Agroforestry and reforestation with the Gold Standard-Decision Analysis of a voluntary carbon offset label

Abstract

Voluntary standards can help to ensure the quality of projects eligible for carbon offsetting, i.e., selling carbon certificates. However, in deciding on whether to adopt such standards, the managers of carbon offset projects are faced with uncertainty regarding the costs and risks involved. Decision Analysis provides a helpful set of tools that can support such decisions by forecasting outcomes under different scenarios. We applied Decision Analysis methods to generate models for the decisions to certify two projects in Costa Rica with the voluntary carbon offset label “The Gold Standard”. We evaluated certifying an additional site of a partially certified reforestation project, as well as the initial certification of an agroforestry project.We calibrated and interviewed decision-makers and stakeholders of the certification projects to identify important parameters and translate these into a decision model. We ran the final decision model as a Monte Carlo simulation to project plausible ranges of decision outcomes, expressed as Net Present Values and annual cash flows. We identified critical uncertainties and research priorities by using the Expected Value of Perfect Information. The results indicate that certification of the two projects would result in a positive Net Present Value. The partially low return on investment of the certification, however, shows the need for projects to undergo thorough evaluation and generate customized strategies before participating in a voluntary carbon offset scheme. The Decision Analysis approaches we describe can help to improve the process of decision making under uncertainty and should be widely adopted for evaluating the potential impacts of certification.

Carbon sequestration and credit potential of gamhar (Gmelina arborea Roxb.) based agroforestry system for zero carbon emission of India

“…The height, diameter, basal area and volume of Gamhar after completing 12 years was lower under sole plantation compared to agri-silvicultural system 16 . Similar results have also been confirmed by 17 observed that the cash flow analysis of the carbon trading neutral products reported substantial initial investments during the first 3 years of the project, while benefits are obtained after completing 4 years. Kumar et al 18 reported that the total tree biomass (3.707 t ha −1 ), carbon stock (1.597 t ha −1 ), carbon sequestration (5.862 t ha −1 ), carbon credit (5.86) and carbon price ($ 103.76) respectively were estimated at the age of two years of poplar tree-based agroforestry system.…”

Emission, sequestration, credit and trading of carbon under gamhar (Gmelina arborea Roxb.) based agroforestry system towards net zero carbon emission of India

“…The height, diameter, basal area and volume of Gamhar after completing 12 year was lower under sole plantation compared to agri-silvicultural system 32 . Similar results have also been con rmed by 33 observed that the cash ow analysis of the carbon trading neutral products reported substantial initial investments during the rst 3 years of the project, while bene ts are obtained after completing 4 year. 34 reported that the total tree biomass (3.707 t ha − 1 ), carbon stock (1.597 t ha − 1 ), carbon sequestration (5.862 t ha − 1 ), carbon credit (5.86) and carbon price ($ 103.76) respectively were estimated at the age of two years of poplar tree based agroforestry system.…”

Shaping India's climate future: A perspective on harnessing carbon credits from agriculture

“…It would ensure the standardized quality of carbon credits, market credibility, and buyer confidence (Ziegler, 2023). Further, it would check for overinflated emission baselines and dubious carbon credits (Netter et al, 2022), as noted in an article by West et al (2020) about worthless rainforest REDD + carbon credits.…”