Algorithmically deconstructing shot locations as a method for shot quality in hockey

Abstract

Spatial point processes have been successfully used to model the relative efficiency of shot locations for each player in professional basketball games. Those analyses were possible because each player makes enough baskets to reliably fit a point process model. Goals in hockey are rare enough that a point process cannot be fit to each player’s goal locations, so novel techniques are needed to obtain measures of shot efficiency for each player. A Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) is used to model all shot locations, including goals, of each NHL player who took at least 500 shots during the 2011–2018 seasons. Each player’s LGCP surface is treated as an image and these images are then used in an unsupervised statistical learning algorithm that decomposes the pictures into a linear combination of spatial basis functions. The coefficients of these basis functions are shown to be a very useful tool to compare players. To incorporate goals, the locations of all shots that resulted in a goal are treated as a “perfect player” and used in the same algorithm (goals are further split into perfect forwards, perfect centres and perfect defence). These perfect players are compared to other players as a measure of shot efficiency. This analysis provides a map of common shooting locations, identifies regions with the most goals relative to the number of shots and demonstrates how each player’s shot location differs from scoring locations.

Live Multiattribute Data Mining and Penalty Decision-Making in Basketball Games Based on the Apriori Algorithm

“…From 2010 to date, researchers have set visual tracking data analysis techniques as a new development goal. However, the application of data mining and analysis techniques in basketball games is still in the exploration and research stage [ 10 ]. Two commonly held views on home-court advantage are also discussed; one view is venue perception, where the home team is more familiar with the venue of the game and can take better advantage of it.…”