Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.population viability analysis | threat assessment | protected areas | landscape conservation | megafauna T he spread and dominance of humans across the world during the Anthropocene have precipitated a sixth global biodiversity extinction crisis (1). To maximize biodiversity retention through this period of rapid change, scarce conservation resources need to be targeted toward species and ecosystems that are most Significance Here, we compile and present the most comprehensive data available on cheetah distribution and status. Our analysis shows dramatic declines of cheetah across its distributional range. Most cheetah occur outside protected areas, where they are exposed to multiple threats, but there is little information on population status. Simulation modeling shows that, where cheetah population growth rates are suppressed outside protected areas, extinction risk increases markedly. This result can be generalized to other "protection-reliant" species, and a decision tree is provided to improve their extinction risk estimation. Ultimately, the persistence of protection-reliant species depends on their survival outside and inside protected areas and requires a holistic approach to conservation that engages rather than alienates local communities.

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The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000–12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000–67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700–44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70–110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity.

Aim The Asiatic cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, a critically endangered large felid, has disappeared from vast tracks of its historical range across south‐western Asia. It is currently confined to the arid ecosystems of central Iran for which little is known about its distribution and habitat linkages. We proposed the first evaluation of Asiatic cheetah's distribution and developed models of landscape suitability and connectivity to inform future conservation planning. Location Central Iran. Methods We analysed presence data of a 14‐year‐long cheetah monitoring programme according to environmental and anthropogenic factors, and generated an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on seven species distribution models (SDMs). We then used the concept of circuit theory and landscape connectivity prioritization (LCP) on resultant core habitats and landscape suitability to evaluate potential linkages between core areas. Results Core habitats, that is, the areas hosting the largest continuous suitable habitats for Asiatic cheetahs, covered approximately 49,144 km2 (c. 6.3% of the study area). Availability of prey species, avoidance of human‐dominated areas and their infrastructures, and rough landscapes covered with sparse vegetation were the most predictive factors of the core habitats for the last cheetah population in Asia. Although relatively vast, the area of potential core habitats available to cheetahs appeared to be fragmented with limited connectivity between the northern and southern parts of this distribution. Main conclusions Our approach highlights the importance of distribution models to recognize, at a coarse‐scale level, a spatial population structure and habitat suitability characteristics for a large carnivore surviving at very low density. We have identified specific areas of suitable habitat where developing new landscape protection and adaptive conservation management; and improving the safety of important linkages between core habitats are likely to promote the conservation of the last surviving population of cheetah in Asia.

Context With accelerating global declines in biodiversity, establishment and expansion of conservation areas (CAs) have increasingly been advocated in recent decades. Gap analysis has been useful to evaluate the sufficiency and performance of CAs. Objectives Researchers often identify putative gaps in the protection of biodiversity in CA networks, drawing on evidence from species occurrence patterns (i.e., representation), yet the effect on the gap analyses of the spatial configuration of CAs is poorly understood. Methods Focusing on two large, charismatic carnivores of western Asia, Persian leopard and Asiatic cheetah, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to map potentially suitable habitats throughout the region. We calculated species representation for four categories of CAs within the conservation network in Iran and used a new application of graph theory to include their spatial configuration into our gap analysis. We then regressed species representation against spatial configuration to provide more insights into the performance of different categories of CAs. Results Results showed that the existing CA network conserves only 32% of the suitable habitats for the two species. Leveraging spatial configuration of the conservation areas into the gap analysis, however, revealed that the recentlyestablished less strictly CAs disproportionately provide a higher contribution to the collective effectiveness of the entire conservation network. Conclusions We introduce network bias as a new concept in reserve design and argue that incorporating spatial configuration into CA gap analysis improves the ability Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporationto evaluate the effectiveness of reserve network designs, and is an important decision support tool for integrated conservation planning. Response to Reviewers:Reviewer 1: Overall, it is a nicely written paper, which investigate the distribution range of two species of conservation importance in Iran and also the importance of existing conservation areas in providing structural connectivity among the species' core habitats. I have a few major concerns with the analysis used in the methods that authors should address before the manuscript being accepted.*Response: We are glad the reviewer thought the paper addressed an important and novel topic and appreciate the positive feedback on its overall presentation. KeywordsThe list of keywords is not fit to the paper and aims. Please re-write the keywords based on the aims and findings. Also write "species distribution models" instead of SDM. *Response: Done. We changed the keywords and wrote species distribution models instead of SDM. It is worth mentioning that we tried to not use keywords from the title of the manuscript. L28: As you know, PAs in Iran are classified into five main groups (i.e. national parks, wildlife refuges, protected areas, natural monuments, and no-hunting area). One of these classes are protected areas. So, I thinks that authors use a better title for overall ...