continuous processes that generate observed discrete events. A legislator probably represents constituents in varying degrees continually in all aspects of his or her work, but most observers cannot record much more than roll call votes and compare them to occasional polls of constituent opinion. The constant trade flows between nations are important features of economic cooperation, but an Authur'c S u t p : h1) thanks to,Jim Alt, Bill Brunclage, Kancy Burns,,John Freeman, Kelsuke Iicla, Lisa Martin, and Bob Powell for helpful comments and discussions, and to Lisa Martin for her data on economic sanctions. An earlier \ersion of this paper. was presented on a panel at the 1988 Midwest Political Science ..\ssociation meetings; I appreciate the suggestions from participants at that panel, particularl) J o h n hldl-ich and Dan \Vood. Thanhs also to the National Science Foundation for research support (KSF #SES-87-22715). 1989 International Studies Association 124Event Count L\40dels fo7 Inte7natzoizal Relatzons analyst might only have a list of major treaties or quarterly summaries of economic activities. In the U.S., presidential-congressional relations continuou...

show abstract

Section: Hurdle Modes Of Instability and International Alliancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications

King¹

1989

International Studies Quarterly

175

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…First, as mentioned above, states may disregard power imbalances because they do not actually feel threatened by superior states (Walt 1985). Since "threat," or presumed hostility, is strongly connected to the policies that a government pursues rather than just the tools that it has at its disposal, its source 3 The option of "buck passing" was not part of Waltz's original portfolio of strategies but has since entered the realist canon; see Posen (1984) for its first introduction and Mearsheimer (2002: 160-162) for a discussion of its position within the broader theoretical framework.…”

Section: Theoretical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

What drives interstate balancing? Estimations of domestic and systemic factors

Abb

2018

Int Polit

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper reviews contending realist assumptions about domestic and systemic impulses for balancing behavior, derives a set of corresponding hypotheses for state actions and submits them to a statistical large-n analysis for testing. A total of 18 highly conflict-prone dyads of states are observed over lengthy periods of time in order to gather data for a regression analysis of the effects of different impulses on both the external and internal balancing behavior of the weaker states. In accordance with the results, it is argued that domestic (or unit-level) factors are highly important in explaining the scope of balancing and often exert a stronger influence than do power gaps between states. As moderating factors, they are especially crucial in clarifying apparent cases of over-and underbalancing.

show abstract

“…Para os primeiros, variáveis relacionadas a correlações de forças materiais são preponderantes para o padrão de inserção e de interação dos Estados no sistema internacional, já que a estrutura se regula por uma espécie de equilíbrio de poder que impõe limites para as manobras dos entes estatais (WALT, 1985). Assim, quanto mais centralizado for o núcleo decisório, quanto mais ele for baseado em critérios técnicos e isolado de fatores políticos domésticos, mais racional será a decisão tomada.…”

Section: A Figura Do Presidente Da República E Do Chanceler Na Pebunclassified

Temas de Relações Internacionais nos discursos de posse de presidentes e de chanceleres brasileiros (1995-2017)

Rocha

2017

Rev. Carta Inter.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ResumoO artigo investiga as ênfases temáticas de presidentes e de chanceleres brasileiros durante os seus pronunciamentos de posse. O objetivo principal é saber se tais atores políticos tenderam a manter um padrão de continuidade no que tange à priorização de temas e categorias ou se os mesmos tendem a minimizar e maximizar citações de forma específica e particular. Para verificar isso, técnicas de análise de conteúdo e de mineração textual foram empregadas. Através delas, constatou-se a existência de uma continuidade, no sentido de que há categorias que são constantes na sua insignificância, independente do ator. Há também categorias que, via de regra, são mencionadas repetidamente em todos os pronunciamentos. Ademais, ao considerar medidas associativas e de distâncias de palavras, foi possível agrupar os atores em níveis de proximidade. Nesse aspecto, é visível um agrupamento muito coeso entre os chanceleres, ao passo que os presidentes tendem a se localizar de forma mais esparsa.Palavras-chave: Agenda de Políticas; Diplomacia Presidencial; Ministro de Relações Exteriores, Política Externa Brasileira; Análise de Conteúdo. AbstractIn this paper, I question the thematic emphasis of Brazilian Presidents and Chancellors during their inauguration speeches. The main objective is to know if the actors maintain a pattern of continuity when it comes to the prioritization of topics and categories or if they tend to 1 O presente trabalho foi realizado com apoio do CNPq, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico -Brasil.

show abstract

Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power

Cited by 510 publications

References 73 publications

Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications

Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications

What drives interstate balancing? Estimations of domestic and systemic factors

Temas de Relações Internacionais nos discursos de posse de presidentes e de chanceleres brasileiros (1995-2017)

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About