Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: Frameworks

Pool, Ian

doi:10.1007/1-4020-3464-4_2

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Age structural transition is a constituent of comprehensive demographic transition frameworks integrated with fertility and mortality transitions. During the transition, there could be a 'disordered cohort flows' due to combination of fertility and mortality declines (Pool, 2000). This cohort flows will have varying implications in social, economic and health as they progress from young age to old age.…”

Section: Age Structural Transition and Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age Structural Transition and Economic Growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia

Navaneetham

2002

SSRN Journal

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Age structural transition is a process and a consequence of shifting age structure from a young aged population to old aged population. It is well known that economic growth in the East Asian countries was significantly contributed by demographic gift, that is decline in young aged population and increase in working aged population. However, little is known about the role of age structure changes on economic growth in the context of South and Southeast Asia. In this paper an attempt has been made to study the nature and process of age structural transition in the countries of South (Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka) and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). Further, this paper also attempts to study the influence of age structure changes on the economic growth in these countries. Time series analysis covering the period 1950-92 has been used for studying the relationship between age structure and economic growth, controlling macroeconomic variables such as investment share of GDP, net foreign balance, share of public consumption expenditure, inflation rate and openness.

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Section: Age Structural Transition and Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age Structural Transition and Economic Growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia

Navaneetham

2002

SSRN Journal

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“…Šire promene u kohortnom talasanju mogu da, preko populacione dividende i kroz oportunentni prozor, daju demografski bonus, što kasnije dovodi do pritiska na fiskalni sistem. Velike kohorte u radnosposobnom dobu u periodu opadanja fertiliteta i niskog intenziteta starenja stanovništva otvaraju "prozor mogućnosti" preko koga nastupa demografska dividenda stvarajući višestruke pozitivne efekte odnosno bonuse (Pool i Wong 2006).…”

Section: Neregularni Kohortni Tokoviunclassified

Theoretical and conceptual framework for population ageing research

Stojilkovic-Gnjatovic

2019

STANOVNISHTVO

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The ageing of the population is a contemporary phenomenon, but its foundations were laid decades ago. Changing age structures and the consequent demographic ageing has only recently become the subject of theoretical (re)consideration, since the theory of demographic transition only values fertility and mortality trajectories. The emergence of ?new? demography takes into account the momentum created by the previous trends in population dynamics and explains the future rejuvenation or ageing of the population. The importance of inherited age structure can be illustrated using an approach that represents distorted cohort flows, showing that baby booms and baby busts can play a crucial role in the future ageing of the population. While in the past it was fertility that predominantly affected age structure, recent research has revealed that changes in life expectancy are becoming a more prominent factor in shaping expected population ageing trends. The general theory of population ageing would have to consider the possible compression of morbidity, dynamic equilibrium, or the expansion of morbidity, since the future course of (healthy) life expectancy is determining the scope of the old and fragile population. The status of theory in demography has long been problematic, since the ?grandiose? theory of demographic transition had to be reevaluated. Modern approaches apply more flexible theoretical frameworks to explain contemporary demographic changes and provide a conceptual background. As such, the important paradigm for the demography of ageing should be the prospective paradigm, which uses information about the longevity of the population and transposes it to population ageing research. The theory of population metabolism seems to adequately define why population ageing is important for cohorts and generation change, especially in cases where distorted cohort flows create prominent cohort oscillation. The need to create adequate policies for changing age composition morphology is highlighted in the domain of institutional adaptation, where the concept of population balance can provide the appropriate framework. Also, as life events tend to take place more often at certain points in the life cycle - for example during adulthood and entering old age - the idea of population densities should be further explored. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 47007: Geografija Srbije]

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“…The term 'demographic turbulence' is used in the sense employed in specialist analyses of population changes that are rapid and that have impacts on societal structures and dynamics. They include: age-compositional changes, particularly when accompanied by fluctuations in birth cohort sizes; large, sudden migratory flows; shifts in family structures; and radical trends in fertility or mortality (Pool 2005(Pool , 2006a(Pool , 2006b. Most social and demographic behaviours are age-specific, and this translates across to economic factors: patterns of production, consumption, supply and demand.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…It implies that women of all marital statuses have a rate in excess of seven births per woman, and married women have almost nine births per woman, the level of American Hutterites, whose rates approach bio-socially feasible maxima.4 The denominator cannot be total change in any period, as some populations have negative growth. This methodology was used inPool 2005Pool , 2006aPool , 2007aPool and 2010 There is another epistemological problem with major development implications. For many economists, 'If the demand for labour equals supply, there is never any involuntary unemployment.…”

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Demographic Turbulence in the Arab World: Implications for Development Policy

Pool

2012

Journal of Peacebuilding & Development

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The Arab Spring's hallmarks of volatility and 'youthfulness' thwart sustained development, political cohesion and peace. Demographic 'youthfulness', due to recent high fertility, is accompanied by rapid growth. But the backstory is even bleaker. Cohort flows, producing large population waves, batter successive life-cycle stages, generating demands for services, markets, resources and capital. To overcome this, policies directed at youth (15-24) are pivotal; failure to integrate youth into the economy and society results in disadvantaged middle-aged parenting populations. This threatens longer-term, sustainable development and triggers political volatility. Yet, as is shown in this article, the international development community has failed to formulate appropriate strategies. Demographic Turbulence, Political Change and DevelopmentThe recent uprisings and other disturbances across the Arab countries have drawn attention to the importance of demographic factors in development as well as politics. During the 'Arab Spring' the media overwhelmingly stressed the youth of Arab countries. A heading in the The Guardian Weekly is typical of many at that time: 'To be Alive, Young and Arab' (Porter 2011). This paper aims to show that in terms of factors of population change, the Arab countries are notably turbulent by comparison both with the world as a whole and with non-Arab Muslim countries. Demographic turbulence is due to significant fluctuations in birth cohort sizes.This article argues that demographic turbulence is a key determinant of systemic underdevelopment and political instability. The term 'demographic turbulence' is used in the sense employed in specialist analyses of population changes that are rapid and that have impacts on societal structures and dynamics. They include: age-compositional changes, particularly when accompanied by fluctuations in birth cohort sizes; large, sudden migratory flows; shifts in family structures; and radical trends in fertility or mortality (Pool 2005(Pool , 2006a(Pool , 2006b. Most social and demographic behaviours are age-specific, and this translates across to economic factors: patterns of production, consumption, supply and demand. Even the fiscal sectors have age-specific drivers, influencing which dependants need tax-based transfers and who pays taxes.The focus of the article is age-structural changes that successively produce youth-age bulges, proportionately by comparison with other age groups, and then generate deficits as cohort sizes decrease. Patterns of bulges followed by deficits are then seen at

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Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: Frameworks

Cited by 14 publications

References 18 publications

Age Structural Transition and Economic Growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia

Age Structural Transition and Economic Growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia

Theoretical and conceptual framework for population ageing research

Demographic Turbulence in the Arab World: Implications for Development Policy

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