Air pollution: Why is public perception so different from reality?

Ozone: Unrealistic Scenarios

“…[The U.S. EPA updated its trend estimates in November 2004 ( U.S. EPA 2004a ) and now believes the decline was even steeper, although these new estimates were obviously not available to Knowlton et al] During 2003 and 2004, the U.S. EPA capped total NO x from coal-fired power plants and industrial boilers at 60% below 2000 levels ( U.S. EPA 1998a , 2004b ). A range of emissions data show the average automobile’s NO x emissions rate declined 4–9% per year between 1995 and 2001, with greater improvements for vehicles up to 4 years old ( Pokharel et al 2003 ; Schwartz 2003 ). Total driving is increasing < 2% per year, resulting in large net NO x declines ( Texas Transportation Institute 2004 ).…”

“…The U.S. EPA’s official VOC inventory understates significantly the gasoline-vehicle contribution to total VOCs ( Watson et al 2001 ). Real-world data show the average automobile’s VOC emission rate is declining 11–15% per year, again much more rapidly than driving is increasing, and with a more rapid decline for recent models ( Pokharel et al 2003 ; Schwartz 2003 ). The U.S. EPA also recently implemented VOC reductions for other sources ( U.S. EPA 1998b , 2002b , 2004e ).…”

Ozone: Unrealistic Scenarios

“…EPA 1998a, 2004b). A range of emissions data show the average automobile’s NO x emissions rate declined 4–9% per year between 1995 and 2001, with greater improvements for vehicles up to 4 years old (Pokharel et al 2003; Schwartz 2003). Total driving is increasing < 2% per year, resulting in large net NO x declines (Texas Transportation Institute 2004).…”

“…The U.S. EPA’s official VOC inventory understates significantly the gasoline-vehicle contribution to total VOCs (Watson et al 2001). Real-world data show the average automobile’s VOC emission rate is declining 11–15% per year, again much more rapidly than driving is increasing, and with a more rapid decline for recent models (Pokharel et al 2003; Schwartz 2003). The U.S. EPA also recently implemented VOC reductions for other sources (U.S.…”

“…For example, a vehicle fleet meeting the U.S. EPA’s “Tier 2” automobile standards, implemented in 2004, on-road diesel standards set for 2007, and off-road diesel standards set for 2010, will emit 90% less NO x and VOCs per mile over their lifetime than the current average vehicle, resulting in huge emissions declines, even with predicted increases in driving (Schwartz 2003; U.S. EPA 2000a, 2000b, 2004c).…”