Age-specific contributions to changes in the period and cohort life expectancy

Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Schoen, Robert

doi:10.4054/demres.2005.13.3

Cited by 31 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(26 reference statements)

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“…Some recent studies have focused on modeling the period and cohort life expectancies. These models were sumptions that determine the character of mortality vari time (Canudas-Romo and Schoen 2005;Goldstein and Wach 2008;Missov and Lenart 2011). It was shown that if morta life expectancy increases more than period life expectanc…”

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confidence: 99%

Steep Increase in Best‐Practice Cohort Life Expectancy

Shkolnikov

Jdanov

Andreev

et al. 2011

Population & Development Rev

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We analyze trends in best‐practice life expectancy among female cohorts born from 1870 to 1950. Cohorts experience declining rather than constant death rates, and cohort life expectancy usually exceeds period life expectancy. Unobserved mortality rates in non‐extinct cohorts are estimated using the Lee‐Carter model for mortality in 1960–2008. Best‐practice cohort and period life expectancies increased nearly linearly. Across cohorts born from 1870 to 1920 the annual increase in cohort length of life was 0.43 years. Across calendar years from 1870 to 2008, the annual increase was 0.28 years. Cohort life expectancy increased from 53.7 years in the 1870 cohort to 83.8 years in the 1950 cohort. The corresponding cohort/period longevity gap increased from 1.2 to 10.3 years. Among younger cohorts, survival to advanced ages is substantially higher than could have been anticipated by period mortality regimes when these cohorts were young or middle‐aged. A large proportion of the additional expected years of life are being lived at ages 65 and older. This substantially changes the balance between the stages of the life cycle.

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confidence: 99%

Steep Increase in Best‐Practice Cohort Life Expectancy

Shkolnikov

Jdanov

Andreev

et al. 2011

Population & Development Rev

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“…A second, more theoretical application of the senescence-slowing model is to the problem of the relationship between period and cohort life expectancy (Canudos-Romo and Schoen 2005;Goldstein 2006;Goldstein and Wachter 2006;Rodríguez 2006). Here we show that when mortality is shifting steadily to older ages, the cohort lifetable is a senescenceslowed version of the period lifetable.…”

Section: Cohortáperiod Translation As Slowing Senescencementioning

confidence: 96%

How slowing senescence translates into longer life expectancy

Goldstein

Cassidy

2012

Population Studies

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Mortality decline has historically been largely a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. A number of leading researchers on ageing, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of ageing. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences life expectancy. We provide a formula that holds for any baseline hazard function. Our result is analogous to Keyfitz's 'entropy' relationship for changing the level of mortality. Interestingly, the influence of the shape of the baseline schedule on the effect of senescence changes is the complement of that found for level changes. We also provide a generalized formulation that mixes level and slope effects. We illustrate the applicability of these models using recent mortality decline in Japan and the problem of period to cohort translation.

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“…Richards et al [9] found from examining a model of life expectancy based on age and year of birth fits UK 20th century mortality data better than a model based on age and period, suggesting that cohort effects are more significant than period effects. A number of other researchers have recognised a discrepancy emerging between period and cohort life expectancies, with period life expectancy predictions lagging those of cohort in populations experiencing steady improvements in mortality, see [10][11][12][13]. Hence, they question the validity of predicting life expectancy based on period life calculations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Hence, they question the validity of predicting life expectancy based on period life calculations. Indeed, Canudas-Romo and Schoen [12] speculate that the divergence between the two measures is likely to increase in the future as reductions in deaths are concentrated at older ages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%