Agricultural land-use dynamics: Assessing the relative importance of socioeconomic and biophysical drivers for more targeted policy

Marcos-Martínez, Raymundo; Bryan, Brett A.; Connor, Jeffery D.; King, Darran

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.01.011

Cited by 37 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Frequent periods of policy uncertainty have been shown to increase deforestation in Queensland (Simmons et al 2018b), which could explain the sensitivity of impact estimates during this period. For these years, other unobserved confounders such as additional socio-economic factors, aesthetic values of nature, or shifts in social or cultural norms could also have a significant effect on the impact of the VMA (Kull et al 2007, Seabrook et al 2008, Marcos-Martinez et al 2017.…”

Section: Impact Robustnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot

Simmons

Wilson

Marcos-Martínez

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Recent rates of deforestation on private lands in Australia rival deforestation hotspots around the world, despite conservation policies in place to avert deforestation. This study uses causal impact estimation techniques to determine if a controversial conservation policy-the Vegetation Management Act (VMA)-has successfully reduced deforestation of remnant trees in the Brigalow Belt South, a 21.6 Mha biodiversity hotspot in Queensland. We use covariate matching to determine the regulatory effect of the policy on deforestation rates over time, compared to two counterfactual scenarios representing upper and lower estimates of policy impact. The VMA significantly reduced the rate of remnant deforestation in the highest impact scenario, saving 17, 729±1733 ha during 2000-2016. In the lowest scenario, 'panic clearing' before and after enactment of the VMA minimized the amount of remnant forests saved and may have marginally increased deforestation relative to the counterfactual (−404±617 ha). At peak effectiveness, the VMA successfully counteracted the amount of remnant deforestation during 2010-2012, but this only represents 4.78% of the 371, 252 ha of remnant forests cleared in the bioregion since enactment in 1999. Thus, while deforestation rates in the region have substantially reduced since the policy was enacted, our results of positive yet limited direct regulatory impact suggests the policy's effectiveness is strongly confounded by other deforestation drivers, like changing socio-economic or climate conditions, as well as new social signals provoked by the policy. The mechanisms through which the policy influences deforestation behavior must be further investigated to ensure real, desirable change is achieved.

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Section: Impact Robustnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot

Simmons

Wilson

Marcos-Martínez

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Global population growth, urbanization, changing consumption patterns, and climate change are expected to challenge the ability of terrestrial systems to satisfy the increasing demands for food, energy, and natural resources [1][2][3][4][5]. Land consolidation is considered an instrument or entry point for rural development [6,7] and an important means of improving food production capacity and reconciling land use conflicts [8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Consolidation Design Based on an Evaluation of Ecological Sensitivity

Zhang

2018

Sustainability

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Land consolidation engineering inevitably interferes with terrestrial ecosystems, leading to natural capital loss. Therefore, conducting an ecological sensitivity evaluation of a project area before consolidation engineering is very important for reducing unnecessary human interference. Conservation of terrestrial ecosystems and the biodiversity therein to the greatest possible extent is urgently needed. This research analyzes the interference by human activities caused by land consolidation engineering in terrestrial ecosystems. GIS technology, ecological values, landscape pattern indexes, and an ecological risk evaluation were used to construct an ecological sensitivity evaluation index. The coefficient of variation method and a comprehensive sensitivity rating evaluation were used to calculate the weights and results. The project area was divided into sensitivity zones according to the results, and the results and suggestions are as follows: In the highly eco-sensitive zone, where bare rocks, gravel, and grass-covered areas compose the main landscape type, vegetation should be restored, and forests should be planted. In the medium eco-sensitivity zone, where irrigated paddy fields and arid land compose the main landscape type, land parcels should be merged, and agricultural infrastructure should be constructed or improved. In the low eco-sensitivity zone, where forests compose the main landscape type, roads should be closed, natural habitat should be restored, and buffer zones should be created. This study provides suggestions for future land management decisions.

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“…), Queensland(Evans 2016), agricultural zones of Australia (Marcos-Martinez et al 2017), and global meta-analyses(Busch & Ferretti-Gallon 2017). Dummy variables were incorporated to represent the political factors used in the statistical model: when broad-scale clearing was banned by the Vegetation Management Act(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014), and periods of peak policy uncertainty.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simmons et al 2018c, Chapter 3), which could explain the sensitivity of impact estimates during this period. For these years, other unobserved confounders such as additional socioeconomic factors, aesthetic values of nature, or shifts in social or cultural norms could also have a significant effect on the impact of the VMA(Kull et al 2007;Seabrook et al 2008;Marcos-Martinez et al 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The BBS experienced the greatest rainfall deficit of any bioregion in Queensland during Australia's 'Millennium Drought' of 2001-2009 (van Dijk et al 2013), and annual rainfall patterns have been identified as a significant driver of remnant and non-remnant deforestation in the region (Simmons et al 2018c,Chapter 3). It is likely that this drought was largely responsible for the reduction of absolute deforestation rates during this period by diminishing the economic incentives to clear, which could explain why the VMA was only marginally effective in those years.Characteristics of landholders' clearing patterns during this period have reflected a preference for maximizing quality over quantity(Simmons et al 2018b, Chapter 2), and this may explain the subsequent increase in the quantity of non-remnant deforestation following the end of the drought.These climate restraints could also have flow-on effects on other socioeconomic drivers of deforestation, such as food prices and potential profitability, which can ultimately diminish the direct impact of the VMA (Marcos-Martinez et al 2017;Rhodes et al 2017;Simmons et al 2018c, Chapter 3).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Illuminating the biophysical, political, and cultural dimensions of tree clearing to inform environmental policy

Simmons¹

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Deforestation is a well-recognised global threat to biodiversity and ecosystem function, and the conversion of forests to productive lands is responsible for the majority of world-wide deforestation.These patterns are mirrored in Queensland, Australia, which has exhibited some of the highest deforestation rates around the world in the last three decades. In response, the Queensland government enacted the contentious Vegetation Management Act (VMA) 1999 to regulate the clearing of remnant (i.e. old-growth) trees on private lands across the state. Since its inception, however, the policy has spurred heated debate from the agricultural sector, with landholders arguing its lack of transparency, inconsistency, and ignorance of economic impacts on the agricultural sector. To date, no robust, objective investigations have been made into the direct and indirect roles of the VMA in changing tree clearing behaviours. Yet if we want to develop relevant and effective policy instruments to create sustainable change in tree clearing, it is imperative that these instruments are tailored to reflect the drivers of clearing across all relevant dimensions. In this thesis, I explore the biophysical, political, and cultural dimensions of tree clearing in Queensland to highlight how landholders have responded to policy intervention, uncover the potential perversities of its implementation, quantify its effectiveness, and understand its influence within the cultural landscape of tree clearing. v Publications included in this thesis Simmons BA, Law EA, Marcos-Martinez R, Bryan BA, McAlpine C, Wilson KA. 2018. Spatial and temporal patterns of land clearing during policy change. Land Use Policy 75:399-410.

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Agricultural land-use dynamics: Assessing the relative importance of socioeconomic and biophysical drivers for more targeted policy

Cited by 37 publications

References 68 publications

Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot

Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot

Land Consolidation Design Based on an Evaluation of Ecological Sensitivity

Illuminating the biophysical, political, and cultural dimensions of tree clearing to inform environmental policy

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