All roads lead to Iran: Predicting landscape connectivity of the last stronghold for the critically endangered Asiatic cheetah

Abstract

Effective conservation solutions for small and isolated wildlife populations depend on identifying and preserving critical biological corridors and dispersal routes. With a worldwide population of ≤70 individuals, the critically endangered Asiatic cheetah Acinonyx jubatus venaticus persists in several fragmented nuclei in Iran. Connectivity between nuclei is crucial for the survival of this subspecies, but detailed information to guide conservation actions is lacking. We developed a resistance surface that predicted cost of cheetah movement as functions of topographical complexity, human development, surface water and landscape protection level. We predicted alternative models for the landscape connectivity of Asiatic cheetahs, considering the combination of relative landscape resistance and different dispersal ability scenarios. We predicted that core connected habitat patches are concentrated in three sub-regions, and within these sub-regions, populations were predicted to be broken up into two to eight isolated patches, depending on the dispersal ability scenario. Despite the achievements of recent conservation initiatives, long-term survival of the Asiatic cheetah in Iran is threatened by the combination of its small population size and fragmented distribution. We propose that conservation of the Asiatic cheetah urgently requires integrated landscape-level management to reduce mortality risk, protect core areas and corridors, and ultimately establish steppingstone populations to integrate this fragmented population.

Multispecies assessment of core areas and connectivity of desert carnivores in central Iran

“…Most protected areas in Iran are surrounded by roads, and road mortalities are a serious threat for carnivores (Farhadinia et al., ). As suggested by Kramer‐Schadt, Revilla, Wiegand, and Breitenmoser () and Moqanaki and Cushman (), although most core patches may be potentially interconnected by dispersal (such as present study), when realistic mortality risks due to road accident and other sources of mortality are considered, most patches become functionally isolated. We identified locations where primary and secondary roads cross the predicted corridor paths between the core patches.…”

“…() and Moqanaki and Cushman (), who found that protected area status is the most important predictor of the occurrence and dispersal of African lions and Asiatic cheetah, respectively. Moqanaki and Cushman () also found corridors with high predicted connectivity rate between Abbasabad, Siyah‐Kooh and Kooh‐Bozorgi for cheetah, which are consistent with our results.…”

“…Dispersal ability often has a larger impact on connectivity than relative landscape resistance (e.g., Hand, Cushman, Landguth, & Lucotch, ; Moqanaki & Cushman, ). Our findings revealed that using patch quality can better show the effect of dispersal ability of the species on the importance of patches for maintaining landscape connectivity.…”

“…Large towns exist only on the western and central part of the study area. Paved roads are one of the most impactful fragmenting features in this landscape (Moqanaki & Cushman, 2016…”

Combining landscape suitability and habitat connectivity to conserve the last surviving population of cheetah in Asia

“…Similar to the critically endangered Saharan cheetah (A. j. hecki), also living in desert habitats, the Asiatic cheetah is wide ranging and occurs at very low density compared to cheetahs in more productive habitats (Belbachir, Pettorelli, Wacher, Belbachir-Bazi, & Durant, 2015;Farhadinia et al, 2013). Although the Asiatic cheetah has been regularly reported from a number of protected areas scattered across central Iran (Hunter et al, 2007;Moqanaki & Cushman, 2016), it does not seem to be confined to these sites and has been documented to move long distances, over large stretches of deserts between distant areas (Farhadinia et al, 2013). Overall, habitat suitability criteria for the Asiatic cheetah are poorly understood, and as a corollary, the extent of environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors affecting the connectivity within this habitat and the proportion of suitable habitat receiving some level of protection are unknown.…”