Adaptation to a changing climate is critical to address future global food and water security challenges. While these challenges are global, successful adaptation strategies are often generated at regional scales; therefore, regional‐scale studies are critical to inform adaptation decision making. While climate change affects both water supply and demand, water demand is relatively understudied, especially at regional scales. The goal of this work is to address this gap, and characterize the direct impacts of near‐term (for the 2030s) climate change and elevated CO2 levels on regional‐scale crop yields and irrigation demands for the Columbia River basin (CRB). This question is addressed through a coupled crop‐hydrology model that accounts for site‐specific and crop‐specific characteristics that control regional‐scale response to climate change. The overall near‐term outlook for agricultural production in the CRB is largely positive, with yield increases for most crops and small overall increases in irrigation demand. However, there are crop‐specific and location‐specific negative impacts as well, and the aggregate regional response of irrigation demands to climate change is highly sensitive to the spatial crop mix. Low‐value pasture/hay varieties of crops—typically not considered in climate change assessments—play a significant role in determining the regional response of irrigation demands to climate change, and thus cannot be overlooked. While, the overall near‐term outlook for agriculture in the region is largely positive, there may be potential for a negative outlook further into the future, and it is important to consider this in long‐term planning.
As managers of agricultural and natural resources are confronted with uncertainties in global change impacts, the complexities associated with the interconnected cycling of nitrogen, carbon, and water present daunting management challenges. Existing models provide detailed information on specific sub-systems (e.g., land, air, water, and economics). An increasing awareness of the unintended consequences of management decisions resulting from interconnectedness of these sub-systems, however, necessitates coupled regional earth system models (EaSMs). Decision makers' needs and priorities can be integrated into the model design and development processes to enhance decision-making relevance and "usability" of EaSMs. BioEarth is a research initiative currently under development with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest region that explores the coupling of multiple stand-alone EaSMs to generate usable information for resource decision-making. Direct engagement between model developers and non-academic stakeholders involved in resource and environmental management decisions throughout the model development process is a critical component of this effort. BioEarth utilizes a bottom-up approach for its land surface model that preserves fine spatialscale sensitivities and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which makes it unique among many regional EaSMs. This paper describes the BioEarth initiative and highlights opportunities and challenges associated with coupling multiple stand-alone models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision-making.
Climate-friendly best management practices for mitigating and adapting to climate change (cfBMPs) include changes in crop rotation, soil management and resource use. Determined largely by precipitation gradients, specific agroecological systems in the inland Pacific Northwestern U.S. (iPNW) feature different practices across the region. Historically, these farming systems have been economically productive, but at the cost of high soil erosion rates and organic matter depletion, making them win-lose situations. Agronomic, sociological, political and economic drivers all influence cropping system innovations. Integrated, holistic conservation systems also need to be identified to address climate change by integrating cfBMPs that provide win-win benefits for farmer and environment. We conclude that systems featuring short-term improvements in farm economics, market diversification, resource efficiency and soil health will be most readily adopted by farmers, thereby simultaneously addressing longer term challenges including climate change. Specific "win-win scenarios" are designed for different iPNW production zones delineated by water availability. The cfBMPs include reduced tillage and residue management, organic carbon (C) recycling, precision nitrogen (N) management and crop rotation diversification and intensification. Current plant breeding technologies have provided new cultivars of canola and pea that can diversify system agronomics Pan et al.Win-Win Scenarios for Farm and Climate and markets. These agronomic improvements require associated shifts in prescriptive, precision N and weed management. The integrated cfBMP systems we describe have the potential for reducing system-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by increasing soil C storage, N use efficiency (NUE) and by production of biofuels. Novel systems, even if they are economically competitive, can come with increased financial risk to producers, necessitating government support (e.g., subsidized crop insurance) to promote adoption. Other conservation-and climate change-targeted farm policies can also improve adoption. Ultimately, farmers must meet their economic and legacy goals to assure longer-term adoption of mature cfBMP for iPNW production systems.
In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on "win-win" management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled "Agriculture in a Changing Climate," that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next 5 years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1) cropping systems, (2) livestock systems, (3) decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4) partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge Yorgey et al.Priorities for U.S. Northwest Agriculture in a Changing Climate gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight the need for ongoing investment in interdisciplinary research integrating social, economic, and biophysical sciences, strategic collaborations, and knowledge sharing to develop actionable science that can support informed decision-making in the agriculture sector as the climate changes.
The use of bio-based fertilizers derived from dairy manure can provide a valuable source of fertility, improve soil health and provide an outlet for manure from dairy operations. We conducted a small-scale discrete choice survey of crop farmers and crop consultants in Washington State to determine the attributes that were important to them in the potential use of a bio-based fertilizer product derived from dairy manure. Of the attributes examined, distribution channel was not statistically significant. Respondents preferred air-dried or pelletized forms to wet forms, though there was no statistically significant difference between air-dried and pelletized forms. As expected, uptake increased as price decreased. Our results imply that respondents would be willing to pay 23 and 39% more for an air-dried or pelletized product, respectively, than for a ‘semi-wet’ product. Our results indicate that there are other important attributes beyond the ones in the survey that led respondents to stay with their current fertilizer regime. Qualitative responses in the survey pointed to the need for field trial results and data on nitrogen release from the bio-based fertilizer. Greater understanding of willingness-to-pay and attributes important to potential end users is important for the development of markets for bio-based fertilizers.
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