Agro-Ecological Class Stability Decreases in Response to Climate Change Projections for the Pacific Northwest, USA

Kaur, Harsimran; Huggins, David R.; Rupp, Richard; Abatzoglou, John T.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Reganold, John P.

doi:10.3389/fevo.2017.00074

Cited by 28 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…Another significant concern is that climate change may cause farmers to increase fallowing as a risk mitigation strategy in the dryland crop production areas of the inland Northwest. This could threaten decades of progress made in reducing soil erosion, and make maintaining SOC more challenging (Kaur et al, 2017;Morrow et al, 2017). Similarly, some strategies to limit emissions of N 2 O could increase losses of nitrogen as ammonia or nitrate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By later in the century, projected further annual average warming of up to 3.3-4.4 • C (6-8 • F) in a high emission scenario may overwhelm the positive yield impacts of CO 2 fertilization by accelerating wheat senescence, reducing grain-filling, and grain shriveling (Ferris et al, 1998;Ortiz et al, 2008;Stöckle et al, 2010;Cammarano et al, 2016). Some recent research also indicates that warmer, drier summers may lead to increased fallowing throughout this century for rainfed areas that are currently cropped on an annual basis (Kaur et al, 2017). This could reduce overall yields, accelerate erosion, and decrease carbon sequestration compared to current conditions, increasing sustainability challenges.…”

Section: Cropping Systems In a Changing Climate Climate Impacts And Vmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

Yorgey

Hall

Allen

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on "win-win" management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled "Agriculture in a Changing Climate," that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next 5 years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1) cropping systems, (2) livestock systems, (3) decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4) partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge Yorgey et al.Priorities for U.S. Northwest Agriculture in a Changing Climate gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight the need for ongoing investment in interdisciplinary research integrating social, economic, and biophysical sciences, strategic collaborations, and knowledge sharing to develop actionable science that can support informed decision-making in the agriculture sector as the climate changes.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cropping Systems In a Changing Climate Climate Impacts And Vmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

Yorgey

Hall

Allen

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…For example, future systems that encourage greater water infiltration and soil water storage combined with greater frequency of rotational winter crops that feature earlier flowering and grain development will help farmers adapt to the projected hotter, drier summers (Kaur et al, 2017).…”

Section: Biophysical Drivers Of Ipnw Alternative Cropping Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

Pan

Schillinger

Young

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Climate-friendly best management practices for mitigating and adapting to climate change (cfBMPs) include changes in crop rotation, soil management and resource use. Determined largely by precipitation gradients, specific agroecological systems in the inland Pacific Northwestern U.S. (iPNW) feature different practices across the region. Historically, these farming systems have been economically productive, but at the cost of high soil erosion rates and organic matter depletion, making them win-lose situations. Agronomic, sociological, political and economic drivers all influence cropping system innovations. Integrated, holistic conservation systems also need to be identified to address climate change by integrating cfBMPs that provide win-win benefits for farmer and environment. We conclude that systems featuring short-term improvements in farm economics, market diversification, resource efficiency and soil health will be most readily adopted by farmers, thereby simultaneously addressing longer term challenges including climate change. Specific "win-win scenarios" are designed for different iPNW production zones delineated by water availability. The cfBMPs include reduced tillage and residue management, organic carbon (C) recycling, precision nitrogen (N) management and crop rotation diversification and intensification. Current plant breeding technologies have provided new cultivars of canola and pea that can diversify system agronomics Pan et al.Win-Win Scenarios for Farm and Climate and markets. These agronomic improvements require associated shifts in prescriptive, precision N and weed management. The integrated cfBMP systems we describe have the potential for reducing system-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by increasing soil C storage, N use efficiency (NUE) and by production of biofuels. Novel systems, even if they are economically competitive, can come with increased financial risk to producers, necessitating government support (e.g., subsidized crop insurance) to promote adoption. Other conservation-and climate change-targeted farm policies can also improve adoption. Ultimately, farmers must meet their economic and legacy goals to assure longer-term adoption of mature cfBMP for iPNW production systems.

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“…Based on model projections, other dynamic AECs (e.g., dynamic annual crop-fallow or dynamic grain-fallow) may increase (~60%) and result in more fallow management practice under future climate scenarios, although the counteracting effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration was not accounted for in their study (Kaur et al, 2017). On the other hand, climate change is predicted to have negative effects on soil health characteristics in the iPNW region (Morrow et al, 2017), which may directly affect carbon and water dynamics.…”

Section: Climatic Condition Effects and Climate Change Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climatic conditions and agricultural management practices affect agricultural carbon and water cycles in the U.S. Lal et al, 1999;Olander et al, 2011). Current climatic conditions and futureprocesses such as respiration (Lloyd & Taylor, 1994) and indirect impacts include changes in management decisions such as crop rotations and use of fallow (Kaur et al, 2017). Agricultural management practices, such as tillage, can affect carbon and water dynamics by changing crop performance and altering soil aggregation structure, surface residue cover, soil bulk density, and soil water retention capacity (Feiziene et al, 2011;Regina & Alakukku, 2010;Van Wie, Adam, & Ullman, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

et al. 2017

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Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long‐term effects of these environmental drivers and farming activities on carbon and water dynamics. Twenty site‐years of carbon and water fluxes covering a large precipitation gradient and a variety of crop species and management practices were measured in the inland Pacific Northwest using the eddy covariance method. The rain‐fed fields were net carbon sinks, while the irrigated site was close to carbon neutral during the winter wheat crop years. Sites growing spring crops were either carbon sinks, sources, or neutral, varying with crops, rainfall zones, and tillage practices. Fluxes were more sensitive to variability in precipitation than temperature: annual carbon and water fluxes increased with the increasing precipitation while only respiration increased with temperature in the high‐rainfall area. Compared to a nearby rain‐fed site, irrigation improved winter wheat production but resulted in large losses of carbon and water to the atmosphere. Compared to conventional tillage, no‐till had significantly lower respiration but resulted in slightly lower yields and water use efficiency over 4 years. Under future climate change, it is expected that more carbon fixation by crops and evapotranspiration would occur in a warmer and wetter environment.

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Agro-Ecological Class Stability Decreases in Response to Climate Change Projections for the Pacific Northwest, USA

Cited by 28 publications

References 75 publications

Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

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