All that glitters is not gold: the case of calibrating hydrological models

Andréassian, Vazken; Moine, Nicolás Le; Perrin, Charles; Ramos, Maria‐Helena; Oudin, Ludovic; Mathevet, Thibault; Lerat, Julien; Berthet, Lionel

doi:10.1002/hyp.9264

Cited by 91 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Although these models require profile data, long data series of profile data are still rare and satellite measurements can be useful to provide long-term data for the study at hand. The value of the calibration parameters depends on the available data (Andréassian et al, 2012;Prats and Danis, 2017) and it is interesting to test the long-term performance of a model, especially if it will be used to predict the effects of climate change or similar long-term effects. Satellite measurements have been used to assess the long-term performance of a hydrodynamic model of the reservoir of Bimont (Prats et al, 2018b).…”

Section: Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

LakeSST: Lake Skin Surface Temperature in French inland water bodies for 1999–2016 from Landsat archives

Prats¹,

Reynaud²,

Rebière³

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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Abstract. The spatial and temporal coverage of the Landsat satellite imagery make it an ideal resource for the monitoring of water temperature over large territories at a moderate spatial and temporal scale at a low cost. We used Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 archive images to create the Lake Skin Surface Temperature (LakeSST) data set, which contains skin water surface temperature data for 442 French water bodies (natural lakes, reservoirs, ponds, gravel pit lakes and quarry lakes) for the period 1999-2016. We assessed the quality of the satellite temperature measurements by comparing them to in situ measurements and taking into account the cool skin and warm layer effects. To estimate these effects and to investigate the theoretical differences between the freshwater and seawater cases, we adapted the COARE 3.0 algorithm to the freshwater environment. We also estimated the warm layer effect using in situ data. At the reservoir of Bimont, the estimated cool skin effect was about −0.3 and −0.6 • C most of time, while the warm layer effect at 0.55 m was negligible on average, but could occasionally attain several degrees, and a cool layer was often observed in the night. The overall RMSE of the satellite-derived temperature measurements was about 1.2 • C, similar to other applications of satellite images to estimate freshwater surface temperatures. The LakeSST data can be used for studies on the temporal evolution of lake water temperature and for geographical studies of temperature patterns. The LakeSST data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1193745.

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Section: Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

LakeSST: Lake Skin Surface Temperature in French inland water bodies for 1999–2016 from Landsat archives

Prats¹,

Reynaud²,

Rebière³

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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“…Although the calibrated models may then adequately reproduce the output variable, model equifinality (e.g. Savenije, 2001) will lead to many apparently feasible solutions that do not sufficiently well reproduce system-internal dynamics as they are mere artefacts of the mathematical optimization process rather than suitable representations of reality (Gharari et al, 2013;Hrachowitz et al, 2013b;Andréassian et al, 2012;Beven, 2006;Kirchner, 2006). The realisation that there is a need for multivariable and multiobjective model evaluation strategies to identify and discard solutions that do not satisfy all evaluation criteria applied is therefore gaining ground (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological hysteresis and its value for assessing process consistency in catchment conceptual models

Fovet

Ruiz

Hrachowitz

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system-internal processes. In particular, the relationship between storage and discharge, which often follows annual hysteretic patterns in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely considered in modelling studies. One main reason is that catchment storage is difficult to measure, and another one is that objective functions are usually based on individual variables time series (e.g. the discharge). This reduces the ability of classical procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypotheses associated with models.We analysed the annual hysteric patterns observed between stream flow and water storage both in the saturated and unsaturated zones of the hillslope and the riparian zone of a headwater catchment in French Brittany (Environmental Research Observatory ERO AgrHys (ORE AgrHys)). The saturated-zone storage was estimated using distributed shallow groundwater levels and the unsaturated-zone storage using several moisture profiles. All hysteretic loops were characterized by a hysteresis index. Four conceptual models, previously calibrated and evaluated for the same catchment, were assessed with respect to their ability to reproduce the hysteretic patterns.The observed relationship between stream flow and saturated, and unsaturated storages led us to identify four hydrological periods and emphasized a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters. Although all the tested models were able to produce an annual hysteresis loop between discharge and both saturated and unsaturated storage, the integration of a riparian component led to overall improved hysteretic signatures, even if some misrepresentation remained. Such a system-like approach is likely to improve model selection.

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“…Model performance depends on the characteristics of the calibration period (Van Straten and Keesman, 1991;Andréassian et al, 2012). Long term satellite data showed the long-term stability of the simulation performance (Fig.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Model Performancementioning

confidence: 98%

Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

Prats¹,

Salençon²,

Gant³

et al. 2017

J Limnol

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One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France) in the medium term and in the long term (2066-2095) using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect of the use of synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C) average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%). To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i) bottom outlet and present water level; ii) bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii) surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024°C·yr -1 , but a rapid hypolimnion warming of 0.013-0.028°C·yr -1 . The increase in surface temperatures will augment evaporation. However, the length of the stratification period and the thermocline depth are not expected to change. Elevating the water level and using a surface outlet in the reservoir of Bimont, would result in reductions of surface temperature of a similar magnitude as the expected increase because of climate change.

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All that glitters is not gold: the case of calibrating hydrological models

Cited by 91 publications

References 33 publications

LakeSST: Lake Skin Surface Temperature in French inland water bodies for 1999–2016 from Landsat archives

LakeSST: Lake Skin Surface Temperature in French inland water bodies for 1999–2016 from Landsat archives

Hydrological hysteresis and its value for assessing process consistency in catchment conceptual models

Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

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