Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany

Gutzler, Carsten; Helming, Katharina; Balla, Dagmar; Dannowski, Ralf; Deumlich, Detlef; Glemnitz, Michael; Knierim, Andrea; Mirschel, Wilfried; Nendel, Claas; Paul, Carsten; Sieber, Stefan; Stachow, Ulrich; Starick, Anja; Wieland, Ralf; Wurbs, Angelika; Zander, Peter

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.09.004

Cited by 134 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The increased demand for food, fiber and fuel products has led to a rapid change in land use and to the progressive transformation of traditional agronomic techniques into high-input methods of land-resource exploitation [2,3], with a negative impact on non-renewable natural resources such as soil [4][5][6]. Since the industrial age, increasing pressure on crop production has been observed in developed countries with implications for the ecological sustainability of agricultural systems and the quality of the environment [7][8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fifty-Year Sustainability Assessment of Italian Agro-Forest Districts

et al. 2015

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Abstract:As cropland management and land use shifted towards more intensive practices, global land degradation increased drastically. Understanding relationships between ecological and socioeconomic drivers of soil and landscape degradation within these landscapes in economically dynamic contexts such as the Mediterranean region, requires multi-target and multi-scalar approaches covering long-term periods. This study provides an original approach for identifying desertification risk drivers and sustainable land management strategies within Italian agro-forest districts. An Environmental Sensitivity Area (ESA) approach, based on four thematic indicators (climate, soil, vegetation and land-use) and a composite index of desertification risk (ESAI), was used to evaluate changes in soil vulnerability and landscape degradation between the years 1960 and 2010. A multivariate model was developed to identify the most relevant drivers causing changes in land susceptibility at the district scale. Larger districts, and those with a higher proportion of their total surface area classified as agro-forest, had a significantly lower increase in land susceptibility to degradation during the 50 years when compared with the remaining districts. We conclude that preserving economic viability and ecological connectivity of traditional, extensive agricultural systems is a key measure to mitigate the desertification risk in the Mediterranean region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fifty-Year Sustainability Assessment of Italian Agro-Forest Districts

et al. 2015

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“…Agricultural land loss, as a type of land use/cover change (LUCC), is one of the most important factors that affect food security [1][2][3][4]. Human activities, especially urbanization, have resulted in a significant loss of agricultural land during the past decades around the world [5][6][7][8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Loss in China: A Multiscale Perspective

et al. 2016

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China's rapid urbanization has contributed to a massive agricultural land loss that could threaten its food security. Timely and accurate mapping of urban expansion and urbanization-related agricultural land loss can provide viable measures to be taken for urban planning and agricultural land protection. In this study, urban expansion in China from 2001 to 2013 was mapped using the nighttime stable light (NSL), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and water body data. Urbanization-related agricultural land loss during this time period was then evaluated at national, regional, and metropolitan scales by integrating multiple sources of geographic data. The results revealed that China's total urban area increased from 31,076 km 2 in 2001 to 80,887 km 2 in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 13.36%. This widespread urban expansion consumed 33,080 km 2 of agricultural land during this period. At a regional scale, the eastern region lost 18,542 km 2 or 1.2% of its total agricultural land area. At a metropolitan scale, the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou (SNH) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) areas underwent high levels of agricultural land loss with a decrease of 6.12% (4728 km 2 ) and 6.05% (2702 km 2 ) of their total agricultural land areas, respectively. Special attention should be paid to the PRD, with a decline of 13.30% (1843 km 2 ) of its cropland. Effective policies and strategies should be implemented to mitigate urbanization-related agricultural land loss in the context of China's rapid urbanization.

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“…However, the determination of the demand and the regionalization and operationalization of sustainability and spatial development targets from stakeholder strategies at supranational and national governance levels, for example, due to moving policy targets [12] involve many challenges. The assessment of the impacts of future-oriented land use strategies on regional SD therefore requires both the scientific estimation of the anticipated effects on ecological, economic and social aspects in a research region [13,14] and the contextualization of these effects in a normative, societal frame. Consequently, for a policy-and decision-relevant SIA of land use scenarios, it is necessary to identify topics that are compatible with societal discourses [8].…”

Section: Sustainability Impact Assessment Of Land Use Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stakeholder Strategies for Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios: Analytical Framework and Identifying Land Use Claims

Hermanns

Helming

Schmidt

et al. 2015

Land

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Despite scientific progress in operationalizing sustainable development (SD), it is still hampered by methodological challenges at the regional level. We developed a framework to analyse stakeholder based, SD targets for future land use, which are characterized by different impact levels and spatial references. The framework allows for the analysis of land use demands in the context of SD. We identified societal use targets in north-eastern Germany, particularly for the area type's lowland fens and irrigation fields, represented through strategy documents. We used frame analysis to aggregate and condense the targets into land use claims. Results present a framework for the ex-ante Sustainability Impact Assessment of land use changes at the regional level and the determination and regionalization of the future societal demand for land use functions. For future land use at the regional level, manifold land use claims exist, but on smaller scales, area-specific targets are less apparent. Six key main-use claims and 44 side-use claims were identified at the regional level and for area types. Possible trade-offs among land use claims for land use functions can be identified at each governance level. Implications of the methodological OPEN ACCESSLand 2015, 4 779 approach are discussed according to moving development targets and SD as multi-sector and multi-level governance issues.

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Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany

Cited by 134 publications

References 18 publications

A Fifty-Year Sustainability Assessment of Italian Agro-Forest Districts

A Fifty-Year Sustainability Assessment of Italian Agro-Forest Districts

Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Loss in China: A Multiscale Perspective

Stakeholder Strategies for Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios: Analytical Framework and Identifying Land Use Claims

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