Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China

Abstract

Rapidly demographic aging substantially affects socioeconomic development [1][2][3][4] , presents grand challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability [5][6][7][8] , which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using over 30,000 households survey across China, we show that rural population aging lowers average education level of farmers by 3% (0-11% across different provinces) and reduces farm size by 4% (2-11%) due to land transfer-out and abandonment in 2019. These changes further led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including fertilizers and machinery, which decrease agricultural output by 4% and labor productivity by 9%. Meanwhile, fertilizer use efficiency is reduced by 3%, while increasing fertilizer-related pollutants emission to the environment. New farming models, such as cooperative farming, tend to have larger farm sizes and being operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence reducing total labor requirement. Without policy interventions, agricultural output, labor productivity and fertilizer use efficiency would decrease by 3-16% as a consequence of population aging by 2100, compared to 2019 levels. With policy measures, such as new farming models, this decrease could be reversed and in fact an increase by approximately one-third achieved in the same time period. Our analyses suggest that population aging effects on agriculture could be effectively addressed through labor saving in large-scale new farming models, further contributing to a widespread transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.As life expectancy increases and population fertility rates decline, populations are aging at an accelerating rate globally 9 . Population aging brings grand challenges on multiple global sustainable development goals (SDGs), mainly in relation to no poverty, zero hunger, education, gender equality, decent work and economic growth, responsible consumption and production, etc 1-4, 10, 11 . Labor shortage and innovation constraints may become severe in a society with an aging population, especially in labor-intense economic sectors 3 . Policy interventions to increase birth rates seems to be largely 2 ineffective in many countries where aging issues have been considered serious 12,13 .Alternative strategies urgently need to be developed to achieve and maintain sustainable development paths for human society. Agriculture as a typical labor-intensive industry could be one of the sectors substantially affected by population aging, especially in countries where smallholder farming is prevalent 8, 14 . However, how aging affects agriculture and rural livelihoods has not been well researched or understood to date. This sector is facing substantial challenges in squaring the circle between maintaining food security and improving environmental protection through sustainable intensification at many levels. However, it is indispensable to identify integrated, comprehensive measures to ensure global food security, while protecting the e...

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