Advanced Risk Analysis Approach for Optimization of a Water Injection Program 
- Illustration on a Brazilian Field Case

Manceau, E.; Feraille, Mathieu; Zabalza-Mezghani, I.; Portella, Ricardo Cunha Mattos; Reis, Leandro Augusto dos

doi:10.2523/94845-ms

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…They are well known and found a tabular form in literature. Lately, experiment design methodology has been extensively used in petroleum engineering due to its applicability to uncertainty studies 12,13,14 . Related to material balance, only one paper was found on the applicability of experimental design 15 .…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pressure and PVT Uncertainty in Material Balance Calculations

Garcia

Villa

2007

Latin American &Amp; Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference

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Original Oil In Place (OOIP) calculations based on material balance methods are strongly influenced by data uncertainty. Although some research is available in literature, usually the effects of data uncertainty on material balance calculations are rarely considered and quantified in most studies. This work presents an approach to properly quantify and account for the impact of reservoir pressure and PVT data uncertainty on material balance calculations under different drive mechanisms and using different material balance methods. This study allows reservoir engineers properly select the most suitable material balance method when uncertainty on reservoir pressure and PVT data is significant.In this work, two different methodologies are proposed. First, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using generated realizations of reservoir pressure and PVT data to evaluate their effect on material balance calculations. Second, a more robust approach was proposed using experimental design and analysis of variance to systematically evaluate the influence of reservoir pressure and PVT data on material balance calculations in an optimal and integrated fashion. In both methodologies, different material balance methods were used and computed OOIP were compared to reference values from a conceptual reservoir model with known PVT data and simulated reservoir pressure. A MATLAB-based program, with graphical user interface, was coded for this purpose 1 .

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Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pressure and PVT Uncertainty in Material Balance Calculations

Garcia

Villa

2007

Latin American &Amp; Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference

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“…This time the analysis employed the so-called "experimental design" technique using the Cougar software (11). 16 simulation models combining the variables on Table 2 were built in accordance to linear type experimental planning.…”

Section: Variablementioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of the Value of Information and Long Horizontal Wells in the Appraisal and Development Studies of a Brazilian Offshore Heavy-Oil Reservoir

Branco

Pinto

Tinoco

et al. 2005

Proceedings of SPE/PS-CIM/CHOA International Thermal Operations and Heavy Oil Symposium

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fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractRecent exploration efforts in the Campos Basin, offshore Brazil, have resulted into important discoveries of what is known as "offshore heavy oil" (API gravities below 18 and reservoir viscosities above 20 cp). Actually, these accumulations have been known since the beginning of the development of the Basin, in the 80s, but they were never given a chance of development due to the technology challenges involved. The maturation of lighter oil fields, associated with recent technology developments (1,2,3), has boosted the interest for these heavy oil resources set aside for many years. This paper describes the simulation model building process, the difficult task of assigning scarcely sampled rock and fluid properties, the uncertainty study and the use of quality maps for placing the wells. Simulations results have shown the importance of the well footage and its effectiveness in contacting the reservoir rock.

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“…A proxy model needs to satisfy the two following requirements: -to reproduce the behavior of the simulated data: the model should fit the simulations already performed using the fluid flow simulator; -to predict reliably the behavior of the production response for any value of the parameters where no simulations had been performed. Recent work [1,2] has been performed on the subject of uncertainty management in reservoir engineering. These authors construct 1st or 2nd order polynomial proxy models using classical experimental designs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a Reliable Quantification of Uncertainty on Production Forecasts: Adaptive Experimental Designs

Scheidt

Zabalza-Mezghani

Feraille

et al. 2007

Oil & Gas Science and Technology - Rev. IFP

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Résumé -Vers une quantification fiable des incertitudes sur les estimations de production : plans d'expériences adaptatifs -La quantification des incertitudes est une phase essentielle dans l'évaluation des réservoirs pétroliers. La précision des estimations de production est fortement liée à l'incertitude sur les variables qui contrôlent les performances du réservoir (perméabilité, contact huile-eau, etc.). Le problème est complexe parce que l'effet des variables sur les performances du réservoir est souvent nonrégulier, ce qui ne peut être détecté a priori. La méthode des plans d'expériences est généralement utilisée pour quantifier les incertitudes sur la production et obtenir une représentation probabiliste de cette dernière, avec par exemple la détermination de scenarii de production P90, P50 et P10. En sélectionnant de manière optimale les simulations à effectuer, les plans d'expériences permettent la construction d'un modèle approché qui reproduit l'impact des paramètres incertains sur les performances du réservoir. L'utilisation de plan d'expériences permet de réaliser des analyses de risque tout en effectuant un nombre limité de simulations potentiellement très coûteuses en temps de calcul. Toutefois, l'utilisation des plans d'expériences est généralement associée à la construction de surfaces de réponses polynomiales de faible degré, elle montre ses limites dès lors que les paramètres incertains ont un impact non-régulier sur la réponse en production. Nous présentons une nouvelle approche pour l'analyse de risque, fiable y compris lorsque l'impact des paramètres sur la réponse est non-régulier. Nous proposons de construire des plans d'expériences évolu-tifs, pour intégrer graduellement les non-régularités. Partant d'un plan d'expériences initial, la méthodo-logie détermine itérativement de nouvelles simulations susceptibles d'être informatives sur le comportement de la réponse. Inspirée de méthodes statistiques et de plans d'expériences, cette approche a montré son efficacité pour la modélisation de réponses complexes et non-régulières. Elle fournit une estimation fiable des incertitudes sur les estimations de production. (e.g. permeability, oil-water contact, etc.). The problem is complex, since the effect of the variables on the reservoir performance is often non-linear, which cannot be inferred a priori. Abstract

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Advanced Risk Analysis Approach for Optimization of a Water Injection Program - Illustration on a Brazilian Field Case

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Pressure and PVT Uncertainty in Material Balance Calculations

Pressure and PVT Uncertainty in Material Balance Calculations

The Role of the Value of Information and Long Horizontal Wells in the Appraisal and Development Studies of a Brazilian Offshore Heavy-Oil Reservoir

Toward a Reliable Quantification of Uncertainty on Production Forecasts: Adaptive Experimental Designs

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